Among the chatter heading into tomorrow night’s vice presidential debate between Paul Ryan and current Vice President Joe Biden, it’s easy to pick up on the confidence conservatives have in Ryan and their dismissive attitude toward Biden. Both of those are well founded, since Ryan is a solid debater and in strong command of the facts, while Biden is … Biden. Furthermore, they seem to be making a kind of Talmudic a fortiori argument about the general momentum of the campaigns: if Mitt Romney could so thoroughly defeat Barack Obama, kal v’chomer Paul Ryan could dismantle Joe Biden.
But there are three things conservatives should keep in mind. First, at the Democratic National Convention, Biden was better than Obama was—and it wasn’t even close. Biden had the energy and the populist appeal—two staples of his political persona—while Obama was saddled with presidential exhaustion and a marked lack of ideas or inspirational rhetoric. Biden is the one candidate among the four who is capable of projecting warmth on command. If the Joe Biden from the DNC shows up tomorrow night, Ryan will have his work cut out for him.
Second, the lead-up to the first presidential debate was filled with reminders of the memorable moments of debates past. What did they generally have in common? They often had nothing to do with the substance of the arguments, but rather with nonverbal cues. Al Gore’s sigh; George H.W. Bush looking at his watch; George W. Bush’s brilliant but almost imperceptible nod at Gore when Gore tried to crowd him. And even when the moments were about the words spoken, what were they? “You’re no Jack Kennedy”; “I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth and inexperience”; and so on.
This is not to discount completely the role of substance. In fact, the first Romney-Obama debate was widely viewed as being more substantive than many previous debates, low on zingers and high on numbers, and this perception contributed to Romney’s margin of victory. Ryan will most certainly have substance on his side, and it will be of service. But the fact that one statement, let alone an audible exhalation, can rule the memory of these debates should be a warning to Ryan that debate performances are performances, sometimes above all else.
Third, Ryan may be taken aback by the extent to which Biden will invent alternate history and present it as fact. In 2008, Biden did exactly that, at one point offering a response on Lebanon that was quite possibly the most ridiculous statement ever made at a vice presidential debate. (If you need your memory jogged about it, please re-read Michael Totten’s post about it on this site.)
Biden gets a free pass—that’s the rule. In 2008, neither the moderator nor Sarah Palin called Biden on his repeated factually challenged ramblings. If Biden is not forced to work within observable reality, the debate will be conducted on his terms. Biden has been wrong on pretty much every major foreign-policy question in his time in the Senate, but foreign policy is not Ryan’s bread and butter. Will he be prepared enough to correct the record each time Biden wanders off?
On paper, the smart money would always be on a candidate like Ryan against someone like Biden. But the superior candidates have lost countless such debates over the years, for a variety of reasons. And overconfidence is often at the top of that list.
Seth, agreed. Nothing could hurt Ryan more than to attack too harshly, get into the deep deep weeds on numbers – which he'll be able to recall on command – or treat Biden like a doddering old fool (no jokes needed here). Youth disrespecting an "elder statesman" who's been around since dirt won't wear well. My gut tells me, though, Ryan is mature enough, smart enough, and just plain wise enough to avoid many if not most of the potential traps. Lets hope so.
Seth, after the giddiness of the post debate, it's so good to read someone expressing caution about something in this race. Your Judaic erudition shows with the Talmudic reference. Since my religious training and knowledge are much less scholarly, indeed more of the Eastern European shtetle variety, let me offer this: Ryan should do well, SHA, SHA, PEU, POO, KINE-AHORA.
Since Ryan and Biden will be seated at a table, I almost wish they bring a keg of Guinness to drink.. nToo bad Ryan may have to defend Romney's [Bush43 2.0] foreign policy speech if Raddatz has her way. nI was hoping for a real Irish "gift of the gab" slugfest, which, in Ireland, would include that keg of Guinness
n nEveryone online is so tense this week. Maybe all the pundits should go on vacation for the rest of October.
I love your wish to see a good Irish-gab fest. Knowing that they are at a table, I feel a bit more at ease that Ryan, if standing, won't look like a "little boy." Never mind the pundits, I could use a vacation. As I have mentioned on several posts, I have had a great deal of political experience and personal involvement in campaigns, but I wasn't even close to being this nervous. Do you think this election means something?
about the tension. I completely stopped watching/reading any news after Jan 10 (the omen was seeing a fox brazenly crunch a squirrel to death after the fox knew I was watching, and that was the best part of the day).r nGradually re-entered maybe Labor Day.r nBut, the way every iota of polling and every word out of two mouths is obsessed over since the debate, makes me wonder when PETA will protest a cult in New Jersey that sacrifices chickens to read the Daily Entrail Forecast.r nr nHalf of America is split between the bases who truly believe 2012 does mean the direction of America.r nr nThe other half is also paying attention, but just want jobs, be able to sell your house the way it was in 1991, and balance all the budgets. r nr nI am in the Clint Eastwood bloc, and kind of annoyed that the next Romney v Obama debate will defer a new episode of NCIS to Oct 23.
