The situation in Afghanistan is quickly deteriorating, as President Obama has confirmed that U.S. troops will depart “on schedule.” The loss of the Afghan war dates back to December 1, 2009 when President Obama announced a timeline for withdrawal. Telegraphing to enemies how long they must last before you throw in the towel is never wise. The logic that planting firm deadlines would force Afghan President Hamid Karzai and his cronies to take responsibility for the war shows the arrogance of Obama’s Afghanistan team. After all, Afghanistan is not a petulant child, and there are other players in the sandbox beyond the United States and Afghanistan. Afghans are survivors, and all Obama accomplished was convincing them that it was time to pivot away from NATO and into the welcoming hands of Pakistan, Iran, or the Taliban.
Obama should have known better. Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak made a similar mistake when he announced ahead of time, for purely political reasons, a withdrawal date to end Israel’s presence in southern Lebanon. Rather than end Hezbollah’s pretext for war, he simply enabled the terrorist group to expand its claims into the Shebaa Farms/Har Dov, if not the Galilee. What Barak saw as an honorable end to a war turned into a “Mission Accomplished” moment that empowered Hezbollah and led directly to renewed military conflict there just six years later.
The same pattern also applies to Vietnam. The North Vietnamese were close to throwing in the towel when the Nixon administration did it first, announcing the American path to withdrawal. With the slow-motion collapse of Marxism, it’s easy to shrug one’s shoulders today, but the fall of South Vietnam was, for millions, a human tragedy.
Those arguing that the trajectory in Afghanistan is positive are not seeing the forest through the trees. The problem has never been American forces, however, but rather an insurmountable obstacle needlessly created by navel-gazing politicians. The Afghanistan mission is essential, and the United States will pay the price for Afghanistan’s reversion to civil war, if not Taliban control. Terrorists love a vacuum, and that is what President Obama promised them. If there is any silver-lining to the Afghan fiasco, however, it should be to put to rest the notion once and for all that political timelines and battlefield metrics are interchangeable.
Sept 11,2014, after America pulls out, Afghanistan will fall, the Taliban won.
The author leaves unmentioned two salient and telling points: not one Israeli political party or figure is calling for Israel to resume occupying stewardship of one square inch of Lebanon. Disasters may have occurred afterwards but the solid Israeli consensus is that occupying Lebanon, even in a territorial buffer was bad policy. There is no base of support for ousting the Hezbollah base from Southern Lebanon now as an alternative to a conventional war of mass destruction, should that be necessary, later. Meanwhile, as the world and time turn, America has good relations with Vietnam. n nA good argument can be made that the time required to set up a stable, non-Taliban, non-imploding Afghanistan survivable without collapse into eighth century warlordism after American departure is indefinite. America is not prepared to stay there one, two, three, many more years to avoid the chaos that follows our departure. n nAmerica cannot position its soldiers throughout the multiple criss-crossing rims of Islamist anarchy currently breeding anomic violence within their populations angry, frustrated, theological besotted young males. Another solution, perhaps small embedded special ops-intelligence units, perhaps massive showpiece retaliation following acts against American sovereignty could be considered. n nBut the whole bureaucratic counter-terrorist machinery of village renewal, central government institution building, national police training, American-indigenous military partnership is a long long pull for an Army of volunteers to commit to year after year after decade.
It is always difficult for a democracy to maintain a presence far away from home when the country concerned is not vital to its security. That was the case in Vietnam and is the case today with Afghanistan. People were sick of Vietnam then just as they are sick of Afghanistan today. This is a major constrain on US power. It's easy enough to exert power from the deck of an aircraft carrier but very hard from a ground war situation in which there are significant casualties. Voters want out of the situation on any terms possible and if getting out leaves a disaster behind too bad.