If Washington is serious about stopping Iran’s nuclear program, the report it really ought to pay attention to isn’t the International Atomic Energy Agency’s latest, important though its information on Iran’s progress is. Rather, it’s the one issued last week by Iran’s own Intelligence Ministry, which advocates diplomatic negotiations to avert the threat of a “Zionist” attack.
As Haaretz Arab affairs analyst Zvi Bar’el wrote, this report is noteworthy for several reasons. One is that Intelligence Minister Heydar Moslehi is close to Iran’s supreme leader and decision-maker, Ali Khamenei, who even forced President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to retain Moslehi when the president wanted to fire him last year. Another is that Khamenei posted the report on his own website and has shown it to Western leaders. In other words, there’s good reason to think this report reflects Khamenei’s own thinking.
That makes it worth paying attention to what it says–which is equally noteworthy. First, as Bar’el pointed out, the report advocates negotiations, not in response to economic sanctions, but due to the threat of military action. Second, this threat doesn’t come from America: The report doesn’t even mention the prospect of American military action, and in fact concludes that Washington doesn’t consider Iran’s nuclear program a threat. What concerns the ministry is the threat of Israeli military action.
Several conclusions follow from these points. First, just as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed all along, the only way it might be possible to get Iran to give up its nuclear program is via a credible military threat.
Second, despite President Barack Obama’s lip service about keeping the military option on the table and his cheerleaders’ insistence that he isn’t bluffing and really will take military action against Iran if necessary, the Iranians themselves don’t believe it–and they’re the ones who matter.
Third, despite the enormous effort the administration has invested in trying to deter Israeli military action against Iran, the Iranians still think Israel might defy Washington and attack, and they also believe Israel is capable of inflicting enough damage that they’ve decided adopting “a political-diplomatic policy” and exploiting “the potential of international organizations” is a “necessary course of action” to avoid it. That’s an enormous achievement for Netanyahu: He has kept the Israeli military option credible in Iranian eyes despite the administration’s best efforts to undermine it.
Finally, however, there’s no indication that Iran is willing to actually make concessions on its nuclear program, as opposed to merely engaging in empty negotiations for the sake of forestalling a military attack. And that fact (which should be a warning to anyone who embarks on negotiations with it) may well be related to the fact that the regime considers an Israeli attack damaging but survivable.
Thus, while I’m all in favor of tougher sanctions, like those Congress is now considering, what the Iranian report shows is that if Washington really wants to end Iran’s nuclear program, the thing it needs most is a credible military option. For only if Tehran felt threatened by America’s far superior military might it actually consider abandoning this program.
and the US, the world's pre-eminant military power, with military bases ringed around Iran and a carrier group or two in the neighborhood….doesn't pose a credible military threat despite repeated statements that any attempt by Iran to assemble military weapons will be unacceptible and be subject to US military action? n nperhaps Ms Gordon advocates dropping one or two small nuclear weapons on Iran as a gesture of our sincerity.
The possession of overwhelming military force is not an indication that it will be used by the possessor. That determination requires an understanding of your opponent. n nHamas does not worry that Israel will overrun Gaza, even with tanks, never mind nuke it to glass, because they know the Israelis simply will not do that, and so feel empowered to launch thousands of rockets into Israel. n nSimilarly, the USA was no less strong 6 years ago, when Iran was killing American soldiers with impunity in Iraq. Why did they not fear the USA then? n nAnd why do they not fear it now? n nI do not see a disconnect. Do you?
As Evelyn Gordon suggests, what matters is not America’s military might, but whether it intimidates the Iranians. It did not in Carter’s day when they took 52 US diplomats hostage and held them for 444 days. Today they regard President Obama no less as a wet noodle.
But they have reason to worry about Israel. Because her many hundreds of F-16s lack the range to strike Iran. Her 40 F-15s, are too few for a sustained long-range air campaign. And her deep penetration bombs cannot reach Iran’s A bomb facilities buried under a mountain.
That forces Israel to look to her several hundred highly accurate ballistic missiles tipped with nuclear warheads. Those alone can reach any Iranian target and can drill down into the most deeply embedded installation in a jack hammer manner. Those facilities could be turned to rubble at no or little cost in lives, by giving Iran 12 hour warning to evacuate her nuclear facilities. Israel has that ability and option.
It is a matter of Tehran’s judgment. Does it believe Jerusalem will choose to live with the Iranian death threat, or will Jerusalem prefer to eliminate the danger while she yet can? Is the vow, Never Again, a serious matter? Will the Jewish state prefer a future where its population centers live in constant danger of death without warning, to taking action which will arouse the world’s wrath? That the mullahs must mull.
At this point, only the outlined scenario might yet induce Tehran to forsake its nuclear weapon quest. Fear of economic sanctions, fear of Obama, his battle groups, and his unshakable language, won’t.
