Last week’s Pew poll found that President Obama is trailing Mitt Romney among early voters — a group he won by a large margin in 2008 — and the latest party identification breakdown of early voters from the United States Election Project and Politico support that:
In Colorado, Republicans have cast 38 percent of the early vote to 35 percent for Democrats and 27 percent for unaffiliated voters. Four years ago, the numbers were reversed: Democrats cast 38 percent, Republicans 36 percent and independents 26 percent.
In Iowa, 43 percent of the early vote this year has been cast by Democrats, 32 percent by Republicans and 24 percent by no party or other. In 2008, the numbers were 47 (D) 29 (R) 24 (NP).
While Nevada doesn’t provide comparative statewide early vote data between 2008 and 2012, a similar pattern emerges in the two counties where the bulk of the state vote will be cast – the Democratic percentage of early votes is down slightly and there’s an uptick in the GOP percentage.
At The Atlantic, Molly Ball also gives a good analysis of North Carolina (Republicans are still trailing, but they’ve significantly closed the gap from ’08) and Florida (same thing). Unfortunately, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania don’t break down voters by party, so analysis there is based on looking at turnout numbers in counties and/or precincts that went heavily for Obama or McCain in 2008. And the early vote turnout is down in Ohio counties Obama won handily in 2008, reports Jim Geraghty.
Obama crushed McCain in the pre-election day vote four years ago, but despite a big push by his campaign and a supposedly unbeatable turnout operation, he’s lagging in key states. In places like Iowa and Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, which Obama won by double-digits in 2008, he still has a buffer zone where he can lose some support and still hold on. But he has much less room for error in Ohio. While swing state polls still seem to indicate a slight lead for Obama, many of them also rely on turnout that looks similar to 2008. From what we’re seeing with early voters, that’s not a realistic expectation.
I voted today in Sandusky, Ohio, which, unfortunately is pretty solidly Democrat. There were 12 to 16 partitioned voting spots, all of which were in use and there were at least 20 people in line when I left (although I was only the 3rd in line when I came this morning). I didn't early vote in 2008, so I don't know what this means comparatively, but it seemed like a lot of people to me.
I envy those of you who still get to go to polling places. I live in Oregon – all vote by mail. I hate it. I voted two weeks ago at my kitchen table and drove my ballot and my wife's ballot to the ballot box, all by myself. That's the community spirit, eh?
Last week I mentioned that it would be fun for the editors of our posts to set aside one day for predictions. So far, it hasn't happened. Why don't we loyal posters rebel and, regardless of the essay topic by one of Commentary's fine contributors, start posting our predictions for president(% and electoral college), Senate and House?
I like the idea. You go first!
One of my political numbers guru is Jay Cost(although he is too optimistic for me) He has a very interesting and persuasive post on Romney's chances in Pennsylvania. Based upon his analysis, Romney does indeed have a reasonable chance of winning the state and therefore is a good explanation why Romney is going there. What he doesn't address is what worries me: is this an attempt, albeit a very reasonable one, to counter what the Romney people see as a loss in Ohio?
Okay, brave, intrepid Commentary friends. Let's get serious and give our predictions. nPopular Vote…………Obama 50.5; Romney 49.5 nElectoral College…….Obama 291 Romney 247 Obama takes Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin, Ohio n Pennsylvania; Romney takes Florida, Virginia, n Colorado, New Hampshire, North Carolina nSenate…………Republican+2 nHouse…….Democrat+2
Oh – good – you're not predicting Senate races by race. I'll respond tomorrow. I'll take an extra day to stick my finger in the wind once more.
I went for a nice beautiful hike in the Willamette Valley with my wife and daughter today and pondered the PA thing while enjoying a rare warmish and rain-free autumn day. If you think about the electoral map as a puzzle and Romney as a puzzle-master, I wonder if the whole PA appearance isn't actually a sign of supreme confidence. Let me see if I can make sense of this somewhere other than in my brain: nGive Romney NC, FL and VA – which you do – and he is 22 short. OH and NH will do it, but so would CO, IA and WI. Since the latter three are truly competitive – you give Romney CO – and Republicans have obvious reasons to be hopeful about WI and IA, where the four major papers have endorsed Romney and Republican registration has evidently surpassed Democratic registration – that leaves WI as the fall back state if OH were deemed truly lost. nOK – so if my logic is logical, that means that IF the Romney campaign thought OH was looking bad, they'd be in Wisconsin, and maybe Iowa. The fact that he is going to PA in addition to any other locations implies a confidence that WI is perhaps unnecessary (or it looks good), which means OH is looking good to the campaign (and that rally last night was impressive). So maybe his trip to PA is a long-shot effort at padding his electoral total. nMay I also note that I may be the first person (in my post above) to use the word "lagniappe" on this site?
Mike, again, your logic is flawless. I''m sure the Willamette Valley is beautiful and you're lucky to live there. But I'll go one better. I live in the beautiful Shenandoah Valley and my county is very Republican and my development is very, very Republican. I rechecked my numbers and they still added up to 247 EV for Mitt. Although I"ll admit, my last math course was as a freshman in college. Where are your numbers?
I'll get my numbers out later this afternoon. Off to listen to a (considerably older- considerably!) friend of mine give a talk – a British secret agent in WW2 who was a guest of both the Gestapo and, in the 1950s, the KGB. Amazing fellow. (Also a friend of Moshe Dayan, come to think of it.) nBut I overheard an interesting conversation at church this morning. A state legislator (D) was talking to a guy and expressing real concern about his party's lack of enthusiasm. He used the word "frantic", actually, to describe the Democrats efforts now to GOTV. The house here is currently tied, 30-30, and this rep was concerned about being in the minority. Anyway, I found it interesting. Won't change my prediction that OR will go for Obama, but it further convinces me that pollsters are assuming too much of a Democratic advantage here and elsewhere.
