Mitt Romney’s 7-point lead in the TBT/Herald/Mason-Dixon poll is the latest sign of a Florida surge:
The survey conducted this week found 51 percent of likely Florida voters supporting Romney, 44 percent backing Obama and 4 percent undecided. That’s a major shift from a month ago when the same poll showed Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent — and a direct result of what Obama himself called a “bad night” at the first debate.
The debate prompted 5 percent of previously undecided voters and 2 percent of Obama backers to move to Romney. Another 2 percent of Obama supporters said they are now undecided because of the debate.
Any poll that shows a shift as significant as this one should be taken with caution. But there are other indications that there’s strong momentum behind Romney in Florida, including today’s Rasmussen (which shows Romney +4) and ARG (which shows Romney +3). There’s also the assessment of the Suffolk University pollsters, who pulled out of Florida, Virginia and North Carolina this week after saying Romney has already definitively locked up these states.
According to the TBT/Herald/Mason-Dixon poll, Obama is in serious trouble with Hispanic voters in the state:
Especially ominous were the numbers for Hispanic voters, a demographic where the Obama campaign is banking on an advantage of at least 15 percentage points. The poll showed 44 percent of likely Hispanic voters favoring Obama and 46 for Romney, though the margin of error is higher with that smaller group of voters. …
The bottom line? Obama appears to be in serious trouble in America’s biggest battleground state. He has two debates and 25 days to turn it around, but the poll points to a race that had been close and stable for months shifting significantly toward the Republican nominee.
Making up 17-points with Hispanic voters seems close to impossible at this point. Obama can cite an executive order on immigration every day between now and the election, but if the TBT/Herald/Mason-Dixon numbers are correct, he still won’t be anywhere near where he needs to be.
These numbers are also devastating for Obama:
• Who do you trust more to improve the economy? Romney 50 percent, Obama 44 percent.
• Who do you trust more on foreign policy? Romney 49 percent, Obama 46 percent.
• Who do you trust more to look out for the middle class? Romney 50 percent, Obama 47 percent.
• Who do you consider more trustworthy to lead the nation? Romney 51 percent, Obama 46 percent.
• Whose plans are more likely to do more long-term harm to Medicare? Obama 54 percent, Romney 40 percent.
All that foreign policy cheerleading at the Democratic National Convention? It came to nothing. Romney has taken the lead on foreign policy, a subject the Obama campaign thought they had a comfortable advantage on. Romney’s lead on economic issues was predictable, but now he’s overtaken Obama on “looking out for the middle class” — the “empathy” question that Obama typically rules. The biggest surprise at all may be on Medicare. Likely voters say Obama’s plans are far more likely to harm Medicare in the long-term, which suggests the Obama campaign’s Mediscaring has been a complete bust.
We’ll have to see whether other polls back this up in the next few days. But this is disastrous for the Obama campaign.
Wow. n nIt will be interesting to see which way Obama comes out at the next debate. n nNo matter which direction he decides to go in, he will likely over-act out of the underlying desperation. n nThere will still be a a thrilling contest/challenge for Obama after Romney wins, however. n nHe can duke it out with Carter for the title of 'Worst Ex-President'.
Try G W Bush. Obama has a way to go before he can start to do the damage that Dubya inflicted upon us.
Obama lied, people died, Big Bird is Alive
It's no contest. Jimmy is breathing a sigh of relief, secure in the knowledge that he will no longer be remembered as the worst President in our history. nOf course, Carter didn't hate America.
Wow, you have a really short memory. Three years and 10 months short.
That's OK. Tail Gunner Joe will go down to Florida and personally get in the face of wavering voters.
He's going to stand at the entrance to polling areas in heavily conservative districts and scare everyone with his Chuckie laugh…
GW Bush and Richard Nixon both left office with approval numbers far below Jimmy Carter. Bush 43
So, what you are saying is; "Obama is bad as well, but I dont care how bad he is, I am voting for that Muslim again" n nStop nagging about the GOP, you are just like them with your blind party loyalty
Yeah, Obama needs four more years to finish running the country the rest of the way into the ground.
