With Israeli aircraft pounding selected targets in the Gaza Strip and Israeli troops preparing for a ground incursion, Operation Pillar of Defense, now three days old, is beginning to look a lot like Operation Cast Lead, the three-week war in the winter of 2008-2009 in which the Israel Defense Forces entered the Gaza Strip, demolished some Hamas infrastructure, and then left. That operation was a success in the limited but real sense that it brought some respite from rockets emanating from the Gaza Strip. But, as Daniel Byman notes at Foreign Affairs, “As the memory of Cast Lead faded, the number of attacks coming from Gaza began to rise once more. Israel claims that over 200 rockets struck the country in 2010. The number climbed to over 600 in 2011. And 2012 has seen even more — over 800 before the current operation began.”
Clearly that is an unsustainable state of affairs. No country could possibly tolerate its soil being attacked with rockets and not act militarily to defend its citizens. Those who criticize the Israeli action–already one hears the tired old accusations of “disproportionate response” (what would a proportionate response look like–lobbing random missiles into Gaza indiscriminately?)–have no better alternative to offer beyond sucking it up and living with terror raining down over the southern part of the country. But however justified and necessary, Operation Pillar of Defense is unlikely to achieve results much more lasting than those of Cast Lead. Hamas has shown it will not cease and desist from its attacks because of an occasional Israeli counteroffensive and it has shown that it can easily replace militant commanders such as Ahmed Jabari, killed in an Israeli air strike Wednesday.
The only thing that could possibly stop Hamas from regenerating after this current round of fighting is if Israeli troops stay in Gaza and maintain some degree of security, as they have done in the West Bank since Operation Defensive Shield dealt a major blow to the Second Intifada in 2002. Israel has been helped too by the emergence in the West Bank after Yasir Arafat’s death of more moderate leadership, especially Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Salam Fayyad. Unfortunately, neither a reoccupation nor the emergence of moderate leaders is likely in Gaza.
Ever since Israel pulled out of Gaza in 2005 under Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, it has had scant desire to return. No doubt Prime Minister Netanyahu is afraid of the international opprobrium–especially from the United States under the leadership of Barack Obama–that “reoccupation” of Gaza would bring. It could also bring major headaches by exposing Israeli troops to the kind of guerrilla attacks they faced in southern Lebanon before withdrawing in 2000. As for the possibility of a more “moderate” Hamas emerging–that seems even more farfetched. Hamas is and remains an organization dedicated to Israel’s eradication in a holy war.
The best that Israel can hope for is to reestablish a measure of deterrence and win a few years of relative quiet. The model, in many ways, is the Second Lebanon War in 2006, which was widely derided at the time as a fiasco but which convinced Hezbollah to refrain from attacking across Israel’s northern border. The years since have been remarkably quiet in the north. Although Hezbollah has rebuilt its strength and then some–it has seized effective control of the Lebanese government and stockpiled more than 50,000 missiles–it has shied away from fighting Israel. It is not, for example, taking advantage of Israel’s battle with Hamas to launch a second front in the north. The experience of 2006 suggests that even terrorist organizations animated by a martyrdom complex can be rational enough for deterrence to work. Israel must hope it can achieve similar results in the south.
Israel made the awful mistake of outlawing capital punishment from the very beginning of its existence. Adolph Eichmann was the only exception. Captured terrorists should be put to death if found guilty by a military court.
Population transfer. n nThere is no other solution. n nIt has workled throughout history, including in living memory. n nWhy is it off the table now? Because Jews would be the beneficiaries, for once, instead ofhte victims (Jews were always being forcibly expulsed throughout history, in both Europe, and recently, the mideast). n nI WW2, almost all of EUropean Jewry was forcibly transferred into the next world. n n nGazan Egyptians have shown themselves unwilling to live in peace. Therefore, they must be removed to a distance from those they would kill to the last man, woman, and child. n nSurely they would enjoy the Islamic paradise developing on the Nile . . . n n
I thought when Egypt controlled Gaza 1948-1967, Egypt used Gaza as a dumping ground for the MB militants. n nBetter solution is to have all of Egypt's Copts move and occupy the Sinai. Set up pig farms on the Gaza border. n nOk, there is no solution except to bomb the entire Gaza border and tow the new island into the Black Sea.