OK – nRomney 315 nObama 223 nRomney takes all the battleground states (old and new ones!) except NV, MI, MN. On the theory that all of the activity by both campaigns in MN, MI and PA suggests that something real is going on – smoke and fire, you know – I'm going out on a limb with PA. But 295-243 wouldn't surprise me. nSenate – Republicans will end up with 50 or 51. I'll be specific – R's take or hold AZ, NV, MT, WI, ND, NE, VA, OH, MA. The Senate race will follow the presidential vote in many cases, but FL looks lost, and Indiana, disappointingly and to me surprisingly, doesn't look good. Akin may yet pull it off in MO, which I would enjoy even though I think he is less than optimal. PA maybe, if Romney wins the state. I'm taking off the rose-colored glasses here. MA – here's where I may be in denial. I just can't imagine a state electing Warren,even a state that kept electing Kennedy can't be that stupid. Though it is Massachusetts, so we'll see. (And in my wildest dreams I imagine that the good people of WA wake up on Tuesday, realize Cantwell is a non-entity and send her packing.) nHouse – R hold. (That one is easy.) nATR – I probably gave you a heart-attack with those Senate picks!
Mike, obviously we disagree, but I certainly respect your attempt to go public with these projections. Two more days and will see.
I just saw that George Will is picking MN for Romney. George Will – goodness. I may have to make an adjustment to my numbers if he has Romney winning by a greater margin than I do. nEven Bill Kristol is predicting a Romney win. nBut, yes, we'll know by Wednesday early morning, I think. I'm not expecting a nail-biter. One advantage to living on the West Coast is that three hour time difference for events like this. Almost all of the excitement is in the Eastern Time Zone – well, except for the Florida panhandle that caused such a fiasco in 2000.
Florida voters give the nod to Pat Buchanan, election heads to the House of Representatives…
besht2003 ,thanks for the levity. Personally, I can use some. I'm beginning to take myself and this entire election too seriously.
well, i have said for a long time that you- aroundthetrack- is the cassandra of these columns. For a loyal (?) republican to predict an Obama victory puts you in the dock with Chris Christie, but I'll give you my predicitions : Popular vote- Romney 51%- Obama 49 %_Romney takes FL, VI, NC, CO and new Hampshire handily._He squeeks out victories in WI, IO and OH. puts him over the top.Obama salvages PA with cheating in Philly but comes short of 270 votes. NV goes Obama.Senate- Republicans take back five (Allen, Thompson, Heather Wilson, Mack and MANDEL!) lose Brown and Maine. Result 50-50 split, tie broken by Veep Ryan. nHouse- too many races to comment but Reps keep house.
Why should you condemn my opinions that are given honestly? It's the old story of someone shooting the messenger. We do not serve the conservative cause if we try to fool ourselves and try to ridicule those who are implying that we have a problem in getting out our message. This is a forum for opinion. I'm open to criticism. That's fine. My conservative Republican credentials which you, once again, question are, I suspect, far more public and extensive than many who ridicule me. As my moniker suggests, though not ancient, I've seen many campaigns over many years; since I was sixteen driving old ladies to the polls. Many excuses. Many people who refuse to confront reality, only never to learn from weaknesses and political vulnerabilities. I hope I'm wrong in seeing an Obama victory. I'll gladly state that I was and will try to learn from that.
Michael and ATT – what I love about this site is not only the excellent bloggers, but the comments. The site is relatively free of irritating bomb-throwers, and for the most part we do a good job of ignoring those that show up once in a while. More importantly, though, there is truly a wide range of conservative opinion here, and people express it intelligently. I'm obviously a bit of a Pollyanna, so reading thoughtful comments from ATT are helpful for me. But I always like that many of us push back hard against his arguments, generally with equally thoughtful responses. He's not the only one who brings a healthy measure of sobriety to the discussion – BDZ and Besht2003 come to mind. nI love the back and forth and hope it continues after Tuesday. Hopefully we'll all be drunk on exuberance for the next week or so, and can say all kinds of giddy things we'll laugh at in a month or two. nHere's hoping!
Well, ugh. Not really in the mood to pick over the corpse, but I did want to say, aroundthetrack, how much I've profited from your input here. And, now that we know the outcome, I have even more respect for your analysis, and look forward to more of it down the road. I, on the other hand, am clearly no Jimmy the Greek. nMay your life overflow with blessings!
Mike, thank you very much. I've enjoyed and learned from your comments as well. Hope we can "bump" into each other here on the Commentary blog again.
ATT – I don't understand why a Republican who thinks Ohio is lost would look to PA to undo the damage. There are more feasible routes to 270 under those circumstances. Seems to me that PA is lagniappe when a Republican is reasonably convinced that OH is a real possibility. Note – I'm not saying I think the Romney campaign is banking on Ohio, just that they must be reasonably confident their chances are good, or that all is being done there that can be done. Wouldn't trips to WI and IA and NH make more sense if OH was seen as beyond hope? nI suspect the efforts in PA are seen as long-shots by a campaign that can afford long shots, not as a hail mary (should that be capitalized?) by a campaign that knows it is going down to defeat. nBut Barone is predicting PA for Romney…
Mike, actually, I think you're right. There would be other places to go to. I"ll start the predictions in a later post. Hope you and many others follow.
ELizabeth Warren will be given a Senate seat either by votes or by Deval Patrick. One way or another.