I can't hate on Joe. Sure, he's happy to be an attack dog mouthing whatever sanctimonious bs is handed to him. But at a certain level of his personality he doesn't give a flying eff for the ersatz sanctimony of the political game he's playing, God love him.
I'm not so sure that Biden's doing well tomorrow night actually IS a good thing for his running mate. The viewer likely will have seen Obama last week and knows very well that it will not be Jokin' Joe Biden running things the next four years; neither was it Biden setting the policy agenda the last four.
nor Bill Clinton…
How I recall the Palin-Biden debate was that Palin won by being better able to have memorized and recite the party answers (my overall impression of the debates in 2008 was that every candidate [Obama, McCain, Palin, Biden] basically ignored the exact questions asked and recited the campaign's line on the subject of the question). Biden can be a great story teller and connect, but memorizing and reciting it back have never been strengths. I have no clue what Biden's or Ryan's strategy will be (and Biden may intentionally avoid trying to match Ryan on facts, due to Ryan's reputation) — but I don't see Biden scoring a decisive win unless he manages to goad Ryan into some uncharacteristic explosion or gets Ryan to patronize him … and Ryan was effective disagreeing with Obama because he took Obama seriously and tried to seriously convey his disagreement (meaning I expect he'll treat Biden respectfully and seriously).
Biden is one of the best liars in the business. He will introduce people to a complete alternate reality, and make it sound convincing. But nobody will care in the end.
Is it just a coincidence that when I followed the link to look up kal v'chomer the names of the fellows in the example given were Arnold and…..Barack?
It seems to me that within the next week the Republicans have the chance to put this away. If Ryan performs well and Romney looks as good next week as he did last week, and if the Libya news keeps coming while little ducks keep pecking at Obama's bleeding heels (fundraising scandals, voter fraud scandals), it could be over soon. nBut I am not getting cocky.
All Biden has is "energy". You must also remember, that Obama will be compared to Biden as well; so Biden may overshadow Obama's second debate, within the media non-sense echo chamber. Ryan can handle himself in all situations. n nMost people will be watching only for a Biden oopsie.
I will tell you where I thought Obama’s poor debate performance went from bad to worse, when he turned and looked directly into the camera. It was as if he thought he had some magical powers of persuasion and was trying to hypnotize the audience, but he came off like a snake oil charlatan. His constituency who I’m sure were wise enough to see they had been fooled by this phoney baloney hack could reconsider their support in favor of their pocketbooks. Obama could lose a portion of his own base, who may just vote for Green or Roseanne. I thought, who is he talking to, certainly not I. Significantly, Obama’s body language made me thing he privately believes Romney is the better candidate and secretly wishes to be through with the job. He was devoid of any real ideas, empty zero. When Romney neatly and concisely summarized his plan, I got the impression Obama wanted to say, “good ideas, why did’nt we think of them…”
Seemed clear that Team Romney did a superb job of preparation for his debate last week with “The Faith Healer”. I would expect Paul Ryan to be prepared just as well for his debate with The Gaffe King.
You can expect Biden to support Obama’s contention that he , Obama is the best friend Israel ever had. That will be an opportunity for Ryan to cut Biden down for the trouble he, Biden has caused Israel these last four years.
I have already called the election for Romney/Ryan.
Just as I knew Netanyahu would prevail over Livni.
It is just as obvious.
The simply truth is "Slow Joe" has been around DC since the dark ages and has survived a great many debates to stay there. He may not be the brightest bulb in the box but, with the assistance of a known liberal (Obamabot) moderator he will do well. n nMr. Ryan is smart and articulate but I am sure you will see that will be turned against him by the moderator. n nThe DNC and the Obama campaign cannot afford to have another clown show like the Obama debate so they will be appling all the preasure on the moderator (as if it was needed) and the propaganda media will provide an overwelming cover and distraction campaign to hide any of the standard Biden gaffes and support the media hero "Zero".
The Biden speech at the Democratic convention I watched three weeks ago was boring and 20 minutes too long. All he did was praise Obama and it just sounded hollow and uninspired. Maybe I'm not perceptive enough, or patient enough, to detect Joe Biden's brilliance. n nRyan has a lot of energy and ideas; Biden is a political hack–perhaps a nice guy to sit down at a bar with a beer or two, but definitely not in Ryan's intellectual league. n nIt should be interesting to see what dirty tricks Biden has up his sleeve to distract from his boss's horrible first term record, and whether Ryan has the smarts to cleverly parry those distractions and keep the audience focused on Obama's failings and Romney's proposed reforms.