A week is a lifetime in politics. Just seven days ago, even some Republicans were writing off Mitt Romney’s chances of being elected president. But as the latest polls taken since his victory in Wednesday’s debate show, the race is up for grabs again. Even more significant, the altered political environment that stems from the puncturing of the Obama balloon of inevitability may be having some effect on other races as well.
The first polls after the debate showed a dramatic movement toward Romney in swing states. The national tracking polls also showed either a reduced margin for Obama, as in the case of Gallup, or an Obama lead being turned into one for Romney, as Rasmussen reported. But the key swing state of Ohio showed not only movement in the top ballot race but in the one below it. Rasmussen’s latest survey of the Ohio Senate race between incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown and Republican Josh Mandel indicates that this crucial battle has changed from one in which Brown had a strong lead into a flat-footed tie. That not only alters the odds about that seat, but with Ohio moving from leans-Democratic to tossup on the national Senate map, it means control of the upper house may once again be back in play this year. While the youthful Mandel has been running a surprisingly strong underdog effort, it can only be supposed that a surge for him is not unconnected to the boost Romney got in Ohio in the days after the debate.
It’s possible Romney’s post-debate bounce may not last. Liberal efforts to spin the contradictory results of Friday’s federal jobs report may spin the needle back in the president’s direction in the next few days. But it is also possible that all the debate has done is correct the post-convention Obama surge that turned what had been a tight race all year into one in which he had a small edge.
Romney’s September swoon hadn’t just hurt him but also lowered the chances of the Republicans taking back the Senate this fall, as many had assumed they would earlier in the year. The problem wasn’t just Missouri, where Todd Akin’s idiotic comments about pregnancy and rape turned a sure GOP victory into a likely loss to Claire McCaskill. In the past few weeks, some races that had been thought to be easy GOP victories, like the ones in Indiana, Arizona, Montana and North Dakota, became toss-ups. Scott Brown also lost ground to liberal icon Elizabeth Warren.
But the past few days have shown that just as Romney has gotten himself back in the game, he may be helping Senate candidates too. While Democrats will scream that Rasmussen is a Republican outlier, if Mandel is tied with Brown now that has to be seen as an indication that Republicans are on the upswing in Ohio. While Brown, like Obama, must still be considered the favorite, the idea that Ohio has drifted from a toss-up to a Democratic leaner must now be thrown out. With Democratic seats like the one in Connecticut and Ohio now looking better for the GOP, Romney can now look forward to a stretch run in which he not only has given himself a chance to win, but also allowed his party to dream of a sweep of both houses of Congress as well as the White House.
Neither Obama nor Romney have coattails, but I'll be watching the Scott Brown v Warren yard sign wars. Good thing Scott stopped those attack ads about ancestry and is now attacking on Warren's legal clients. Scott was doing better when his ads were all Mass Dems endorsing Scott Brown. nMaybe the truth of the debate is that Romney finally had some caffeine, and Obama needs a pack of Camel cigarettes?
"Maybe the truth of the debate is that Romney finally had some caffeine, and Obama needs a pack of Camel cigarettes? " n nI'm thinking Obama should have an extended reunion with the Choom Gang before the next debate!
Commentary seems to be breeding a lot of the Eyores that we see at many conservative outlets. I didn't think mitt was out of it at all. When most polls assume a +6 or more Dem advantage, obviously things will look good for Obama. Dems will be lucky to be more than +3 in november, which totally changes things.
I hope this is correct. nAnyway, am I the only one who thinks that an Obama second term could be consumed by all of the scandals the press has kept under wrap for four years? I just saw that the Washington Examiner reported on Thursday that a national magazine may be coming out with a story tomorrow regarding the Obama campaign's questionable fund-raising. I hope so, but it is just one of many things that need to be out there. n
Who cares Mike? The scandal will be ignored by the MSM , ignored by Congress and ignored by the American public. The GOP simply lacks the cojones and media savvy to pursue Obama over what has been an astounding array of corruption and illegality.
I see, Mr. Tobin. You don't want to get optimistic about the election. Cautious. That's fine. But I think we are seeing the makings of a rout by Romney. Look at the early voting going on in Ohio and the GOP is way ahead in terms of ballot requests. Virtually every county in Ohio has seen a dramatic turnaround in GOP ballot requests compared to 2008. Democrats aren't motivated to vote for Obama like they were in 2008 and neither are independents. the GOP, otoh, seem to be plenty motivated and requesting ballots in record numbers. Same thing in NC. An electoral storm is brewing but none of the pollsters can see it or measure it because their methods are simply outdated. I mean, 9% response rate?
