The Republican Jewish Coalition released the exit polls they took yesterday and declared victory in the presidential contest. President Obama won re-election, but his share of the Jewish vote in the RJC poll was 68 percent–down from the 78 percent that he received in 2008. Mitt Romney received approximately 32 percent of Jewish ballots, a figure that is about 10 percent more than the paltry 22 percent won by John McCain. Democrats may dispute these figures, but they roughly conform to the results obtained in the national exit poll taken by CNN. Two questions arise out of a careful look at these numbers.
First, what was the primary cause of this rise in the GOP vote? Second, and perhaps even more important, is whether Republicans really ought to be celebrating this result as much as the RJC says they should. The obvious answer to the first question is President Obama’s fractious relationship with the state of Israel. The answer to the second is more complicated. Though Republicans are right to see these numbers as evidence of the incremental progress they’ve made since the party bottomed out among Jews in 1992, they should also be asking themselves if they will ever again have an opportunity to do as well as they did this year.
As for the cause of a nearly 20-percent swing in the Jewish vote since 2008, it is difficult to argue that Israel was not a key factor in explaining the change in the last four years. Though liberals will point out that President Obama lost ground with virtually all demographic groups except for African-Americans, Hispanics and young voters, the gap between the nearly 10 points he lost among Jews and what may turn out to be about a three-percent drop in his overall vote total in 2008 requires an explanation. Since it is highly unlikely that a generally liberal Jewish community was more perturbed by the economy, it’s difficult to avoid the conclusion that four years of battle between the president and the government of Israel took a toll on Obama’s share of the Jewish vote.
The five- to six-percentage point difference between his overall decline and the ground he lost among Jews is easily understood as the product of the fights Obama picked and the questions his conduct raised among pro-Israel voters about his trustworthiness. While a small percentage of the Jewish vote, it is still a sign that a significant number of Jewish Democrats cared deeply about the issue. Though few Jews consider Israel the No. 1 issue at stake yesterday, the RJC poll reported that 76.5 percent of the respondents consider Israel to be either “very important” (30.2 percent) or “fairly important” (46.3 percent). And that seemed to be reflected in the poll in which 22.8 percent said Obama was “pro-Palestinian” and 17.4 said he was just neutral.
By posting a 50-percent gain over what McCain received, the RJC can claim a moral victory of sorts. It can also credibly assert that with its ad campaigns aimed at Jewish voters, it is building its brand and increasing market share in the community. The 31-32 percent Romney got also marks the highest total for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. That’s nothing to sneeze at and should, at least in theory, scare Democrats into thinking that they are on the wrong end of a trend that could ultimately start to make even more serious inroads into their longtime near-monopoly of the Jewish vote, especially when you consider that Republicans continue to do best among Orthodox Jews, the fastest growing sector of the community.
Those who will argue that the RJC didn’t get much in return for the prodigious effort they made with Jewish voters should take into consideration that the Democrats took this threat seriously. Not only did they campaign hard to defend Obama’s record on Israel in the last year, with extravagant and inaccurate praise of him as the Jewish state’s best friend to ever sit in the White House, the president noticeably adjusted his policies as part of an election-year Jewish charm offensive. Without it, it’s probably the case that Democratic losses would have been much greater.
But the GOP shouldn’t be celebrating too loudly.
The problem with looking at the 2012 results as part of an upward trend for Republicans is that this election was a unique opportunity to win Jewish votes that may not be replicated again for many years.
For more than thirty years, Jewish Republicans have looked to the 1980 election, in which Ronald Reagan set the modern record for the GOP share of the Jewish vote with 39 percent. In that period, they have searched for another Reagan who could do as well. They have found that even when their nominee was considered an even more ardent friend of Israel than the Gipper — as George W. Bush was when he ran for re-election in 2004 — they still fell far short of their goal.