It is up to the Supreme Leader. Will he wager his legacy and his regime on Netanyahu’s failure to protect Israel’s safety and future?
● President Ahmadinejad: “Anybody who recognizes Israel will burn in the fire of the Islamic nation’s fury… Our dear Imam [Ruhollah Khomeini] ordered that this Jerusalem-occupying regime [Israel] must be erased from the page of time. This was a very wise statement… Soon this stain of disgrace will be cleaned from the garment of the world of Islam, and this is attainable.”
● Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei: “Iran’s position…is that the cancerous tumor called Israel must be uprooted from the region… the perpetual subject of Iran is the elimination of Israel from the region.”
● Former president Rafsanjani: “The employment of even one atomic bomb inside Israel will wipe it off the face of the earth, but would only do damage to the Islamic World. It is not unreasonable to consider this possibility.”
● Maj.-Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, former commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards: “With God’s help the time has come for the Zionist regime’s death sentence.”
● Maj.-Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari, commander of the Revolutionary Guards: “In the near future, we will witness the destruction of the cancerous microbe Israel.”
"Iran’s own Intelligence Ministry . . . advocates diplomatic negotiations to avert the threat of a 'Zionist' attack." n nClearly, common sense is no stranger to the Iranian mind, only, it would seem, to ours.
There is only one credible military option. That is the one that takes action NOW. Before it is too late. And if it is not too late NOW, then it will soon be late. If Reagan (or Carter) had taken action when Iran's first act of war was committed in 1979, we wouldn't have the mess we're in. And the tens of thousands of innocent dead as well.
There are zero sane logical reasons to consider discussing anything with Iran. They are lying genocidal fascists through and through. In fact sanctions should never be lifted even if they eventually force Iran to curtail their weapons program. They must be punished forever and ground down no matter what until the regime implodes.
We will see if Obama sends fawning New Year's and Ramadan Greetings to the 'Islamic Republic of Iran' this year, rather than the Iranian People. n nThe smart money says he will.
When what's really need is a cruise missile right down the chimney of the Iranian parliament.
Sorry my joke was not nuanced enough for the sophisticated geopolitical analyst demographic!
If Israel had overrun Gaza, thre would be no Hamas. n nIf Iranian diplomats give explosive devices to Iraqis to kill Americans, the Iranians are killing Americans, are they not? n nI hope if and when the time comes, our Preezy has the sack to do what is needed.
As Evelyn Gordon suggests, what matters is not the reality of America's military might, but whether it intimidates the Iranians. It did not in Carter's day when they took 52 US diplomats hostage and held them for 444 days. Today they regard President Obama no less as a wet noodle. n nBut they have reason to worry about Israel. Because her hundreds of F-16s lack the range to strike Iran. Her 40 F-15s, are too few for a sustained long-range air campaign. And her deep penetration bombs cannot reach facilities buried under a mountain. n nThat forces Israel to look to her several hundred highly accurate ballistic missiles tipped with nuclear warheads. Those alone can reach any Iranian target and can drill down into the most deeply embedded installation in a jack hammer manner. Those facilities could be turned to rubble at no or little cost in lives, by giving Iran 12 hour warning to evacuate her nuclear facilities. Israel has that ability and option. n nIt is a matter of Tehran's judgment. Does it believe Jerusalem will choose to live with the Iranian death threat or seek to eliminate the danger while that is still possible? Is Never Again, a serious vow? Will the Jewish state prefer a future where its population lives in constant danger of death without warning, to preemptive action which will arouse the world's wrath? That the mullahs must mull. n nAt this point, only the outlined scenario can yet induce Tehran to forsake its nuclear weapon quest. Fear of economic sanctions, fear of Obama, his battle groups, and his unshakable convictions, won't. n nIt is up to the Supreme Leader. Will he wager his legacy and his regime on the possibility that Netanyahu will not dare protect Israel's safety and future? n nu25cf President Ahmadinejad:"Our dear Imam [Ruhollah Khomeini] ordered that this Jerusalem -occupying regime [Israel] must be erased from the page of time. This was a very wise statement… Soon this stain of disgrace will be cleaned from the garment of the world of Islam, and this is attainable.” nu25cf Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei: “Iran’s position…is that the cancerous tumor called Israel must be uprooted from the region… the perpetual subject of Iran is the elimination of Israel from the region.” nu25cf Former president Rafsanjani: “The employment of even one atomic bomb inside Israel will wipe it off the face of the earth, but would only do damage to the Islamic World. It is not unreasonable to consider this possibility.” nu25cf Maj.-Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, former commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards: “With God’s help the time has come for the Zionist regime’s death sentence.” nu25cf Maj.-Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari, commander of the Revolutionary Guards: “In the near future, we will witness the destruction of the cancerous microbe Israel.”