I agree that the potential for a rout exists. I still question the conventional wisdom that this race will be close, because that CW is based upon the polls you criticize. nAs for your response to my post above – I know. But don't you think that at some point the whole facade HAS to come down? I keep hoping that the next scandalous revelation will be the proverbial straw. And four weeks out from an election increases the likelihood, I think, of that happening, especially when Obama is reeling from his own incompetence.
I think you are seeing movement in the polls and are attributing it to the wrong source. You naturally put the credit on Romney for moving the needle. The polls are skewed. They are oversampling Dems by a wide margin. Here's the problem. If the Media goes down to the wire showing Dewey beating Truman, then Romney slaughters Obama, the Media takes yet one more hit to their credibility. Between now and the election the Media Industrial Complex has to quietly realign their polls with something that approximates reality. That means that Romney is "surging" in the polls. He's doing nothing of the sort. Romney is way ahead among actual voters, but the polls are skewed to keep it interesting.
Naturally the first question is "Why would the media do this?" The first and most obvious answer is also the wrong answer. The Media isn't doing this to help Obama. The Media's first loyalty is to itself. The Media fancies itself serious journalists, when in reality they are just clowns who dance to get attention. They play Celebutard videos and stories about local dog shelters because that gets viewers. It hurts their feelings that they have to pander to "idiot Americans" to get viewers. Every 4 years, they get to strap on the SERIOUS JOURNALIST(tm) hats and cover the election. They get to pretend that what they are doing is somehow more serious and worthy of respect than the guy standing on the street corner juggling chainsaws for donations.
What happens when they find out that the election is lost and there's no hope for The One? They are faced with the fact that for another 4 years they can't play serious journalists. They have to go back to organ grinding. n nRather than face that, the Media has just decided to pretend that there is a race to be covered. They pretend that Obama has a chance. They skew the polls to make it look like Obama isn't getting drubbed. Then you and I will show up and watch their idiot faces as they opine seriously on the fate of the nation.
The problem that this creates is that if they don't spend the last couple of weeks reporting Romney "surging in the polls" then they look like absolute idiots when the results come out. The Senate is in play because it was always in play. The skewed polls are making easy wins look like competitive races. n nMy prediction is Romney by a wide Electoral College margin and the Senate flips. Due to Gerrymandering, the House will become even more Republican. Then the Media will spend until the inauguration opining seriously about Romney's "Surge" and his "Coattails" pulling the Senate into the Republican's hands. It's all horse manure, but if you were a serious minded journalist, wouldn't you lie to yourself and others rather than go back to reporting the latest antics of coked up Hollywood Celebutramps?
Bigger Greek columns – that's what the Obama campaign needs. n nI'm kind of torn as to what the better metaphor for Obama is – a Styrofoam Greek column or a Styrofoam statue of Ozymandias.
I view the prospect of having a single party in charge of everything with a little trepidation. This country needs a government with checks, balances, and a loyal opposition to keep it in line. But at least, with the advent of the Tea Party, I don't think the Republicans will make as holy a mess as the Dems have done over the last few years.
Apropos nothing on this post, I am reading a book called Reelecting Lincoln. I ran across something mildly depressing, which helps explain why a buffoon like Obama even has a prayer this year. The august August Belmont supported James Buchanan for the Democratic nomination in 1852. When Buchanan's bid failed Belmont enthusiastically supported Franklin Pierce. In 1861, after Douglas died, Belmont became the head of the Democratic Party, as its national chairman – a position he'd held prior to Douglas's death. nSo here is an obviously intelligent man supporting arguably the two worst presidents in US history, He watches them drag the nation toward disunion, watches Douglas and Pierce force through the Kansas-Nebraska Act, watches Buchanan do nothing about secession, watches as the horrific Dred Scott decision increases sectionalism – and then supports McClellan in 1864. In fact, he was one of the people instrumental in McClellan's nomination. nIf a guy like August Belmont could embrace so much failure, no wonder Obama keeps polling well north of 45%. Support the two worst presidents and campaign against the best – quite a legacy.
Mr Tobin repeats the DC-beltway opinion that Romney had already lost and that Indiana, Montana, and North Dakota were going Democrat. MAN! that just shows how disconnected DC-insiders are from reality. The debate performance helped the scales fall from some pundits' eyes, but the essential trend is that Republican wins in those states (at least!) and Romney's win were as likely last week as this week.
the Senate was always going to be close, and it still will. this is why it is even more important for Romney to win, so that Repubs can hold the 50-50. Most important close races are Virginia, Connecticut, Montana, and Florida. If Repubs can take 3 of these we are OK, if we take 2 we better hold Nevada and Massachusetts and Arizona. the one I would like to win above all is Ohio, but regardless of the polls I think it is not a high probability.