Protests in Iran over the fall of its currency, which lost about a third of its value, might suggest that there is still time for sanctions to work. And indeed there is a strong case to be made for legislation such as that introduced by Sen. Mark Kirk, which would further tighten sanctions on Iranian banks. But then comes this report from the Institute for Science and International Security, which suggests Tehran could have enough weapons-grade uranium to make a nuclear device in just two to four months–although it would take longer to weaponize that uranium.
Assuming that timeline is accurate (and of course no outsider knows the true state of the Iranian program), it suggests that the next president will have a momentous decision to make in the first months of his term of office. Deciding to do nothing–to let sanctions work and hope for the best–would be the easiest path, but it risks either letting Iran go nuclear or forcing Israel to launch air strikes of its own. The former option would be a catastrophe. The latter option would be better, but runs the risk of a dangerous Iranian reaction in return for less-than-lethal damage to their nuclear facilities. Either way, the game of “kick the can down the road”–which has been played by both the Bush and Obama administrations–is going to come to an end and the next commander-in-chief is going to face an agonizing choice about how far we are willing to go to stop Iran.
As for "kicking the can down the road", don't let us forget Carter and , oh yes, the 'great' Reagan, both of whom allowed the maniacs in Iran to go on after they attacked our Embassy in Teheran and taken it's staff hostage in what was most clearly an act of war. With leadership such as that, followed by more with daddy Bush, Clinton, and then sonny Bush, what can we expect of the present sad bunch. Absolutely nothing from Obama. Let us pray that Romney is at least awake.
Very good. But I cannot, and do not, trust anything Gates says or has said. I believe he has an agenda or is just plain incompetent. Aside from that, this comment is superb.
Vandag you are replying to a post which has been inexplicably removed. This is what it said:
Read this blog: http://lewis.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/5699/how…
Most of the people commenting there are genuine nuclear proliferation experts. Their gravamen is, that Iran is effectively already a nuclear state. It has enough fissionable material, in which 90% of the work towards weapon grade fuel is complete, for several bombs. They want enough for a substantial arsenal before they reveal their hand and the longer they hold back the more of this almost ready HEU becomes available for their breakout. Breakout will mean gabbing that stock currently under IAEA observation, and running it for another three weeks through a final centrifuge cascade at Fordow, Natanz or perhaps an as yet undiscovered site. (There are thousands of Iranian centrifuges whose existence is known, because Iran’s capacity to build centrifuges is known, but their location remains unknown.) Then the mullahs will have the weapon grade U-235 to be inserted into the pits of ready bomb cores.
About those bomb cores.
The Iranians have a test chamber at their Parchin facility (which they have been cleaning up in anticipation of IAEA inspection) where they have experimented with the so called R265 weapon design. It is believed to be small enough and light enough not only for an air dropped bomb, but to fit inside the cones of existing Iranian missiles.
Decision time is approaching, if it has not already passed. A week ago, former Secretary of Defense Gates, speaking in Norfolk Virginia said, “Neither the United States nor Israel is capable of wiping out Iran’s nuclear capability…” And this fellow knows something about both our 30,000 pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator and the mountain under which the Iranians have buried their key facilities.
The game may well be up. The administration is unlikely to start bombing if it can’t even commit itself to full economic sanctions. The mullahs are unlikely to buckle even if we stopped pulling our punch on economic sanctions. And the Israelis only have around 40 F-15 with the range and strength to carry the 5,000-pound GBU-28 bunker busters we sold them in 2009. Those can penetrate 30 meters of earth and 6 meters of hardened concrete; but even if they have been improved, those still won’t manage to reach deep into a mountain.
It comes down to this, if living with an Iranian bomb really and truly is unthinkable, then Israel will have to attack with her deep penetration bombs and deepen those craters with tactical nukes on Jericho 2 ballistic missiles. Give half a days warning to Iranian personnel to clear out. and the casualties, Iranian and Israeli, will be far fewer than from a conventional attack.
In for a penny in for a pound. The repercussions, diplomatic and economic, and terror attacks, won’t be worse than following a conventional strike. At least the job will get done and Never Again will have meaning