And both got reelected to second terms, whereas Jimmy left after one term (with his tail between his legs, I might add)
And Harry Truman was well below Nixon (a special case) and Carter when he left. The true test is that of time. I didn't like either Truman or Nixon, but Truman is looked upon generally favorably now, and Nixon has also grown in stature. GW Bush and Jimmy Carter might be rehabilitated at some point. n nObama is a different from all those men. A dedicated social engineer bent on giving away the store will always attract substantial followers. Whatever the numbers at the moment, I think there's a good chance that the history books will eventually cite the term of "44. Barack Hussein Obama (2009-2013)" as practically a complete failure.
All Romney has to say in the next debate is this: n n Obama took office two years AFTER Democrats took control of both Houses of Congress on Jan. 3, 2007. The financial meltdown happened in Sept. 2008 in the Housing and Banking sectors of the economy which barney Frank and Chris Dodd chaired from Jan. 3 2007. Prior to 2007 Bush and Republicans went before congress 17 times to try to rein in Fannie/Freddie. Blocked each time. Barney Frank called GOP concerns "Chicken Little". n n“I think that the responsibility that the Democrats had may rest more nin resisting any efforts by Republicans in the Congress, or by me when I nwas President, to put some standards and tighten up a little on Fannie nMae and Freddie Mac.” – Former President Bill Clinton (D-AR), September n25, 2008 n nIf you are re elected who will you try to blame for the mess you inherited from yourself?
EXCELLENT points Marion! Keep posting!
Biden already blamed Ryan for the attack in Benghazi. He blamed Romney for votes of Congress during the Bush Administration too (in the same part where he said he didn't vote for the Iraq and Afghanistan wars).
Romney who is advocating large-scale tax reform must really point out that in no way were the Bush tax cuts responsible for what the country went through in 2008. He has until now been to content to use the weak line that Obama has inherited a bad situation, and made it worse; Romney has let Obama with impunity pin blame for our economic troubles on Bush and, by extension, all Republicans by not countering that the crises of 2008 had very little to do with our tax policy. n nOn a note that is much the same, he should fully defend the Bush tax cuts, and how they eliminated payments made by swaths of the middle class, which of course Obama acknowledges in passing by saying these portions of the cuts he'll preserve.
people are starting to listen to their physicians who are telling them what a disaster Obamacare is, and will be. No amount of advertising is going to be able to counter this
That's because doctors make money by overcharging for services and visits, and make more money by prescribing different tests and check-ups even if they aren't necessary. Obamacare and Obama's reform of Medicare makes it harder for them to do that kind of shit, so yeah doctors and hospitals are going to have to stop overcharging, stop prescribing unneeded services, and will reap less profit because of it. Does that mean we should leave the flawed system in place so the doctors can continue to benefit from it? No, not at all.
People are seeing it for themselves. Forced generics in Medicare/Medicaid and flex accounts cut in half. Mandated end of life counseling for well controlled chronic conditions if you're over 60. That's just the start of Obamacare.
HA! my chiropractor is going to accept cash payment only when Obamacare kicks in. I have a feeling he is not going to be the only one.
Why should Hispanics vote for Obama. He said he'd deal with immigration and he didn't. Romney will deal with immigration.
How anyone supports him is just baffling. Even if Romney wins, it still doesn't change the fac that there are loads of ignorant people in this country who think or thought Obama was a swell guy. I don't know what scares me more, Obama being in the WH or all the stupid people that put him there
AND all the people who thought Joe Biden did a swell job last nite. my college-age daughter and I watched it together and we both thought he was completely off his meds.
I agree this man is a creten. But things seem to be looking up. Barry you need to be retired FAST!!