Their problem was that they were looking through the wrong end of the telescope. Instead of another Reagan, what they needed was someone to play the role of Jimmy Carter, the president whose antagonism to Israel set in motion the 1980 exodus of Jewish voters to the GOP. That’s exactly what they got in Obama.
If, as RJC leaders Matt Brooks and Ari Fleischer insisted on a teleconference with the press about the poll today, it was unfair to expect a party to do better than the 10 percent gains they got yesterday, it must still be observed that they are highly unlikely to be presented with as inviting a target four years from now. Indeed, if a Republican couldn’t do better than 32 percent with Obama as an opponent, it’s likely they will lose ground rather than gain more if they are presented with a Democrat who is demonstrably more sympathetic to Israel than the president.
While the growth of the Orthodox community gives the RJC some hope, their encouraging 2012 results are really just more proof of their intractable problem: convincing an overwhelmingly liberal group to vote for Republicans.
I think that Max Boot underestimates the deep demographic changes that are happening in the jewish public. He alludes to it tangently when he speaks about the growth of the orthodox element but it goes much deeper than that. The general non-orthodox Jewish population is fully aligned with the Democrats on social issues (abortion, gay marriage) , whereas the orthodox element is fully aligned with the Republicans on their present line on this. But here is the kicker: less and less young non-orthodox Jews identify with Judaism and they intermarry at a high rate. Those jews are disappearing at a frightful rate and it may well be just another election cycle or two that the orthodox element will reach 30/40% and maybe more. Hence, even without major input, the public that considers itself jewish will turn Republican.
It bewilders me why the Jewish people accept the treatment from the Democratic party and still vote for them. I have lived with the jewish people and found them to be very intelligent. They have always had my respect. No matter how intelligent one is there is always the problem of common sense. Now that is another matter. That may or may not be the problem with the Jewish people !!! I don't know, someone tell me !!!
The Jewish community was part of the Progressive Movement that set up in Chicago back in the early years of WWII….they lean very much to the Left because of their understanding of tikun olam. They have had the concept of "social justice" ingrained into their DNA for a long time. Because they generally are better off than most of the other groups in America, they do their best to appear to appear more into social justice than the Republicans or a majority of Americans in general. Now, the Jews are becoming very secular…hmmmm
Yes, and when you consider the fact that the new Obama coalition is composed primarily of Hispanics and Blacks, two groups who demonstrate higher levels of anti-semitic attitudes on surveys conducted by the ADL, you have to wonder why Jews stay in the Democratic Party. It is true that the secular component of American Jewry is starting to disappear. Perhaps, in my view as a secular Jew concerned with Israeli and Jewish security, none too quickly. Many secular American Jews with their indifference to Israel really are more damaging to its security, since they provide cover for the anti-Israel activities of the Obama administration and the progressives. Better we have a smaller community that is better defined as strongly identifying Jews with unequivocal devotion to Jewish survival and security, here and abroad.
BathesdaDog,Thank you for your reply. You are perfectly right. The Jewish people should nreconsider supporting those people who support them. Talk is cheap, they need to be more cautious of ones actions rather than ones words ! Thank you !!!
"Max Boot underestimates.."?? You mean Jonathan Tobin?
If Obama were white, he'd have received less of the Jewish vote.
Quite profound. i.e. Precisely true.
Please explain your comment !!
Guilt. Was it Annie Hall…or some other Woody Allen movie where his old parents are quarreling over the Hispanic maid (?) who's stealing stuff from their house? Woody's dad says: "Leave her alone, what do you expect, she's entitled." (a rough paraphrase). Well, same with Obama. He's black, he's been screwed, he's entitled to screw us. Look, anybody who's honest can clearly see that Borat Obambam is a quantum leap worse than Carter. Jews abandoned Carter to a good extent because he was/is such a prick. They'd have done the same with Obama if he were also white.
