Over the weekend, provocations on two of Israel’s borders presented the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with new challenges. In the Golan Heights, what was described in reports as “erratic mortar fire” from Syrian army positions brought a sharp, though limited, response from the Israel Defense Forces. In the south, Hamas launched a rocket offensive aimed at Israeli civilian targets. But while the Syrian incident made headlines in the international press since it threatened to drag Israel into the Syrian civil war, it was the situation in Gaza that was the more troubling.
As troubling as the possibility that Israel could be dragged into the ongoing chaos of Syria is, the country’s Gaza dilemma is far more worrisome. Rockets continued to fall on Israel Monday as the Hamas rulers of Gaza continued their own attempt to provoke Israel into an offensive. While both Israel and neighboring Egypt have little to gain from either a repeat of the 2008 Operation Cast Lead, in which Israel knocked out terrorist positions inside Gaza, or a more far-reaching offensive, in which the Islamist terrorist group would actually be deposed, the possibility that at some point Netanyahu will have to do something to stop the rain of fire on his country is very real.
Israelis don’t know for sure whether, as some observers seem to think, the fire from Syria was an attempt by the faltering Assad regime to portray its struggle as one against Israel rather than its own people. Given that such a ploy is a tried and true standby for Arab dictators, it seems logical to think that a desperate Bashar Assad thinks involving Israel in the fighting will bolster support for his embattled government. Yet it is just as likely that the fire into the Golan was unintentional spillover from that war. Certainly it was nothing comparable to the deliberate attacks from the regime on the Turkish border, which is actually a transit and supply route for the rebels who have the support of Ankara.
While Israel has no love for Assad and would be happy to see Iran’s ally fall, it must also ponder whether his replacement by a weak rebel regime would lead to more conflict in the future. Israel is likely to do just about anything to stay out of that mess, and it will take more than a few stray mortar shells to drag it into that war.
But Netanyahu’s choices with regards to Gaza are not so easy. Though Israel’s main strategic focus in the last year has understandably been on the Iranian nuclear threat, Hamas’ ability to make the lives of Israelis living in the south a living hell is a reminder that the enemies on the Jewish state’s border can’t be ignored. Since Saturday, more than 160 rockets have fallen on the region bordering Gaza. Their motives for this offensive are complex.
The impetus for the escalation may stem in part from a desire to remind the world that the Palestinian Authority is merely one of two groups competing for control of a future Palestinian state. The surge in violence doesn’t help PA leader Mahmoud Abbas’s efforts to get the United Nations to unilaterally recognize Palestinian independence without first making peace with Israel, and that suits Hamas’s purposes.
The Hamas fire may also have a tactical purpose. Last Thursday, the Israel Defense Forces discovered a tunnel along the border with Gaza, the intent of which was obviously to facilitate a cross-border terror raid along the lines of the one that resulted in Gilad Shalit’s kidnapping as well as the murder of two other soldiers. Israel has sought to establish a 300-meter no-go zone on the Gaza side of the border in order to prevent such attacks, but Hamas uses rocket fire to defend its freedom of action.
Whether thinking tactically or strategically, Hamas continues to hold approximately one million Israelis living in the south hostage. Anti-missile defense systems like Iron Dome help limit the damage, but they can’t stop all or even most of the rockets, as the last two days showed. Hamas seems to be assuming that an Israeli counter-offensive into Gaza to silence the fire would be too bloody and too unpopular abroad to be worth it for Netanyahu. Another option would be to return to targeted killings of Hamas leaders, but that is likely to lead to more rockets fired at Israeli civilians rather than to stop the attacks.
The bottom line is that Israel has no good choices open to it with regard to Gaza. But with elections looming in January, Netanyahu can’t afford to let the people of the south sit in shelters indefinitely. If their Muslim Brotherhood friends in Egypt — who also worry about the spillover from a new war — can’t persuade Hamas to stand down soon, the prime minister may have to consider raising the ante with the Islamist terrorist movement. While the world is more interested in the violence in Syria, Gaza remains the more difficult dilemma facing the Israelis.
Is it possible that all the Gaza tunnels will lead to one giant sinkhole? one can only hope… n nWhat are the Druse who live on the Golan Heights doing?