I have to take exception to this: How can anybody in their right mind support the same stupid idiots who got us in this mess because of their greed and thirst for war which led us to the path of financial ruin. I would vote for the devil himself before I would vote for a Republican and I mean any GOP nominee. I think you people have been terrible for this country! I do not agree with anything that comes out of their mouth. And I like seeing you dimwits all fired up about polls that only a week ago you said was rigged because they all showed Mittens behind. Now with 2 debates still to come, you will like the election to end today but that is not how it works. I will bet any of you dimwits that come Nov. 7, the GOP will lose! (I think Ohio is already gone blue). I am going to write to a few of you dimwits the day after the election to see how you are going to take America electing Obama and Biden to another 4 year term. And my last point, I feel worried about the American electorate as a whole too because for the life of me, I cannot understand how anyone (unless you have millions) in their right mind would support these REPUGs! I absolutely detest them! But at least when Nov. 7 rolls around, I will not have to hear Mitt Romney's name and you neocons can be mad for 4 more years….Talk to you again Nov 7…….(God willing)
I watched the VP debate, but, it was at a public place, and there was too much noise and distractions….so, I watched it carefully, on Utube this morning. n nHere is my impression: n nThe bits and pieces I saw last night, I seemed to get the impression that Biden was dominating the talking….I did notice the incongruent smiling….and knew that he was staging something. nThis morning, when I was able to watch and listen to the whole debate undistracted, it was pretty clear that Ryan was the guy with the substance, and Biden was the guy with the bluster. n nThere were many subjects touched on, of course, so, too much to comment on. But, the gist of it all, across all the issues raised was this, as I saw it: n nRyan: When allowed to speak without interruption, was sharp, focused, with fluid, common sense observations and arguments rolling of his tongue. Ryan comes off as very smart, very competent, and in charge of the facts and brimming with new ideas to solve the obvious problems which everyone knows are fact. In the case of social programs, for instance: That medicare and social security are going to go broke without meaningful reforms. n nBiden: Pandering, general statements throughout the evening. On the same issue of social programs, he says “Their ideas are old, their ideas are bad, and they eliminate the guarantee of medicare.” …… “Trust me”, Biden says. n nBiden is all over the place with various dismissive snippets, with numerous vague, fear raising claims aimed at the elderly and the middle class. Much of his words and phrases seem over the top, unwarranted. n nBiden is constantly interrupting, trying to step on and break up Ryan’s fluid speaking. The theme of Biden is always, (I paraphrase) “My friend (apparently he is referring to Ryan) …..is a liar.” That juxtaposition of opposite meanings is, in itself, jarring and ridiculous, but Biden continues to refer to Ryan as his friend while, time after time, ripping him with accusations of being a liar, being uncaring of average Americans, being only for the rich. Some friend, huh? n nOver and over again, Biden purports to tell the audience that, apparently, ONLY HE, can tell you what Romney’s/Ryan’s REAL policies are……don’t listen to Romney and Ryan……I…..I will tell you WHAT their policies are. Apparently, he asserts, Romney and Ryan are engaged in some kind of sophisticated subterfuge. Yes, they TELL you what their policies ARE…..but, that is just a chimera…..a false front hiding what their REAL policies are. And, amazingly, no one has uncovered the secret agenda of Romney and Ryan…..but I….I HAVE! n nI get the impression that Biden is the old time salesmen, the big smile on his face, the hearty pat on the back of the prospect “Trust me….you’ve known me forever….would I lie to you?…….forget this young whippersnapper….here is the contract”, he says shoving it across the table and under the nose of the prospect, “Just sign on the dotted line, and I’ll take care of everything….you’ll be fine”. n nWell, the question comes down to this, I think…….Joe is the used car salesman who sold me a lemon last year. Now, he’s telling me to forget all that, it was a misfortune, but, after all, it was a used car, sold “as is”, and one bad apple can be in any basket. But, forget all that…THIS car is a honey….you won’t regret it….Trust me……. n n‘Oh’, Joe goes on, ‘that new guy down the street with that other car….well, yeah, it LOOKS good…it’s got an outside mechanics inspection, you say…but, come on…you can’t trust that young guy….he’s lying to you……take my word…you can’t believe all that malarkey’. n nI don’t know about you, but as soon as I run into this type of guy….I don’t walk away……I run…… I simply cannot tolerate being around this type of manipulative operator. Instead, when I am looking for solutions on what to buy, what to do to solve anything….I am looking for a guy like Ryan ….somebody who gives every indication of having a thorough understanding and command of the problem, and is giving plenty of sound information. n nI NEVER trust the guy who tells me in manipulative words to just leave it to him, just trust him, he’ll take care of my needs……. n n"Hey, you can TRUST me!” n nNo, sir……by your words and by your demeanor, it is obvious, that I cannot. n
The simple fact is this is still a center right nation…it does not want fundamental transformation… n nIt's coming, a tsunami that will flush all these swocialists right off the hill and back into the swamp….. n nThe people spoke in 2010…in the words of the great PJ O'Rourke "the people put a restraining order on the insane spending in Washington", the nitwit progressives in power did not hear the word of the people….they will in little over a month as they flushed out of the swamp in a tsunami…. n nAll the lies and obfuscation provided by the fifth column, formerly the fourth estate, will not save the Chosen One from the fall….
