Mitt Romney gained three points since last week in the Politico/GWU battleground tracking poll, but the bigger news is that he’s leading President Obama by two points — the first time he’s been on top in this poll since early May:
A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of 1,000 likely voters — taken from Sunday through Thursday of last week — shows Romney ahead of Obama by two points, 49 to 47 percent. That represents a three-point swing in the GOP nominee’s direction from a week ago but is still within the margin of error. Obama led 49 percent to 48 percent the week before. …
Across the 10 states identified by POLITICO as competitive, Romney leads 50 to 48 percent. …
Two weeks from Election Day, the GOP nominee also continues to maintain a potentially pivotal advantage in intensity among his supporters. Seventy-two percent of those who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 80 percent who back Romney. Among this group, Romney leads Obama by 7 points, 52 to 45 percent.
The intensity gap is just one of Obama’s problems. He’s also losing ground with women voters:
Women propelled Romney’s move into first place in the poll — a majority of which was conducted before the Hofstra debate. Obama’s 11-point advantage a week ago among the crucially important group dwindled to 6 points. The Democratic incumbent still leads 51 to 45 percent with women, but Romney leads by 10 points among men.
As noted above, most of the poll was taken pre-Hofstra debate, which explains the Obama campaign’s obsession with “binders full of women.” But the War on Women gimmicks seem to have lost their potency. Sandra Fluke’s Nevada rally that drew just 10 people to a Sak-n-Save parking lot this week is an apt metaphor for Obama’s fumbling campaign.
There are also some post-Hofstra polls out today that show Romney’s momentum continuing in the swing states. Obama’s 10-point Ohio lead last month has slipped to five points in the Quinnipiac/CBS News poll. And the president is ahead by just one point in the PPP Ohio poll, down from a five-point lead last week. The Obama campaign has argued the national polls showing Romney tied or ahead are far less meaningful than the swing state ones. But a few more polls like these, and Chicago may come to regret that argument.