Commentary Magazine


Romney’s Internal Polls Show Lead in OH, NH, IA

The Daily Mail‘s Toby Harnden reports on the Romney campaign’s internal poll numbers, which apparently show him with a slight edge in Ohio, New Hampshire and Iowa; tied with Obama in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania; and trailing in Nevada:

Mitt Romney is ahead by a single percentage point in Ohio – the swing state that could well decide the election – according to internal polling data provided to MailOnline by a Republican party source.

Internal campaign polling completed on Sunday night by campaign pollster Neil Newhouse has Romney three points up in New Hampshire, two points up in Iowa and dead level in Wisconsin. Most startlingly, the figures show Romney and Obama deadlocked in Pennsylvania.

If the Romney campaign’s internal numbers are correct – and nearly all independent pollsters have come up with a picture much more favourable for Obama – then the former Massachusetts governor will almost certainly be elected 45th U.S. President.

If the campaign is really seeing internal polls like this, it would explain the Romney campaign’s recent confidence. Still, they would also be the only recent polls that show Romney with an edge in Ohio and New Hampshire. For the past week, every other poll has shown a tie or Obama with a slight lead in those states, and in the RCP polling average Obama is up 2.9 percent in Ohio and 2 percent in New Hampshire. That doesn’t mean the Romney internal polls are wrong or even that far off from what we’re seeing elsewhere, just that they’re more favorable for Romney than the other polling — not a surprise, since they’re internals.