When a candidate starts polling over 50%, there's trouble for the other guy. That's on of the things that should concern the Obama campaign the most, he simply cannot poll over 50% in most state races. Those "undecideds" rarely fall toward the incumbant. n nMr. Buden's performance last evening may have played well with regard to the democratic base but even that is a concern for the left. Just a few weeks before the election and you're still trying to energize your base, you're in trouble. n nBeyond that, Mr. Obama needs to focus on the undecided voter and Mr. Biden did nothing but hurt that effort. I suspect the female voter may have found Mr. Biden to be somewhat negative and that is the undecided voter by and large.
Sliming your opponent, race-baiting, lying, subverting, running away from their record, using shills like Carney, Axelrod, Plouffe, Wasserman-Schultz and Cutter to do your dirty work, Jokin' Joe Biden for a sidekick….gee why on earth would they be losing the race?! n nThank God they just go from bad to worse…any Hail Mary or October Surprise they manifest now will be scrutinized for the blatent, desperate lies they'll be (ie 'forgetting' to include California in the labor stats last week-seriously?). Obama has marginalized himself and his administration in a way the opposition never could have. n nKarma is real and Obama's is coming back to steamroll him and his minions right out of office!
@rhcrest nI fear the stupid people more. I am amazed this race is even remotely close. Even a cow knows to run when it's jolted with a cattle prod.
Obama doesn't need Florida to win. Mitthead does.
Aside from the pressing issues at hand, Americans perceived Obama to be sheepish and weak at his first debate. No American can correlate our national global strengths to a befuddled man as our president who could not properly defend himself and his record against his lone challenger on the debate floor. Above and beyond the issues, Americans want a strong leader with a command of the issues and clear view for the future. Obama failed to deliver. He shocked his supporters and those that want to replace him. It is not only Florida that Obama may loose, the dominoes are beginning to fall.
The message that needs to go out to Hispanic voters (side note, in this post-racist nation, why do we still insist on boxing in voters to these categories!?) is that if they are here legally through proper immigration channels, why would they want to dilute the value of the citizenship that they worked so hard for by anything but the toughest of standards!? I'm an immigrant (legal) and that's exactly how I feel – it took time, money, effort, and patience, and the last thing I want is some illegal yahoos riding in on my coat tails. If legal immigrants, whether Latino, Chinese, Japanese, Cambodian, or Kenyan, heard that argument made succinctly, it would resonate all the way to the voting booth to a check mark next to the candidate who swears to obey the law and protect their rights of CITIZENSHIP rather than dilute them. n nEvery Latino I've spoken with on this matter feels that way when it's framed in such equitable simplicity!
No, all Romney really needs to say is: nAmerica, vote for an American.
You know there was a guy in Germany about 80 years ago that used to talk about "vote German" and accused people of a different religious faith and race as being "not real Germans." Is it any different that what you are saying.
