Although today’s Washington Post/ABC poll gives Mitt Romney no reason to panic–he’s down just one point among likely voters–it should at least raise a red flag: Romney does not seem to be pulling away on the economy, the centerpiece of his campaign. But even more frustrating for the campaign may be that Romney picked a fight he now seems to be losing: Medicare. According to the poll, he’s trailing the president on that question too.
Before Romney picked Paul Ryan as his running mate, Gallup’s polling showed that few were thinking about Medicare heading into the election. Think of it as the opportunity cost–which was raised at the time–of diverting the campaign messaging away from the economy. But you can divert attention from the economy if it’s to an issue voters care about, and if you can win the argument over it. Here’s Gallup’s mid-August chart of the “non-economic” issue voters thought presented the “most important problem” (most recent results from left):
See “care for the elderly/Medicare” way down there? It went from 1 percent to zero percent. Now, obviously introducing it as a major campaign theme will increase its importance. The New York Times claimed it had become a key issue in swing states, but their poll was so thoroughly discredited as to be useless. And if Romney does succeed in making Medicare a top voter priority, he has another problem: Gallup found two weeks ago that voters give Obama a 12-point advantage on that issue. (Today’s poll has Romney within five points on the question.) That may change, but it seems Romney may have mimicked, rather than learned from, Obama’s health care mistake. Even after Obama passed health care reform, making it by far the most talked-about issue, it remained low on the list of priorities for voters heading into the following election. With time, health care rose on that list of priorities–in part because voters hated the new law so much they resolved to get rid of it.
Obama made two mistakes: he ignored more important issues in favor of health care, and then lost the argument over it once he elevated it in voters’ minds. Romney has the winning argument on the economy, but he’s elevated an issue that just a month ago was far from voters’ top priority. If he loses the Medicare argument, he’ll replicate both of those mistakes.
This is not to say that Medicare shouldn’t be reformed. Indeed, entitlements need reforming even if it’s not too popular politically, and the Democrats’ Mediscare tactics are designed to uphold an unsustainable status quo and strike a devastating blow to the reform agenda in the service of maintaining their hold on power.
Which brings up another challenge for the Romney campaign: to succeed, they must convince voters that if Obama is re-elected, and then chooses to do nothing, entitlements will bring on a fiscal disaster.
It’s a worthy and responsible argument to make, but until voters develop that same sense of urgency, their campaign has shifted from facts (unemployment is high) to speculation (Obama will let Medicare go bankrupt). As I wrote after the Ryan selection, voters were enthused about having “a choice, not a referendum,” as the popular refrain went. But giving voters an argument isn’t good enough; Romney will have to win that argument too. Today’s poll is another indication that he’s struggling to do more than break even on this issue.
The Democrats have been using mediscare tatics for years now, give theRommey/Ryan team a little more time to get the facts out. Old people are not stupid and will understand Obama's dishonesty,incompetence and negligence on the medicare issue.
I had those misgivings early on about the Ryan selection. The thing is, it did not seem that voters were concerned shorlty after the Ryan selection. What may have changed was the Democrats hammering on the issue. One thing Romney could do is appeal to the self-interest of those seniors who are exempt from any Ryan reform proposal. All people currently over 53 years of age are exempt from a "Ryan" plan. Romney needs to hammer back with that. n nMy original instincts about the Ryan selction may have been right. It was a stupid move to take the focus away from economic issues.
McCain and Obama both agreed on cutting $500 billion from Medicare by reducing the rate of future increase of certain payments to providers. Calculating that over a later time frame (2013-2022 instead of 2010-2019) yields $716 billion instead of $500 billion. Bending the cost curve down is helping to strengthen and save Medicare. After 2007, Congress put "Pay As You Go" back into effect. The $716 billion from Medicare is counted against the costs in the Affordable Care Act to show that the latter is revenue neutral, but no money is coming from Medicare taxes or its trust fund to pay for anything in Obamacare. I wonder what it is that Romney and Ryan are opposed to? Bending the Medicare cost curve down, or requiring that all new federal spending is offset by cuts in other areas?
Also, the WaPo/ABC poll apparently uses a "likely voter" screen to produce an electorate that's 80 % white — even whiter than the 2010 elections! How likely is *THAT*, considering the generic ballot doesn't trend Republican this year, Obama is spending record sums on mobilizing minorities … But never mind — Romney still loses according to this poll!
Romney has yet to make a sustained argument for his candidacy that cuts through the clutter. Political junkies report his advisors and the candidate assume his victory is inevitable given the economy and this certainty may be pulling his punches. He does not want to cross the line into the absolutely critical premise that has already has time and time again been used against him: that his opponent is ineffective and incompetent because he is–as the children say–a bad bad man. He still floats above his own campaign, periodically going into defense to point out what Obama programs he would take as his talking points of the day. His debate performance had better be a killer.
If Romney thinks keeping "ELEMENTS" of Obamacare with strengthen his position with American voters – and is a calculation that will serve him well in the valuation we have of his character – then he is a big fat fool. n nHe promised to REPEAL the whole thing. n nFailure to do so will put him in a nice fat pigeon hole with other nice fat RINOS who are destined to land in the bay off the ship from whence Tea Partiers are tossing them along with STAMPED TEA BALES. n nFew will be shocked. n nMany will March to a Constitutional Drummer and sing a very different tune – but we won't be "THERE FOR THE RINOS" when the RINOS want their bacon pulled out of the fires of civil war. n nThe RINOS will have to run to the DIMS and get their Just Deserts from those quarters.