The last National Journal poll two weeks ago showed Obama leading by seven points, so this dead-heat seems to mark a significant shift:
Obama and Romney each pulled in 47 percent support in the poll among likely voters. It is among the narrowest margins of several presidential surveys published ahead of the debate this week. Other polls have shown the president with a slim lead. In this survey, while the race is tied among likely voters, Obama has a 5-point lead, 49 percent to 44 percent, among registered voters.
The survey was conducted Sept. 27-30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
Romney led in the poll among independents, 49 percent to 41 percent, with both candidates winning more than 90 percent support from their respective parties. The survey had Obama winning 81 percent of the nonwhite vote and Romney carrying 55 percent of white voters.
Is a trend in the works? It may be too early to say, but the WSJ/NBC News poll also shows slightly improved numbers for Romney (he’s down three points, as opposed to five points mid-September), and Gallup has encouraging news for the Romney campaign’s economic message in its latest poll:
Romney also fares better than Obama when Americans are asked to say whether the economy will be better or worse in four years if each is elected. Overall, 50% say the economy will be better if Romney is elected and 35% worse, for a net score of +15. Obama’s net score on the same question is +8, with 48% predicting the economy would be better in four years if he is re-elected and 40% saying it will be worse.
Romney also fares better than Obama when Americans are asked to say whether the economy will be better or worse in four years if each is elected. Overall, 50% say the economy will be better if Romney is elected and 35% worse, for a net score of +15. Obama’s net score on the same question is +8, with 48% predicting the economy would be better in four years if he is re-elected and 40% saying it will be worse.
Despite snap-predictions from so-called expert pundits, this race certainly didn’t end in September. Obama’s post-convention bounce is flattening out, and his alarming response to the terrorist attack in Libya appears to be eroding his lead on foreign policy. The WSJ/NBC News poll shows Obama leading Romney by six points on that issue (46 percent to 40 percent), as opposed to the 15-point advantage he had in July (47 percent to 32 percent).
The partisan breakdown of these "likely voters" was more generous to Obama than in 2008: D-36, R-29, I-30. nD+7? nMeanwhile, back on Earth, where in 2010 election Ds and Rs were tied and all current partisan surveys say Rs have an "enthusiasm gap", ie: more of them will show up to vote, those numbers should be laughed at.
See my point below about the guy on the beach who over-represents really attractive young ladies in his survey sample. n nThe rational presented for this breakdown of "likely voters" is that they are using the 2008 turnout in the absence of all other elections, particularly 2010 but also 2004 and 2000. Remember how the 2008 election was unique – Republicans were truly disgusted with the sex scandals, GWB spending like a drunken sailor, and disillusionment with McCain – and didn't bother to vote. At the same time, this was the first time that a Black man was running for POTUS — the first time that any "non-white" man was, and much as the aging feminists tell me they "want to vote for a woman for President before they die", a lot of folk blindly voted for Obama because of what, not who, he was. It meant, to them, "we have arrived." n nAs I also noted below, Obama only having 81% of the non-white vote is quite significant. I would like to see this broken down more (Oh, Alana…) — and what "non-white" is defined as by them as well. Two points: n nNever forget that older Black women — of Blacks, the demographic most likely to vote — are big time into religion, mostly Baptist and AME, both fairly socially conservative Protestant/Christian faiths. Black ministers are really opposed to abortion, don't much like abortion, and exist in a reality where there are more babies born to single mothers than married couples. There are a lot of young black ministers really vehemently speaking out *against* Obama at this point. n nNever forget that a lot, I believe majority, of Hispanics are of Mexican ancestry. They have relatives in Mexico and have know people who have been murdered in the drug-related bloodbath of the past few years. They are not happy about Fast & Furious — Univision is a business trying to make money by providing what they think their Spanish-speaking audience wants to see — their covering F&F speaks volumes to their perception of their audience — and you don't make too many mistakes about your audience and remain in the competitive business they are in. n nMost Hispanics are Catholic and while they may not go to church all that much, they perceive any attack on the Catholic Church as an institution much like Jews perceive antiSemitism. And the Catholic Church isn't exactly on the best terms with Obama right now, they are openly talking about having to close hospitals and such and while not quite as extreme, this is being perceived amongst Hispanics much the way that the concept of an Iranian nuke is being perceived amongst Jews. n nRemember too that Hispanics and Blacks really don't like each other. n nHence, while a lot of the non-white vote population voted for Obama in 2008 because he was one of them, many now either won't vote or will vote against him because of him as a man and what he stands for.
From your pen to the voting booth.
Yes, this is indeed encouraging. If these polls are picking up a trend, we should begin to see it in state polling.
The interesting thing here is that this is the same poll, and hence any variance (error) will remain consistent because it is the same persons doing it, using the same methods and sampling models. n nIt is like a woman who weighs herself while holding a 50 lb bag of potatoes in her arms each time. (Don't ask why she does this, I am trying to make a point that her weight is always going to be 50 lbs more than it actually is because she is weighing the potatoes too.) n nIf her weight (measured this way) drops from 187 lbs to 180 lbs, the reality is that she has lost 7 lbs regardless of the measuring error — in reality her weight has dropped from 137 lbs to 130 lbs. So too with the polls — I argue they are biased toward Obama for a variety of structural reasons and thus both polls are underestimating Romney so merely being tied shows Romney ahead. n nIt is also interesting that Romney has 19% of the non-white vote, possibly more in that there is the "opportunity cost" of social ostracism for those perceived to be defecting from the racial group. n nThe most important part of any poll — and the hardest to fake – is the "confidence" or "margin of error" which Ms. Goodman cites here, 3.7%. The lower this rate and the longer the poll took to conduct (this one took four days), the more likely it is accurate and (usually) the more fair their methods were.
An example as to what I am saying about "sampling error." n nLet's say that I ask the first ten really cute girls who walk by — I will have massive sampling error in terms of gender (all female) and age (all young). I will have more diversity of opinion should I instead ask 100 or 1000 really cute girls but I sill have the same structural model errors. n nNow lets say I do include some guys in my poll, some senior citizens, but I still make an effort to over-represent cute girls because, well, I'm a guy and really prefer to talk to girls with hot bodies wearing bikinis. This is exactly what the various polls are doing – overrepresenting Democrats instead of cute girls, and doing it because they more want to hear from Democrats than anyone else – and the Democrats more want to talk to them than anyone else. n nHence in all these polls, imagine a guy on a beach who would much rather converse with the "hot babe" in the bikini than the 300 lb guy who thinks wearing a Speedo appropriate. They are all biased towards Obama for a whole bunch of reasons. n nAs an aside, I apologize to the ladies for my analogy but one has to admit that the analogy of the guy on the beach explains variance a whole lot better than anything else, doesn't it?
I don;t know if it explains it, but I would like to hear more about the bikini babes anyways.
I get into enough trouble as it is — I don't need to intentionally need to go into harm's way.
I dont know how much stock you can put in polls. A lots of households are cellphones only. Ladnlines have caller I.D., and many people, me included, dont answer these numbers, especially right before election. So who are they polling? I guess lonely people, people who dont have caller I.D., people who dont know what caller I.D is? nI answered Gallup poll once, it took 15 minutes. So the necxt time they called, I didnt answer, I just didnt have the time.
The decision by the Obama administration to promote the decision to "not pink slip employees in the defense industry" is a violation of the law. The promotion of disobedience is an open encouragement to anarchy. This is a typical weapon from the far left ideology to take over power illegally. nThis is the kind of President this country needs.