Shortly before protestors poured into the streets of Cairo’s Tahrir Square to put the final nail into the coffin of Hosni Mubarak’s regime, the headline on the Presidential Daily Brief produced by the Central Intelligence Agency for the president was, according to word among administration officials, something to the effect of “Tunisian Unrest Unlikely to Spread to Egypt.”
It is no secret that the Arab Spring uprisings took not only the United States by surprise, but also the Muslim Brotherhood and more radical Islamists as well. The Muslim Brotherhood filled the vacuum but, in recent days, the radicals appear to be unfurling a deliberate plan to whip up fervor and seize the initiative. The Bolsheviks are now supplanting the Mensheviks. This, too, appears to have caught the CIA and many of our diplomats stationed in the Middle East by surprise. It shouldn’t have: During the Iranian crisis 33-years ago, radicals seized the US Embassy as much to rally the hardliners for domestic reasons as they did out of animus toward the United States.
The notion that this was a spontaneous reaction to a provocative film is inane. After all, someone dubbed that film and distributed it widely with nary a U.S. official aware. Facebook was used to inflame tensions and call for rallies. Perhaps, once again, diplomats are spending too much time engaging with high level officials to the detriment of spending time on the street, not with intellectuals, but taking the pulse of more disgruntled segments of society. A recent traveler to Tunisia told me a few days ago that many young people there were listless, just waiting for something to happen.
In subsequent days, the contradictions about whether the United States had warning ahead of time will get resolved. It would be tragic if, more than a decade after 9/11, some in the administration had foreknowledge but could not get that information to the right people in time.
Congress was correct to investigate the intelligence failures that colored the George W. Bush administration decision to intervene in Iraq. Intelligence failures under the Obama administration may be different, but their implications could be just as profound. Perhaps it is time—in a serious, non-partisan way—to examine why it is that the CIA and State Department continue to be caught so flat-footed in the Arab world.
What we are not likely to see is a Congressional investigation into the CIA's continued inistence under two presidents that Iran had abandonded its nuclear program.
Yeah,let's have another Church investigation;that was so helpful.
Let's investigate and eliminate this bast-rd from the web. He/she takes too much space breathing.
There is another issue that is related to the massive intelligence failure that has been display these last few days. n nAnd this issue has to do with Iran. n nIsrael has been told time and again that the US will know instantaneously the moment Iran decides to convert it's stockpile into a deliverable bomb. Needless to say, this will moment be based in US Intelligence estimates. n nGiven the massive Intelligence failure in countries far easier to penetrate than the closed society that is Iran, would you, if you are Israel, trust the CIA to know when that moment arrives?
Romney has said that he agrees with Obama, that the red line is actual construction of a nuclear delivery system–but that he would have imposed sanctions earlier (and presumably been less generous in negotiations). But for those looking for a commitment under (an increasingly unlikely) Romney Presidency for setting of red lines short of that followed by U.S. military action–you'll probably be disappointed.
I can imagine shortly – in fact maybe within only a few minutes — after parts of Tel Aviv are falling to the ground from a mushroom cloud, a communique from the White House arriving in Bibi’s bunker announcing that “We now are absolutely certain Iran has a nuclear bomb.”
Kudos to the CIA and State dept., as incompetence is now a virtue under this administration, at least judging by the standards of our Nobel prize winning prez.
You can't collect much intelligence when your primary strategy is drones.
Sorry to interrupt the flow of Michael's flow, but do the Republicans have a presidential candidate?
Well, they have a series of strategy honchos marketing a Presidential candidate, chief of whom is one Mitt Romney. But this doesn't seem to be working out. n nWhen an interviewer asked Romney to respond to Obama's accusation that Presidential candiate Romney had sinned by noticing the administration's reflexive strategy of catering to the delicately offended sensitivities of Muslim Huns, Vandals, and wreckers, chief strategist Romney and candidate Romney spoke in one voice, laying out their unique vision for cutting through the negative clutter of the White House liberal media machine: "Well, this is politics. I’m not going to worry about the campaign.” n n"Well, this is politics, I'm not going to worry about the campaign." So, far this is faring about how you would expect. The GOP will manage to blow two successive Presidential elections in tanking economies. One where the incumbent was a Republican and one where the incumbent was what you might have assumed was a highly vulnerable Democrat. n nBut then that would be "politics."
Rumsfeld may have been onto something in his pithy Rules for Living: n n"[T]here are known knowns; there are things we know that we know. nThere are known unknowns; that is to say there are things that, we now know we don't know. nBut there are also unknown unknowns – there are things we do not know, we don't know" n nThat and "stuff happens". n n n n
"Congress was correct to investigate the intelligence failures that colored the George W. Bush administration decision to intervene in Iraq" n na war you supported. You can't play both sides of the fence.
David Petraeus a poltical hack who shapes the output to fit the political agenda? Leon Panetta doing the bidding of Obama's campaign? n nWhere do you get such crazy talk? Oh wait, from THEM that's who.
If only U.S. intel was awful viz a viz the Arab World. Analysts were absolutely shocked when North Korea and Pakistan tested their nuclear devices. In both cases, they thought that capability for the respective countries was at least two years away.
Hillary Clinton will resign by perhaps no later than Tuesday. Obama is going to throw her under the bus. John Kerry will replace Hillary.