Yes, it was. Are you too ignorant to see the difference?
the difference is Obama's results as President have been horrible. He added $5 T to the deficit, did not improve unemployment (has 23 Million people looking for work and many millions more dropping out of the work force), GDP growth of 1.3% (less than 40% of normal growth), added 15 milion people to foodstamps, and grew our debt to larger than our GDP (at $16 T). His plan for 4 more years is more insane spending, and driving our debt up to $20 T (which is 133% of our entire US economy/GDP). So, even if he is a real American with good intentions, he is not a good CEO of the US. He works for the voters and we have to let him go.
Obama's problem is egotism but not the type you think. He is so egotistical that he really BELIEVED that he could solve the MESS THAT GEORGE BUSH LEFT in 3 years thus his stupid declaration that he could. After 12 years of Reagan and Bush the first, the country had the biggest deficit in its history. It took BILL CLINTON 8 years to turn that deficit into the biggest surplus in history. Then Bush II came in and in 8 years turned that biggest surplus in history into another biggest deficit in history. n nAnd then comes Obama, with his conceited self, and he figures, "if Clinton can do it in 8 years, I can do it in 3." So he makes that silly statement. He is truly conceited. He should have said, "It took 8 years for George W. Bush to turn the greatest surplus in history into the biggest deficit, so it's probably gonna take me more than 4 years, like it did Bill Clinton, to completely get out of this mess. n nBut his hatred for the Clintons and his own conceit would not allow him to say that. Why do you think that the GOP did not mention George Bush ONCE in their convention? n nThey used to say that George H. W. Bush was born on third base and thought he hit a triple. n nWell, Barack Obama won the Lotto of politics but thought he worked his way up from nothing like John D. Rockefeller. n nWhere we come in is that Romney will now use the same policies of the TWO Bushes to drive us into an all out Depression.
Still blaming Bush for Obama's mess. n nClinton didnt have a surplus, moron. He didnt pay down the debt. Of course it looked like a surplus. n nAsk seniors what they think of Clinton; He taxed their social security.
Yesterday, it is reported that another trillion was added. nHeck, whats a trillion more…
Well, eventually you get into real money . . .
Yes, there's a world of difference. Romney talks about individuals having power over their own lives, over a bureaucrat taking control over them. n nObama sounds more like Hitler in the way that Hitler talked about providing for people through his government. The Nazis had a theme of "Nutrition is not an individual choice". Sound like Michelle Obama?
You know, there is a MADMAN in the White house who is not American. nReminds me of 3 different people; nNapoleon was not French. He was from Corsica. nStalin was not Russian, he was Georgian. nHitler was not German, he was Austrian. nObama. nIs not American, he is Kenyan, by his own admission. n nNext time you choose to debate me, get your facts straight, little person. n nIt is yourself who is for a foreign take-over and using garbage talking points from idiots at Media Matters…who think everyone is a Nazi just because they are Communists. n
I would actually look at it another way — I don't care where you were born or who your parents were, where is your primary affiliation — to America or not? n nIt is the exact issue in the "Israel First" allegations — that one's primary loyalty is to Israel, not America. It is what JFK was accused of because he was Catholic — that his primary loyalty was to Rome (Vatican) and not America. n nObama's primary loyalty is to the world, not to America, and that is the problem.
You know, you are a judgmental fool. Who the hell are you to question people's loyalty? You should leave MY nation. Get lost. Move to some psycho hell hole in the M.E. n nMy father is Seneca/Iroquois. I am a daughter of the American Revolution. n nThat's all you Jew haters have anymore if a Jew is patriotic; boo hoo….Are you an Israel firster. nGo grow up. nPeople are tired of the same old tirade. n nObamas loyalty is to destroy America. Period. His loyalty is not to the 'world'. nIf it was to the 'world', his highness would not have went into Egypt and changed their regime into a Muslim fascist nation. nHe would not have turned Libya upside down. He would not be planning to go to war against Syria to anger Russians and the Chinese. nHe would not be droning in Pakistan. n That some person that is 'for the world.' n nAll you Jew/Israel haters worry about IS Israel. nI BLESS Israel with confession/blessing ad I am instructed by the Bible. n nThat's ALL you Jew hating idiots talk about–incessively>>Israel. n nSick, demented, psychotic, palestinian-first moonbats.
