After a week that has made it appear as if the presidential election is slipping away from him, Mitt Romney got a bit of good news this morning when Rasmussen released its latest daily tracking poll showing him with a narrow 47-46 percent lead over President Obama. It’s the first time in a week that Romney has had any kind of a lead and only a couple of days ago had fallen a few points behind in this survey.
Given the avalanche of bad results the Republican has gotten in the past few days, the Rasmussen numbers provide a dose of badly needed relief for Romney. Polls released in the last week have shown President Obama with leads as large as 7 points (Gallup), 6 points (CNN), 5 points (Fox News) and 3 points (Reuters). All reflected a clear post-Democratic convention bounce for the president that was in no way diminished by the dismal jobs report released on Friday. The expectation in some quarters is that this trend will continue as the president reaps the benefit of leading the nation during a time of crisis in the aftermath of the attacks on American embassies in the Middle East. But the Rasmussen survey provides at least one ray of hope for the GOP in that it shows that the post-Convention bubble may have burst. Indeed, it may be the harbinger of results from other sources that may show the race tightening rather than moving even further in Obama’s direction.
Democrats will be quick to point out that Rasmussen’s results have tended to favor the Republican throughout the race and that its focus on likely rather than registered voters may underestimate Democratic turnout in November. We won’t know until then whether Rasmussen’s turnout model is more accurate than other pollsters who are assuming that the president will duplicate his 2008 effort, when an outpouring of minority and young voters propelled him to a decisive victory.
However, Rasmussen’s numbers, which show, as has been the case throughout the year, more enthusiasm on the right than on the left, may indicate that contrary to the prevailing narrative of the last week, the campaign is essentially back to where it was two weeks ago in a virtual stalemate. That is the best indication that the Charlotte bounce is over since it appeared as if Democrats had closed the enthusiasm gap after the convention.
Nevertheless, Republicans should not be surprised if the all out media assault on their candidate in the last 24 hours after his criticism of administration apologies to Islamists will produce another surge for the president. Many in the country may agree with the GOP candidate that the initial apology to rioters that was produced by the U.S. Embassy in Cairo, Egypt was disgraceful. Others may expect that the bungling of U.S. security in Libya and the administration’s supine posture in Egypt will become problems rather than strengths. But once the chattering classes settle on a theme to the disadvantage of conservatives, whether it is Romney’s foreign trip or the supposed brilliance of speakers at the Democratic convention, it has a way of becoming accepted conventional wisdom.
That said, though the polls have shown in the last week just how decisive an advantage a compliant media can be for the president, the latest results demonstrate that the race remains tight with Romney still very much in the hunt.
The whole tempest about what Romney said or didn't say well enough the last couple of days is limited to the world of pundits and journalists. n n nThe larger issue on everybody's mind is how did the US get to this juncture, and the answer is Obama. n n
Well said, MainesMichael. Even the low info voter probably has heard over 3.5 yrs that Obambi is an Apologist for our great Nation and may well decide we are exactly where we are in world affairs due to his leadership – or should I say the lack thereof.
You know what else might happen? People might realizr that Romney's comments were reasonable and justified. They might realize that when our embassador is killed on the anniversary of 9/11 in a country we unilaterally invaded without congressional authorization it might have to do with more than a friggin obscure film on Youtube. n nHow about every time Libya is mentioned we mention that Obama didn't get congressional authorization for his invasion. Point out that htis eans he had less legitimacy than Bush for his military adventurism. Over and over it should be said just to show how shallow the MSM critique of Romney actually is. n n How about places like Commentary link to Romnety's statements in full and use their perch (peripheral as it is sadly) to do some actual journalism and find out from these pundits and journalists who are carrying water for the president exactly what their issue is and make it clear using the same skills and tricks the MSM use so blatantly to reveal the MSMs partisan ireesponsability.
If Romney softens his criticism of Obama and his Middle East policies and efforts, he will reenforce why conservatives have been uneasy about his candidacy. He should be relentless in castigating a foreign policy that extends a handshake to sworn enemies, and a back hand to Israel's prime minister. Ads emphasizing this outrageous policy should run constantly in Florida and swing state areas with large Jewish populations. Frankly, I"m not hopeful. Although what you say in this post has merit, it does seem in these and other, even favorable, polls that Romney has a ceiling around 46/47 and Obama a higher one. If so, that spells defeat.
Enough of your negativity! What makes you think that Romney will soften his criticism? On the contrary, he stood tall at yesterday's impromptu press conference. Lesser people would have walked his comments back with the excuse of "standing together in this moment ,etc…" nYou must have missed the fact that- for the first time- every conservative critic of Romney (Mark Levin, Laura Ingraham,Rush Limbaugh,Sarah Palin, for starters)have seen that it is Romney who has 'that spine of steel". nAnd, as to your comments on polls, it is just the contrary. Obama has not gone over 46/47 percent for a year now and, virtually always, the remaining undecided break for the challenger. Prediction: Romney 51 Obama 49.