you write: n nWell, same with Obama. He's black, he's been screwed, he's entitled to screw us. n nIn what way has Obama been screwed? He was born 'black"? He has to see a black face in the mirror> n nIn every single way he had a privileged upbringing. The son of a PhD academicsent to the best private schools? The best universities paid for by 'people'. n nWe have to remember his mentor, the Rev Wright who famously said…. when questioned about his relationship with Farrakhan n nHe called Farrakhan, leader of the Nation of Islam, one of the "most important voices" of his times. "Louis Farrakhan is not my enemy. He did not put me in chains, he did not put me in slavery and he didn't make me this color," he said. n n….. and he didn't make me this color," n nThat is the core issue-who made him "this color"? That is who he hates, that is the source of his resentment. That is how he understands, he has been screwed! n n n
"a Democrat who is demonstrably more sympathetic to Israel " in 2016? nObama's anti-war, palestinian-loving base is only going to make the ongoing under-the-msm-radar civil war inside the Democratic Party (and I do not mean the Clintons) worse. n nThere is no bench, although I am going to follow WV's Joe Manchin more closely.. n nI think the exit polls reflect Jewish voters not wanting to be blamed. I almost did not vote out of fear from the poll workers, but a neighbor was in charge and he let me scan my own ballot because I keep telling him how New York has robbed us of our secret ballot by having the poll worker visually check our paper ballots before they insert it into the scanner. n nIt is still difficult to not think about Mormon proselytizing and posthumous baptisms. n nThe GOP needs to find a Methodist who somehow tames the Santorum wing. nOops. That would be Governor James Richard Perry of Texas, Defender of Jerusalem, who I hope has great future success in Texas, Israel's 4th largest trade partner.
The bottom is this: a majority of Americans identifying as Jewish will never vote for a Republican candidate regardless if the Republican candidate was Moses, Sarah, Rebecca, or Miriam. However, the non-Orthodox population is shrinking with each year due to assimilation/intermarriage. So, the Orthodox community will make up a higher percentage of the number of American Jews supporting the Republican Party.
It doesn't matter how much effort Republicans put into Jewish outreach, most Jews will regard Republicans as an enemy, I think most Jews in this country consider themselves Jewish in an ethnic sense only. Their "religion" is secular progressivism.
For most non-Orthodox Jews, their primary religion is Liberalism, not Judaism.
How much appeal does The Christian Democrat Party have for Jews? The abortion stuff is especially offputting to the Jewish women who have discussed the election with me. n nAnd Clare. We have two Progressive parties in America. Why do I say that? Both operate on the principle "Government should…" . They only differ in "…" .
As long as the Republican Party remains tied to its conservative base who put "social issues" above economic issues, most Jews will remember nativism and their nasty treatment at the hands of the WASP elite in America, hence will stick with the progressive party that respects indvidual rights and practices "inclusion", however incomplete that acceptance may be in reality.
You're correct. We probably need a third party which has a base supporting fiscal and foreign policies only. Social issues do not belong in politics. How the GOP can support such issues when they pretend to want government out of our hair is beyond me. When religion and politics mix, we get Iran, Islam, and intolerance. The GOP should remind the Church (all churches of all denominations, temples, mosques, etc.) that they should get off the 'dole'. That is, religious institutions should begin paying taxes for their street maintenance, police and fire protection, etc., just like all honest institutions and people. Then they can get into politics (although I still rather they didn't).
I could not agree more.
The majority of American Jews are anti Zionist out of selfishness. They fundamentally do not care what happened to IL They cynically will tell you that they (IL) had the option to go somewhere else! nThis was the same problem in the 2nd WW. The idea is that universalism (their motto) is not possible in IL. This is a silly excuse. nThose Jew who believe that hiding is a solution are adding self-insult to self-injury besides being cowards. nAs far as Republicans, conservatism rings with some form of extremism. They need to redefine themselves for 2012 and thereafter.
