A friend who works as a very very high-level consultant writes:
One of the things my shop does is create forecasting models for clients—major firms like [BIG RETAILER] and [BIG FOOD PRODUCER]—you know, people who have to lay out big money on big decisions. We are a consumer of the data produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in the sense that we use it as raw material in models. For example, we use periodic U-1, U-2, etc as predictors of forward sales.
Now imagine me, telling [BIG RETAILER] to load up several millions in extra inventory in anticipation of a sales spike in three weeks because BLS says 873,000 people got jobs last month. They would laugh me out of the room before canceling our contract.
If you think there was skepticism about these numbers in the press, you should’ve heard it at my office this morning. We are treating September numbers as an aberration, as, I am sure, is anyone who has to make an actual decision off them.
If the people who have to predict what consumer spending patterns will be like this month don’t believe the numbers, with tens of millions of dollars in sales on the line, why should the rest of us?
" because BLS says 873,000 people got jobs last month" n nI'm confused, the reports i read said "total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 114,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today"
James Pethokoukis got it right: n nLook at it this way: Back in June 1983, the economy added about 900,000 jobs. During the second quarter of 1983, the economy grew at an astronomical 9.3% annual rate. The supply-side Reagan Boom was in full swing. n nRight now, in the third quarter of 2012, economists think the economy is growing at an an anemic 1.5% or so. So the economy was growing six times as fast in 1983 when it was adding that many jobs. Hmmmm …
The economy did not add about 900,000 jobs in June of 1983. The one month net change in the private market for June of 1983 was +363,000. In August of 1983, the net change in jobs was -313,000. By your reasoning, the second quarter GDP in 1983 was a farce, a cooked number. Hmmmmmm…
You've got to laugh. If these numbers had shown a RISE in unemployment, they'd be treated like stone tablets from God himself.
Trend line: July +181,000; Aug +142,000; Sept +114,000. This fabulous trend is going the wrong way – especially heading into Christmas Season. n nThis is sorta like Obama going out there now trying to embarrass MIT for NOT thinking BIG BIRD – whose personal wealth far outstrips Mitt Romney, and even Obama's own personal FUTURE earnings potential – needs TAX SUBSIDIES from people LIKE ME! nAnd thinking himself WITTY for doing it. n nThat STUPID LOOK on his face these days must be the glimmering idea that this stuff isn't coming out of his mouth sounding as brilliant as it sounded in the war room!
Where is this 873,000 number come from? Am I missing something?