Michael, you sound like my wife: "enough of your negativity." You can imagine what it is like living with me. I don't want to recite verse after verse, but we know how Romney has flipped on issues or softened his stands, most recently saying that he likes part of Obamacare. This doesn't inspire great hope. As far as the polls are concerned, go to RealClear Politics and you will see recent polling that has Obama at 50 or above. Look, my friend, I'm just trying to look at this race objectively. I liked what he said about the attacks on the embassies and Obama's snub of Bibi. But, again, I don't believe he will be relentless in his criticisms. If wrong, I'll gladly concede.
yup- i'd hate to live with you 24 hours a day…..I firmly believe that he will stick to his guns- and more- on his criticism of the Obama foreign policy, because he has the facts to back him up and because every time the President opens his mouth, he looks like a bored professor giving a lecture- and Romney is not connecting with the voters???_A word sbout clearClear- it is am amalgam of bad polls, so the result is skewed. I trust Rasmussen because he has had the most accurate predictions in recent years._As far as Obamacare- one reason why Romney never repudiated his own law in Mass. was because he actually believes that some of the items in Obamacare are good. And many Americans believe that too. The problem with Obamacare is not that there are some actual benefits but that it is a law of 2700 pages- full of taxes and directives by the government. That law ,Romney wil lsurely repudiate when he gets elected. Only then can we draft a much smaller ,more effective law. And on November 6, I hope you will join us all in electing a new President!
Well, given my eight hours of nighttime sleep, and about an hour nap, my wife bears with me for only fifteen hours a day. Again, Michael, we don't disagree on Romney's response. It's over how sustained it will be. I'll tell you what I feel uncomfortable about that conservatives do, and I think you're doing it. They cherry pick polls. If a poll agrees with one's bias, that becomes the gold standard. If not, they are "bad" polls. I don't want to seem pompous(another occasional accusation from my wife), but I've had some experience with polls. In fact, I actually did neighborhood polling for Gallup when they did face to face polls, and I was a conservative then as I am now. n nMany of these are public, and therefore have reputations that have to be protected. Sure, some are better than others, but that does not mean there is a conspiracy against us. The differences are legitimate and within the polling community recognized as being so. nWill I join you in electing a new President? If you live in Virginia, I'll take the liberty of inviting you to an election night party at my son's(a good conservative)and will provide the champagne. But, of course, as I told my son already, I'm not going to be happy with the results. He, like my wife and you, chastised me for my negativity.
Thanks for your intelligent reply! you may not think so but I can be objective too. BTW- real clear politics had obama at 48 percent and Romney at 45 percent yesterday- and this was AFTER the convention bump! My point about polls was that most of them-until now- are about registered voters- a truly useless poll, considering that at the last election (surely one with great enthusiasm by the left) only 63 (sixty-three!!) percent of the voters actually voted. And the non-voters are skewed towards to Democrats,so, I only consider likely voters..Realclearpolitics must include all polls- so , they will will be skewed towards the left..As far as the actual polls, I remember Rasmussen telling Hannity at the last election (when his results indicated an Obama victory) that he only gives the figures and doesn't take sides. So, I believe his polls over any other-and he has Romney at 47, Obama at 46 nationally. By the way, I cannot remember the name of the study but it analyzed all polls and showed that all polls commisioned by the media (ABC,NBC,CBS,etc..) were all wrong. Rasmussen and another independent (not gallup) poll were the most accurate. So, I distrust any poll by anyone else.
Earlier comment too long so i had to divide it. My last comment is about the recent remarks by Romney ob the cairo embassy invasion. In spite of the relentless attack by MSNBC and other leftists , this may actually help Romney more. The base, which as been lukewarm about Romney till now, is livid about this bias and is now fully backing Romney(listen to the radio hosts and other outlets). It will solidify his base support. This election will be very close and this may be Romney's trump card in the election.
Hopefully folks will see that Obama is not leading in this crisis: 1)after a brief statement he went back to campaining 2) the Marines in Cairo were told not to carry live ammo, 3) we initially apologized for exercising free speech, 4) these were coordinated attacks on 9/11 and we were completely unprepared, 5) the situation appears to be spiraling out of control, 6) Obama can't say if Egypt is an ally or an enemy. I agree that the chattering class' perspective often has a way of becoming conventional wisdom but at some point the voters wake up (see 2010 election results).
I think this bizarre overreach by the media will lead to a backlash. It is so fundamentally wrong and unfair that I think the middle of the roaders will be repulsed and true conservatives will rally around it.
I agree with all the posts in their condemnation of Obama's reactions and Middle Eastern policies. Politically, however, unless Romney runs with this issue, the political effect will not be what we hope. nMy fears may be unfolding. Just this morning I heard and read that Romney is turning back to economic issues(sources: a conservative daily in my area and a Fox news report).