Because tomorrow’s debate will be in a town hall format with audience interaction, it’s going to pose different challenges for the candidates than the last podium debate. Here are six pitfalls President Obama and Mitt Romney might run into:
1. Getting too personal:
President Obama’s campaign has said he’ll be more aggressive in this debate, leading some to wonder whether that will play negatively in a town hall format. But an aggressive back-and-forth over policy can actually be a good thing; President Bush and Senator John Kerry had some engaging but heated exchanges at their town hall in 2004 over national security. The problem is when the attacks are perceived as bitter or personal, like Senator John McCain’s reference to Obama as “that one” in 2008. Obama comes in with a disadvantage tomorrow, since his supporters expect him to aggressively criticize Romney to make up for his lackluster performance last time. Unless he keeps the attacks funny and light, they could backfire on him.
2. Rambling too much:
Keeping answers focused and succinct is a good idea in any debate, but it’s particularly important during town hall debates because the faces of audience members are visible and the feedback is more obvious. Speakers often feed off the energy level of an audience, and a room full of bored people isn’t going to encourage a lively debate. Plus, high definition means that viewers at home are going to pick up on every yawn, glazed eye or baffled expressions in the audience. SNL mocked some of McCain and Obama’s rambling answers after their town hall debate in 2008.
3. Failing to connect with the audience:
Town hall debates allow the candidates to personally appeal to the audience, and Bill Clinton’s “I feel your pain” ad lib at the first televised town hall debate in 1992 is the quintessential example. Neither Romney nor Obama really excel in this area, and in 2008, Obama was much cooler toward the audience than John McCain. That’s going to be a challenge for both Obama and Romney tomorrow.
4. Physical appearances are more obvious:
The age difference between Obama and McCain was never more obvious than at their town hall debate, because there’s no podium to hide behind and the candidates had to walk around and respond directly to audience members. Physical appearance probably won’t be as much of an issue tomorrow, since age hasn’t been a factor in this election and Romney and Obama are around the same height. But certain body language, and the way the candidates carry themselves, may be more noticeable.
5. Getting rattled:
Obama and Romney have pretty calm demeanors, but they’ve also both gotten rattled under tough questioning. Romney blew up after Rick Perry accused him of hiring illegal immigrants at one of the GOP primary debates last year, and Obama has been known to snap at aggressive reporters. The president also had difficulty hiding his personal animosity for Romney at the last debate, which could make him more likely to get flustered or annoyed tomorrow. Tensions also run higher in the less-formal format. Last week, long-time Democratic incumbent congressmen Brad Sherman and Howard Berman — who are locked in a competitive run-off — nearly got into a physical altercation at a town hall-style debate.
6. Not staying for the aftershow:
Reporters often interview audience members after the debate, so the candidates want to try to leave them with a good impression. In 2008, McCain was criticized for leaving shortly after the debate ended, while Obama stuck around posing for photos and answering questions. It’s a small thing, but it could make a difference in the post-coverage.
Maybe Romney can plant his Powerpoint presentation onto Obama's secret wristwatch tele-prompter? Will Bill Clinton be prompting Obama through an invisible earwig? n nI admire Romney's Powerpoint style – keeps it simple and clear. I once had to explain and forecast the US economy, and the impact on our procurement budget, in four Powerpoint slides. n nand, am impressed that Obama is suddenly brave enough to set foot on Long Island for anything other than a private fundraiser. n nNeither should go ad hominem. We want serious candidates speaking about serious issues. nJust once, be serious and sober. noh, sorry, forgot that this is the Land of the not-so-Free and Home of Reality TV.
Romney may have personal empathy than people realize — and he also has the personal story of what it is like to almost die in a car crash in which (a) you friends did die and (b) your parents we first told that you also were dead. (This may be part of his almost-instinctive decision to shut Bain down and go find that girl.) n nIf he does it, it will be because he has chosen to, but you kinda know that there is going to be some leftie with a question along the lines of "how can you know what it is like to be unemployed and homeless and having no hope for the future" — and imagine the impact of him responding with a description of what it was like to wake up in the hospital after the accident, vividly remembering the horror and learning of the consequences, and *then* pulling himself up out of that bed. (Not everyone does.) n nHe's probably too proud to do this, but I would so dearly love to see it. And what can Obama say in response — that he laughed and left a friend behind when the car rolled over on one of their stoned-out-of-their minds run up the mountain? n nNotwithstanding this, I think that Romney will connect with the crowd in a way that TelePrompterBHO can not possibly do. Remember too that Romney is a salesman — he had to sell his firm's products to investors in a way that Obama is not.
My question is: assuming Obama does better over the next two debates, assuming that Romney continues to do very well so that the remaining debates can objectively seen as "draws," and assuming the vp debate was (1) a draw and (2) inconsequential in any event, how does the race come out and why?
Answering myself, I wonder if this is a good analysis: leaving the respective ground games to the side, the first debate is finally what raised the wind now seemingly at Romney's back; so, therefore, Romney has the momentum; therefore, draws ought not staunch that momentum; and, if so, why wouldn't it continue given the last bad four years and the true exploding scandal concerning Benghazi?
