American critics of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have spent the time since his election in early 2009 longing for someone who could knock the Likud leader off his perch. But luckily for Netanyahu, his most likely rivals, such as former Kadima Party leader Tzipi Livni, have crashed and burned in the intervening years. Ironically, the latest figure to raise the hopes of American Bibi-bashers is someone who actually crashed and burned before Netanyahu’s second term as prime minister began. His predecessor Ehud Olmert has been the subject of a mini-boomlet among some Americans desperate for a new challenger to the incumbent, but you have to take a pretty cynical view of Israeli society to believe that the suspended sentence and fine he was given today by a judge for his conviction for breach of public trust will act as a springboard for a comeback.
Though left-wing American groups like J Street have treated him like a hero, his checkered ethical record as well as the fact that he is widely considered his country’s least successful leader in history are the sort of handicaps that ought to daunt even the boldest of politicians. Though Netanyahu is going through a rough patch right now after a few years of being unchallenged, if the best his liberal American detractors can come up with is someone like Olmert, then he has little to worry about at the next election.
It is true that Olmert is attempting to spin his evasion of jail time on corruption charges as a vindication. But even by the rough and tumble standards of Israeli politics, it’s hard to imagine that his public apology for misbehavior will be seen as a good reason to put him back into the prime minister’s office. As the judge said at his sentencing, the reason he got such a light sentence (which may be appealed by prosecutors) was because he had already suffered the serious penalty of being driven from office under an ethical cloud.
The fact that his suspended sentence will almost certainly be still in effect when Israeli voters go to the polls sometime next year is also a problem. So, too, is the fact that he faces trial on other serious corruption charges relating to bribery and influence peddling during his years as mayor of Jerusalem. Olmert is a slippery character and his luck may hold in the coming trial as it did in the last one when, despite a large body of evidence pointing to his guilt, he was only convicted on a lesser charge. But as much as he may pretend to be the victim of a political witch-hunt, these are not the sorts of resume items that help you win elections.
Those who speak of an Olmert comeback can point to the way Benjamin Netanyahu rose from the political dead after his ignominious defeat in 1999 after three not terribly popular years as prime minister. It’s true that given time, all political sins might be forgiven. But Netanyahu spent the interim between his two terms rebuilding his reputation with a successful term as finance minister, not dodging jail. For all of his drawbacks, it should also be pointed out that unlike Olmert, Netanyahu did not preside over a disastrous military campaign such as the 2006 Lebanon War. Nor did his poll numbers ever drop as low as those of Olmert, who at one point had a favorability rating that was so miniscule it was actually within the survey’s margin of error raising the theoretical possibility that no one in the country thought he was doing a good job.
Netanyahu probably made a mistake this past spring when he chose to create a grand coalition with the remnants of Kadima rather than going straight to new elections on his own. That alliance didn’t last and he is now locked in a difficult fight with President Obama over Iran that, while not politically fatal, is certainly not to his advantage. But no one currently on the Israeli political scene, like Kadima’s Shaul Mofaz, or those who are currently off it, like Olmert and Tzipi Livni–another failed Kadima leader–have much of a shot to beat him at the next election. While a resurgent Labor is bound to replace Kadima as the main opposition, its head Shelly Yachimovich isn’t seen as someone who’s ready to be prime minister.
Like it or not, American Jewish liberals who loathe Netanyahu are still probably going to be stuck with him as Israel’s leader for the foreseeable future. Though his missteps in recent months show he isn’t bulletproof, potential challengers like Olmert show how puny his opposition has become.
Netanyahu dares to disagree with President Obama. And he dares to speak inconvenient truths about why there is no peace in the middle east. And he is the democratically elected leader of the Jewish state. Any one of those reasons would be more than enough for certain factions in the US to loathe him.
Netanyahu's critics are not likely to be pleased at the most plausible challenger to Netanyahu–Lieberman.
His own cabinet is at odds with him, including Ehud Barak, Deputy Prime Minister Moshe Ya’alon, Minister without portfolio Benny Begin, Intelligence Minister Dan Meridor, and Interior Minister Eli Yishai, who is head of the Shas political party. Let him regain the support of his cabinet before he asks for our support.
Yeah, right. Because the democratically elected head of state of a close ally must be treated like scum if there is any opposition to him in his own government. And because the US has no common interest in what he is advocating. n nAnd what does any of this have to do with whether Olmert is a viable opponent? n nBack to J Street, shill A, for your next list of talking points.
Hilel the opposition that Netanyahu encounters in his security inner cabinet can be explained by a wariness to run a red light that Obama is flashing. If these ministers could be assured of US backing they would be less hesitant. n nIt is a simple matter of equity that those who flash red lights must also subscribe to red lines but then it is really only the bottom line of getting reelected.
amlieu, that's only part of it. Some, like Ehud Barak, are simply shameless opportunists who will say anything for political advantage, much as some people will say anything to defend President Obama or to attack those who dare to disagree with him.
Why should America fight for Israel???If Israel has courage with his phony coward army then go and attack Iran….who is stopping them. These coward Israelis want someone else to fight for them and they just want to eat the fruit without sacrificing any Israeli. They want American soldiers to die for them.
Sure, Perry. Like all the other wars the US has fought at Israel's request, right? And it's not like the US would be threatened at all by a nuclear Iran. Or like the US pressured Israel into waiting until it was too late for Israel to attack effectively, and only the US can do the job. Or like the US has ever pressured Israel into risking the lives of its own citizens — not just soldiers — to advance US interests. n nWho is this "his' and 'him' you keep referring to? If you mean Israel, I think the pronoun (you know what that is, right) that you are looking for is "its" and "it". But who is stopping Israel? Barak Hussein Obama and his enablers like you.
hey kid, Obama is planning to gut the American military and toss out its nuclear stockpile. The last thing in the world you have to worry about is Barry fighting for Israel–he won't use the military if the Chinese and Russians launch an operation to take over Alaska and California.