I agree that some 68% of American Jews seem not to have looked into the relevant . These are facts such as Obama's desire to "put some daylight" between itself and its only ally in the Middle East,. They include his embracing the Muslim Brotherhood that is known to be currently in a conspiracy with many of its offshoots to engage in a grand jihad to subvert the American government (Holy Land Foundation document) and in a 100 year plan for world domination, per the Swiss document on "The Project" It was the Bush government that first limited the enemy to Al Qaeda, rather than focusing on the Muslim Brotherhood and its many offshoots including Al Qadea. But the Republican Jewish Caucus did not present these facts to American Jews nor the facts on Benghazi. They could have talked about the "Protocols of the Elders of Islam" based on documents whose authenticity was not objected to when they were offered in evidence, with the false "Protocols of the Elders of Zion" long recognized as a Czarist secret police forgery, plagiarized from a french novel with the ethnicty of the chief protagonists changed. n nBut look at the situation in Israel. What percentage of the Israeli Jews vote on the left, looking for a fantasy peace with the fake "Palestinian People", a charade that has been going on far too long. What about the Social Science departments in Israeli Universities that are still feeding Soviet and Arab propaganda poison to their students. What about the Israeli Supreme Court who throws Israeli citizens out of their homes in the middle of the night when there are claims, not by the alleged owners, but by foreign funded NGOs, that they are built on land belonging to Arabs — before they even examine the legitimacy of the claims. n nSo, when one compares the situation in the US, and in Israel, the American Jews do not look quite as bad compared with the Israeli Jews.
I'm a Jewish conservative. I voted for Romney, but was not happy with him as a candidate, much less at the prospect of a President Mitt Romney. n nAs for "social issues," specif. abortion, it is a scandal that any political party focuses on them. Who is Romney to be telling the women in my family what they can and cannot do? Is it Romney's business? Paul Ryan's? And, more to the point, is this a way to convince Americans of the effect "abortion-on-demand" is having on our children. Of course, it is not the way to convince them. n nSame with gay marriage, which is another "social issue" that is highly personal. I am against gay marriage. But should the Congress or the president decide who gets married, who doesn't? Does the federal government issue marriage licenses? For good reasons, they don't. So what is the point of these politicians' claiming gay marriage is their bailiwick? n nMy hope is that we Republicans will leave this to the Democrats. Let them spend their energies talking about contraceptives and abortions, about gay marriages and other "rights" that have no business in national discussions, but belong to the states and local communities to hash out. Let citizens argue these matters face-to-face with one another. And if they cannot, then there will be no resolution of them. Then they'll try again. n nMaybe there is no way to resolve such personal matters, which is what I think. Maybe they must not be resolved but allowed to remain in flux, until the day when a solution presents itself. For now, there are a few states that recognize the right of gay citizens to marry one another. Let the other states decide for themselves as well. Same as with abortions. These are "people" issues. Let the people work it out.
I wonder if for the sake of consistency blackparrot objects to government interference in social issues impacting other cultures such as honor killings (which are becoming more prevalent in the U.S.) , female circumcision. Sati and others. I am also a staunch conservative and I loathe excessive government involvement in my family's affairs, however our culture and values define who we are as a people and as a nation. I never think of abortion as a religious issue, but rather an issue of morality which each individual must resolve in their own. We sometimes have to draw a line between what our society considers morally acceptable even if it is at times inconvenient.
The worst campaign in decades, according to somer nin the know. Wedge issues, abortions, same sex unions and marriage, are local and state issues, NOT FEDERAL. As one pundit said, debates are political theatre, meaningless. r nWhy 2yrs of campaigning..and most especially those Rep debates, which, Newt said, only enhances the Demos? r nThe superpacs with all their millions, wasted their resources and achieved nothing. The Demos ran asmarter campaign appealing to large blocks of voters whose personal interests came before the country. Minorities gave the cushion. My thought: why 68 (Jews are white)r nless than 40 percent non white Hispanics?
How could any Jew vote for Obama? Excuse theexpression but the turkeys really did vote for Christmas.