If tomorrow's town hall meeting takes direct questions from the audience, there will be a built-in difficulty for Romney, the conservative. Usually, questions are very personal, reflecting the problems of the individuals asking the questions. Answers easily play into the mindset of liberal politicians. In response, the conservative candidate(Romney), ends up either trying to outbid his opponent, or evading the question with generalities which, then, are criticized for not answering the question. And he must do this directly facing some unfortunate individual who sincerely may be having difficulties. Not making fun of anyone's personal problems, this is how it goes: " Mr. Romney, my children all have disabilities and I'm dependent upon government aid. But you want to cut the government. What am I going to do if you're elected?" The type of question liberals love!
I hope Romney can answer that the safety net is going to be there — but the questioner can be helped a lot more than that by energy independence and the lower costs not just for gasoline, but for electricity and home heating and at the super market, even in the cost of delivery and thus the cost of the supplies the questioner's doctor uses to treat his children. And then maybe go on about the loss of income in the middle class, the rising costs of health insurance under Obamacare, etc., etc., etc. n nThe "progressive's" strawman conservative will be expected to tell everyone something nasty and negative, but that is not Romney (or any conservative, really) and it's why he won the last debate!
great point about energy independence. A Cuomo is currently between a rock and bigger rock on fracking the Marcellus Shale that extends into upstate New York, plus Yonkers, Syracuse, and a 3rd upstate city are begging for bailouts to pay for public sector pensions. n nPlus, Romney has never really explained how his energy plan (which seems close to Rick Perry's original plan and he never developed a sales pitch) jumpstarts job creation and royalties from opening up public lands elsewhere. n nSince New York makes the countuies pay 1/3 of Medicaid, and real estate taxes on Long Island are beyond belief, I would hope the actual question would be framed about why Obamacare expands coverage through more expansive Medicaid when New York is proof that does not work. I am assuming Gallup is choosing undecided voters who live on Long Island. nNo one is proposing cutting aid to the disabled. another question should be why Obama had to drop the LongTermCare 'solution' in ACA. LTC is the big $ problem. n nMaybe Obama will get the Jerusalem (capital of what?) question first
My wife, who doesn't follow politics very closely, made an interesting comment after the Biden Talk-and-Smirkathon. She read something about how Obama and Romney were preparing for the next debates – all the stuff we ponder too much (probably). I started to say something, but then she said "Romney doesn't have to prepare – he just has to be himself." And you know, I think she has a point. Romney is intelligent, confident and fundamentally decent – a genuinely compassionate human being. He just has to be Mitt tomorrow night. It's Obama who has to put on act – and his act has gotten stale.
Right on! Beyond that members of the audience can be chosen by the moderator to make the liberal talking points directly. Look for the community college professor in socks and sandals with a tied back gray pony tail who asks Romney why he wants a new war in the Middle East….
"…there will be a built-in difficulty for Romney, the conservative." n nDon't worry, I hear Romney the liberal is planning to show up this time.
OK – I'll bite. What will that look like, Hillel? Be specific, please – otherwise your snark just makes you like one of the knucklehead voters the First Lady is trying to bus to the polling place. Nice company you keep.
>> Don't worry, I hear Romney the liberal is planning to show up this time. n n> OK – I'll bite. What will that look like, Hillel? n nWell, in the past Romney has stated he believes man made global warming is real, he promised to defend existing pro-choice laws while serving as governor in Massachusetts, he said he was even more pro-gay rights than Ted Kennedy and that he would be a voice in the Republican Party to foster anti-discrimination efforts. n nMore recently, in the last debate he tried to imply he would no longer cut effective tax rates for the rich. He approved of government regulation of Wall Street, he promised that current funding for education and Medicare will be maintained. He recently promised he would not undo the visas of young illegal immigrants made available by president Obama earlier this year etc. etc.. And he has of course tried to muddy the waters on abortion too.
He didn't imply, he stated outright. The result of the decrease in marginal rates will be cancelled by the decrease in deductions (and not, dynamically scored, accounting for later revenue growth, but arithmetically). O's jiving about the "5 trillion" regardless, especially if this is now, or, who knows?, has always been Romney's plan. If it is the plan, however, I don't get the point…On abortion he has said he plans no new legislation on abortion.
The problem may be the moderator. n nI hope Romney has a pack of Dove bars along to bribe her into being fair. n nThough It may take six servings of creme brule, by the looks of it.
I don't think Crowley will be in the tank for Obama. She's a pretty straight shooter, and will be equally tough, if tough at all, with both, which I think is more disadvantageous for Obama because he has more to answer for.
I expect BHO to offer everything fathomable (free gas, cell phones, travel vouchers) to win votes, and then challenge Romney to go further. But seriously, I see this as his only chance to persuade voters. Nevermind that his prior campaign promises were quickly rescinded.
"there’s no podium to hide behind" nNo, the correct term is lecturn. A podium is something one stands on.