As I’ve noted before, just about every poll taken in the last year shows that President Obama is likely to lose ground among Jewish voters when compared to his performance in 2008. That’s also the finding of a new American Jewish Committee poll of Jewish voters in Florida. But while, as JTA notes, both Republicans and Democrats have sought to spin the numbers as good news for their side, in this case President Obama’s supporters have the stronger case.
The poll shows that the president leads Mitt Romney by a 69-25 percentage-point margin with five percent undecided. That is less than the 74-78 percent of the Jewish vote Obama got in 2008. But it is far less of a decrease than other polls have shown. More to the point, if these results hold up, it is not enough of a shift to be considered large enough to help swing the state if Florida turns out to be close. For that to happen, the GOP needs to hold Obama closer to 60 percent than 70 and get Romney up over the 30 percent margin. The drop in Obama’s support is explained by the answers to poll questions that show the positions of the majority of Jewish voters on topics like Israel and Iran to be significantly different from those of the administration. But those issues don’t appear to be enough to convince enough Jewish Democrats and independents to forsake the president in favor of Romney.
The poll illustrates something we already knew. The vast majority of Jewish voters identify with the Democratic Party and are more liberal than the rest of the population. Though the Democrats hold on the Jewish vote is, as a Pew survey proved, slipping, the gap between the parties is still not close.
There is also some cognitive dissonance at play here. While a majority of those polled support the president’s handling of relations with Israel, an even larger majority approve of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and support an Israeli attack on Iran that the president has worked harder to prevent than he has to stop Iran’s nuclear program. Clearly some of those who back Israel haven’t connected the dots between the candidates’ positions on the issues and their own.
But while the decline in Jewish support for Obama in this survey is enough to support, as do other polls, the conclusion that the president’s stand on Israel has hurt him, it is still only a marginal rather than a decisive shift. Indeed, if Obama can still wind up getting 70 percent of the Jewish vote after years of Israel-bashing and a clear determination not to act on the Iranian nuclear threat, then it must be conceded that other issues, such as the Democrats’ class warfare attack on Romney or the fake “war on women,” means more to Jewish voters than Israel.
It should be noted, as with other polls, that this poll’s credibility rests on its sample. In this case, the overall sample is not large, consisting as it does of only 254 registered voters. More to the point, it may undercount the Orthodox, who tend to be more conservative and Republican than other Jews, since it shows that they are only three percent of the total, a number that may be low even for Florida.
That said, Jewish Democrats have good reason to be encouraged by this poll. As for the GOP, it shows they need to keep hammering away on Israel and Iran — points that are being made in ad buys in Florida targeting Jewish voters — if they hope to succeed in November.
UPDATE:
The American Jewish Committee has now belatedly released the margin of error for this survey as being six percent. While earlier I pointed out that the sample size for this poll was small and that it may have undercounted Orthodox Jews, having such a big margin of error seriously undermines its credibility. This means that President Obama’s share of the Florida Jewish vote could be as low here as 63 percent (as well as being as high as 75 percent). That should calm the nerves of some Republicans who had to be perplexed by the results as well as cause Democrats to restrain their glee. But it should also encourage the GOP to redouble their efforts in this sector since, as I wrote, the breakdown on issues like Israel and Iran ought to give some room for Romney to gain ground at the president’s expense.
What idiot thought that the Jewish vote in Fla. was a factor in this election? LOL
An anti-Semitic IDIOT has spoken. Why is it printed? Shame on Commentary.
It's easy to be an anti-semite these days,merely arguing with a Contenionista is enough for the label. n nCrying too much wolf,vanny
Rex, your mother and father have told you to at least attempt to be polite to Aunt Ethel and Uncle Harry. And, young man, you may find it hilarious to stick the peas and the mashed potato up your nostrils, but you are mistaken if you think this will go over when you become a grown up.
I've said this before on Commentary, but it's relevant to Jonathan's post to say it again: most Jews have an irrational fear and dislike of evangelical Christians whom they associate with Republicans. It's a very difficult obstacle for Republicans to overcome, as Jonathan's figures show.
irrational fear and dislike n nIt's rational on both counts.
I am not a Christian—but why should we cut slack for such bigotry? Yes, these folks are indeed bigots. There is no rational reason for this unease toward conservative Christians. Bigotry is the only reasonable explanation.
There is no rational reason for this unease n nHow about history,especially contemporary history.Today, Many ECs view the Jews as a tool to be used to forward their mystical agenda. nAsk these folks what happens to Jewish souls post mortem(At least they're not forced into Mormanic conversions as Mitt has performed)
Rational at the time, rexford. Not necessarily rational today, only explainable, and much more complex than simple bigotry. and if we are looking at historic anti-Semitism, the anti-semtiism of working class Catholics, a traditional Democratic consituency, was just as big a danger. And the genteel country club anti-Semites today are just as likely to be Obama Democrats as Republicans. n nBut we need to worry about who are enemies are today, not who they were in the past. Jews have just as many enemies today among main line liberal churches, secularists, and that segment of the extreme left that is strongly atheist. (No, I am not saying all atheists nor am I saying the entire left.) But the anti-Semitism of liberals is seldom on the radar screen, or is excused. n n I don't care what someone thinks will happen to me after I die. I am more concerned about how they treat me while I am alive. Or whether they will grant me the right to self defense or ridicule me for it. And whether they are willing to stand by and see me murdered. n nWhich is why I find your sudden concern for Jews so heart warming.