n'It is the exact issue in the "Israel First" allegations' n n"Allegation?" n nNow we are on trial and in court by you God hating demonics. nWe should start charging YOU with allegations of supporting Islamic terror, just BECAUSE you hate people in Israel. n nKoo koo, koo koo. n n n
Wow you're a dolt… This is nothing like that… We president that is unfit to lead this country and this same president has a following of zombies that this this guy is the second coming of Jesus Christ. Obama is great when he is giving other people's hard earned money away to those that don't deserve it.
I’m going to get the greatest “kick” since the 1950′s when Romney is elected and immediately abolishes the HOME MORTGAGE DEDUCTION which every economists says he has to in order to make his numbers work.
Either he is a liar or he will have gotten you to elect him after which he will discover there is no magic way to keep the Bush tax breaks for the wealthy as well as the middle class without sending the deficit spiraling out of control.
But he can do if he ends the home mortgage deduction.
And that’s okay because BOY do the millionaires really need those Bush tax cuts.
Crappy poll. Who the hell is TBT?herald? GOP hacks.
This is totally UNsurprising. "Everybody knew" that there was a big anti-Obama potential here in Florida and what it took (notice I didn't write "all it took") was for Romney to show himself to be a viable alternative which he did. As Charles krauthammer put it, Romney, by his performance in the debate negated the millions of dollars Obama spent trying to destroy him. n nIt's good to see Democ-rat money wasted!
That is my view too — voters just needed a REASON to switch and FINALLY Romney gave them one!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Will Obama try Biden's Chuckles the Clown routine in the next debate?
If Obama wins Florida Romney doesn't have a prayer in hell of winning the election. If Romney wins Florida, odds are that Obama will still win regardless. It would be nice if the president could pick up the state, then we could all go to bed early, but if he doesn't, he still has to lose several states that he's been polling ahead in for Romney to stand a chance.
,As to Hispanics, the are Catholics the same way that Jew are Jews — not all are religious, many haven't set foot into a church in this century, and proudly do everything that the Vatican tells them not to. But at the most basic level, they consider themselves Catholic and they view an attack on the Catholic Church itself as an attack on them — even though they are not following the Papal edicts upon which the attacks are based. n nKosher is a good analogy — what would be the reactions of Jewish voters were Obama's FDA to prohibit Kosher inspections & labeling of food? My guess is that lots and lots of people who haven't had a Kosher meal in this century would be outraged and consider it an attack on *them*, even though they don't eat Kosher food. n nThis was Obama's mistake — and it comes from him being Protestant (where religious policy is set by the congregation) and not Catholic (where it comes down from the Pope) – they will defend the Catholic Church even though they totally ignore it.
'As to Hispanics, the are Catholics the same way that Jew are Jews' n nLook at you. The judge AND the jury on where people stand in their hearts and minds. n nWhy don't you start looking at your OWN fault, your highness.
Remember too the Mother/Daughter issue. n nIf a woman is thinking in terms of herself, knowing that *she* will make the decision as to whom she sleeps with — and having total confidence in her own decisions — it leads to one take on things like abortion, birth control and such. n nIf a woman is thinking about her daughter — whom she both wants to protect from the harm of the world and whose judgment in guys she does *not* trust (and never will) — it leads to the exact opposite take on things like abortion, birth control and such. n nIt becomes the difference between "maybe I will have a child later if I want one" and "you just killed my grandchild and I likely won't live long enough to enjoy another." n nIt becomes the difference between an adult woman and her freedom to do what she wants with her body and a child being exploited sexually by the world. Et Cetera. n nThe more older the voter, the more likely he/she/it is thinking as a parent — and in terms of women over 50, blood pressure meds are of far more concern than birth control ones. n nAnd which age group is most likely to actually vote?