Why they don't decapitate the Hamas regime is beyond me. Rinse and repeat as necessary. Quality of leadership will deteriorate and become less competent at targeting Israel. n nThen the whole thing can be dumped on Egypt, which must be forced to open its borders to the former Egyptians now called Palestinians. They can empty out into the Islamic paradise developing on the Nile, and carry on their impotent genocidal fantasies with the rest of the Egyptian population while they scratch around for cooking oil and pita bread. n n
Tobin, your comment on the current crisis in southern Israel is horribly meandering and contradictory. You say that Gaza is a reminder that Israel can't ignore enemies on its border yet you go on to rationalize essentially doing that because all other options are worse. I'm afraid you do so because whatever critical faculties you possess must be suppressed in order to rubber stamp whatever Bibi Netanyahu does or doesn't do. But Israeli governments whether they be labeled left-wing or right-wing have essentially ignored the daily rocket terror for 7 years, abandoning its 1 million citizens along southern border, who lack the political clout of the relatively well-to-do Israelis living in the Tel Aviv area. By failing to punish the Gazans for their daily aggression, Israel demonstrated impotence by repudiating its long-term policy of deterrence and preemption. Even worse it has conditioned any military response against the terrorists on winning "understanding" from the international community, thereby transforming a once sovereign Jewish state into a 19th century White Russian shtetl at the mercy of the Cossacks. For any Zionist the supine and cowering Israeli government only evokes shame and dismay.
Brilliant post.
Here is my suggestion. Today Netanyahu met with 100 foreign ambassadors. If those ambassadors truly oppose violence and want to help, I invite them to publicly take up residence in Ofakim, Beer Sheva, Netivot, Sderot, Ashkelon, and Ashdod in act of solidarity with the people of southern Israel. n nI invite them to be human shields. As an attack on them is an attack on their countries. Then we can discuss what should be done.
what is Bibi waiting for? what's the magic number? 160 rockets are not enough for an Israeli response. what would be? 161? 500? 3 million? n nit's easy for me to say, safe and comfy in the US and watching from afar, but I think Israel needs to tamp down Gaza right away. Cast Lead failed because it didn't finish the job. maybe it's time to reoccupy Gaza. most of the world thinks Israel's ALREADY occupying Gaza, so what've they got to lose?!
Well, It would not be difficult for Israel to do Gaza, as I would think most of it’s supporters and citizens are at wits end with it’s seeming procrastination of trhese matters. However, at the same time, it is apparent that Israel is being baited to roll into Gaza. That would give the pretext for Hizzbullah to start shooting it’s missiles, now suddenly Israel has a two front conflict with Iran’s puppets, with a third, Assad anxious to join in. Whose side will Turkey’s citizens be sympatetic towards? That is a rhetorical question.
If the U.N., leftist Americans, and 90% of Europe condemns your actions as a nation, you KNOW you must be doing something right!! Yeah, it will get ugly, but after our election, it's not like Israel is going to be getting any more support from us in the near future. The longer they wait, the harder it's going to be…
You are a maroon. If they wanted them destroyed, they already have ample justification for doing so. n nKeep your monstrous accusations, which likely reflect your own black heart, to yourself.
Something tells me that the Muslims in the ME don't want peace at all, in fact, just the opposite, they've stated they want to wipe Israel off the map, many times, in public. Why Israel doesn't give them the fight they desire, and end this thing once and for all, is what I can't understand. If people are willing to turn a blind eye to the barbarianism of Islam and make excuses for uncivilized behavior, then they will have to live with that stupidity, or die with it.
Damian, does Alan Acker Jones' family know that you are dragging his name thru the mud by displaying his name and picture on your crackpot conspiracy theory web site? And can you offer any 'proof' of your theories beyond citing yourself as an authority?
The majority of the worlds population except for a fraction that live in Israel and the United states are against this latest escalation by Israel on the Gaza strip and Palestinians in general. once again Israel is killing people who are struggling for their freedom and dignity against Israel who have imprisoned these people for years and deprived them of the freedoms that we in the west enjoy and take for granted. nIm a UK citizen and I am ashamed, as are the majority of the UK population (Who consistently recognize the plight of the Palestinians and the aggression that comes from the most powerful military in that area), that the UK government does not put out a firmer and stronger statement against Israeli aggression. nIsrael consistently breaks and does not adhere to UN rues.
The majority of the worlds population except for a fraction that live in Israel and the United states are against this latest escalation by Israel on the Gaza strip and Palestinians in general. once again Israel is killing people who are struggling for their freedom and dignity against Israel who have imprisoned these people for years and deprived them of the freedoms that we in the west enjoy and take for granted.