And whether they are willing to stand by and see me murdered. n nJoin the army O Fearful one,at least you might get to take out a few Islamic killers before they get you.
You are trying to reason with a wall, a u05d3u05d1u05d9u05dc
You're understanding of Christian Zionism is beyond ignorant. It is itself EC, as in EC Comics. What Rex Worry?
Stealth efforts at conversion are one reason, or should be. I have seen pro-Israel rallies used as cover for missionary work, and I have no doubt that one is as sincere and as well meant as the other. And there is Evangelical funding for groups like Jews for That Certain Man, that take advantage of the assimilated, the ignorant and the lonely, by misrepresenting both Judaism and Christianity, in order to seduce them into Christianity, without realizing that it is equivalent to murdering them spiritually.
What you say is true, however, we have only ourselves to blame, if we do not value our heritage and pass our traditions on to our children.
Enough about the Jewish vote! We are already afraid of Obama's ground troops who will follow us into the voting booth if they think we are about to vote our conscience. n nand, it's not as though Romney offers anything more than being the 'NObama'. nRomney may look presidential, but no one will ever know why he thought politics was a good second career after vulture capitalism made him rich.
n nI would discount this poll. 46 Liberal – 20 Conservative… That poll is skewed.
Aside from this year's election implications, the more disturbing message is that Israel's fate is no longer on American Jews' priority list. Heaven help us.
the more disturbing message n nI suggest you try to understand this message,and stop blaming the messenger.
Enough already of all these polls !! 254 people represent hundreds of thousands?? Come on ! I wil labsolutely discount any polls from now onwards unless it has a large sample.
there you go again……a poll of 254 people, not enough to even fill a moderate-sized synagogue, and you imply that this a real poll??? Enough already of al lthese polls. I will discount any poll that is a) f an unrealistic size and b) that is so skewed to democrats that it is virtually worthless._And- to echo nhrds- if this is indeed what will happen, then I wash my hands of the (non- orthodox) Jews in the US. They will rue the day that they voted for Obama.
Michael, "not enough to even fill a moderate-sized synagogue……." Perhaps the greatest line in response to a post that I've read on Commentary. I wonder what mine of about 100 on the holidays would show?
well, if you have problems to fill the sanctuary, i'll be happy to volunteer to lead your services…(serious about that!) and thank you for your compliment.
" wonder what mine of about 100 on the holidays would show" nPlease clarify what the 100 represents -your synagogue's seating capacity, your synagogue's attendance, or your poll?
These polls are all out of whack… Apparently the Leftwing media is doing a great job trying to convince us that Obama already had this thing wrapped up… I don't see how.
And, adding another criticism of the poll: three percent are orthodox??? This is laughable. It should be at least 15 percent orthodox and this would invalidate this poll totally. Throw this poll out.
The urgent Democratic strategy and priority these days, loyally taken up by all their allies in the media, is to depress Republican turnout. The means they are employing is the "It's all over but the shouting approach." Polling is THE novel twist this election cycle. Flood the media with polls showing Obama ahead and gaining; then have the same media comment on the polling again and again in order to discourage Republican voters. The dubiousness of the statistics in most of the latest batch of polls, chiefly the preposterous oversampling of democrats, is NEVER to be mentioned in the MSM. Just get the noise up around the subject of polling and keep it there as more bogus polling is churned out. Repeat the tactic as necessary. In other words, lying about projections of who may be expected to show up in November is THE first step in turning the lie into a reality.
you are right on the money….everyone has an agenda and most of the polls from newsmedia have the agenda of re-electing Obama……gallup and rasmussen are the best in the busienss and may be theonly ones who shoot straight. They are still calling the race a tossup.
Orthodox Jews are are 40% of NY Jewry according to the latest survey by the NY Federation. In Florida they are at least 15%. The poll used random dialing, and did not compensate for the fact that most Orthodox live in high density neighborhoods. Clearly the Poll is deeply flawed.
The very same David Harris who is the head of the American Jewish Committee, the organization which did the poll, is the David Harris who is the head of the National Jewish Democratic Council!!!
The Florida Jews are the same as the West End Jews. nThey do not care about Israel. Furthermore the mass media will go a long way to misrepresent meaningless polls. DWS will not stop lying to whoever wants her opinion.
Since most Jews in the United States are secular, it is logical they will find affinity in the Democratic Party, which is increasingly the home of secular people. It doesn't matter how pro-Israel Republicans claim to be. Many Jews are ill at ease with the evangelical Christianity found among the GOP's most loyal voters.
Romney should announce that one of his first acts in office will be to free Jonathan Pollard as an act of mercy. It will gain him support in the ajewish community anf preempt an Obama "October surprise"
it won't help him even a tiny bit in the elusive non-Jewish independent vote he has made his great white campaign whale. won't happen.