On Wednesday, Mullah Omar, the elusive leader of the Taliban, released a message for the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha, which this year falls on October 26. Omar’s message is well worth reading, especially against the backdrop of Obama administration efforts to negotiate with the Taliban.
As Ahmad Majidyar—probably the most astute Afghanistan analyst in the United States—points out, Mullah Omar used his address to redouble his commitment to a complete military victory. “We will continue to wage Jihad against the invaders who have invaded our country until the occupation ends completely,” he declared. Obama and Governor Romney might both have reaffirmed the 2014 pullout date during their most recent debate, but let us hope that they did so fully cognizant that no amount of spin will convince Afghans and Afghanistan’s neighbors that the withdrawal is anything but a Taliban victory.
Mullah Omar celebrates the “Green on Blue” attacks which have brought the Taliban to the verge of victory. I’ve addressed the ideological motivation behind the “Green on Blue” attacks, here. The Pentagon continues to hamper itself by rooting insider attacks more in grievance than in jihadist ideology. Hopefully, Mullah Omar’s message will put a rest to that silly notion:
We call on the Afghans who still stand with the stooge regime to turn to full-fledged cooperation with their Mujahid people like courageous persons in order to protect national interests and to complete independence of the country. Jihadic activities inside the circle of the State militias are the most effective stratagem. Its dimension will see further expansion, organization and efficiency if God willing. I urge every brave Afghan in the ranks of the foreign forces and their Afghan hirelings who may find an opportunity to utilize this opportunity effectively and quash the enemies of Islam and country in their centers and use all possible means, opportunities and tactics to strike them. This is because Jihad is an obligation enjoined on every one. It is the duty of every individual of the nation from religious perspective and on the basis of his conscious to strive for the liberation and independence of his country.
Likewise, it is essential the Obama administration and the State Department pay attention to what Mullah Omar says of negotiations and diplomacy, especially as that has become the central pillar of the Obama administration’s exit strategy. Omar makes no secret that his goal in talks is the release of prisoners—not peace with the Afghan government. He assures Afghans that the Taliban is “neither thinking of monopolizing power nor [do we] intend to spark off domestic war,” but any Afghan knows to take such assurances at his peril. After all, Mullah Omar made the same assurances upon taking Kandahar in 1994 and again in 1996, right before the Taliban seized Kabul and purged all opposition.
Afghans have never lost a war; they just defect to the winning side. At a dinner party a month ago, a CIA operative who recently returned from Afghanistan said she thought that soft-partition was going to be the best possible outcome. Partition—soft or hard—will be impossible in Afghanistan, however, because it ignores the importance of momentum. Mullah Omar appreciates what the CIA doesn’t. “Our Jihadic momentum has reached a phase that enjoys comprehensive global Islamic support.”
Jihadists issue declarations all the time. They are not without meaning. Some are defensive, and others are fantastical. Mullah Omar’s tone and statements, however, are illustrative of his goals and strategy. Let us hope that a desire to withdraw “on schedule” will not affirm Mullah Omar’s triumphalism.
Mr. Rubin, why do you consider a partition of the country "impossible" ? n nIndeed, a partition of the country into its various ethnic provinces and secured by the warlords and tribal chiefs is the natural condition of Afghanistan, something we have been fighting against in vain for the last 11 years. Far better to find Locals in each province who will keep out the Taliban — not for love of America or democracy or nationalism– but for their bitter experience with prior Taliban rule and the financial and military backing the U.S. can give them. Such arrangements would give the U.S. enough of a presence in Afghanistan to launch SOF operations while allowing for a radical reduction in the U.S. footprint and expense. n nTraining a so-called Afghan National Army is a farce (something that Romney was sadly forced to endorse). When all is said and done the Afghans will return to their various provinces and their 9th century lifestyles with their loyalties firmly behind their tribe or local warlord. There is no reason that the U.S. cannot live with and support this arrangement so long as we retain the ability to bring in crushing force against any Islamist training camps or other facilitators. It would not be surprising, in fact, if AQAM decided to stay in Pakistan where they enjoy a certain amount of immunity from U.S. ground assaults rather than come back to A-stan and lose their Pakistani nuclear umbrella.
First and foremost Obama is a campaigner. Everything he says and does is filtered through that. He doesn't care in the least what happens to Afghanistan only to how that is viewed in relation to his re election, but to be fair, how can anyone care about an winnable chaos like this? In any case he'll bolt from that part of the world, it will slide back into the Dark Ages and hopefully they'll be too preoccupied with slaughtering each other in the next round of the Arab Spring to worry about killing Democratic voters in the US.