Or perhaps the North Sea so all the enlightened Europeans can enjoy the receiving end of the rocket.
Hello MainessMichael n nAfter and during WW2, it was a major shift of population to mach borders. It affected Germans, Poles, Czechs, Ukrainians and many others. But saying that, the decision was made by Big Boys (USA, Russia, Great Brittan) in Yalta and Potsdam and everybody else regardless there wishes were forced to comply. Where are Big Boys in the Middle East who willing to mediate and reinforce population moves?
As childish and immature as it may seem on the surface, perhaps a "one-for-one" response might be an appropriate in place policy… a sort of standing operating policy. Each rocket launched randomly into civilian (or otherwise) territory of Israel automatically triggers a rocket launch, also randomly, into Gaza. In effect, this puts the trigger that controls the incoming rockets into Gaza in Hamas hands. So in effect, whenever they would like to see a rocket headed in their direction, all they have to do is launch one of their own. They might eventually realize that they have the "trigger" that controls the amount of rockets they see coming in their own direction. Launch 400 rockets and expect to see 400 headed back.
Makes too much sense. Therefore it will never happen.
There has never been deterrence. No such thing when your opponent is unhinged. Arab culture is not bound to the standards of right and wrong winning and losing that we are. To them if they kill you it's a victory. If you kill them it's also a victory. They don't care what happens or who it happens to. Killing one of you is worth a hundred of them dead, a thousand. It is fanaticism embodied.
You only have deterrence when the other side is AFRAID to attack you. You only generate fear in the other side when the latter suffers a large number of deaths and widespread destruction. n n nIsrael has no choice but to KILL every hamas member and leader, every known terrorist; Israel must destroy whole neighborhoods in order to get every terrorist, and Israel must not worry about civilian casualties. n n nOnly in this event will the remaining civilian gazan population conclude that their focus must be turned away from Israel. n n nThis is the only solution – anything less will not work, and Israelis will continue to be killed, injured, and emotionally scarred. n n nI do not think that the Israeli government will undertake such steps, but I am confident that every other country, including the U.S. and all european countries, and every other people, on earth would indeed act in this way if they faced the same hardship that plagues Israel.
Japan had to bomb the US only once to provoke us into war. The US had a list of conditions that Japan had to accept for the war to end – no compromise or negotiation offered or allowed. Agree to the conditions or we'll keep attacking. The results speak for themselves. Japan has not been a threat since and they are now one of our most loyal allies. This should be the model for how Israel deals with Gaza.
Hello pfkga89 nIsrael doesn’t have only one enemy in the region to destroy and then the war is over. I think they are severely outnumbered. However, I would agree that every Israel response need to be more distractive to the terrorists and it needs to be widely advertised advanced. They fight for life and we only have a luxury supporting them.
It seems to be an overwhelming task for Israel.
Hello Max n nThere is no more complicated place in the world but Middle East. We got countries with no defined boundaries and not formed as nations. They all were created artificially in postcolonial era. They got tribes and tribal ties, different branches within Muslim religion, different social groups, and different cultural groups. We have people living in tribal era, post tribal era, feudal era, pre-capitalist era, capitalist era, socialist era. It all exists regardless official boarder separated them. So how do we solve it? Can we try to find the answer from history? It only took Europe 800 to 1000 years to solve it. Where we are now in Middle East within those 1000 years interval? nIn regard to Israel’s right to defend itself, there are not such a think as a disproportional response. We completely destroyed Germany and Japan during WW2 with napalm and carpet bombing to the total submission. Was it disproportional? nI am wondering what would we do if Mexico will start shooting rockets into our cities demanding Texas and Arizona? Would we just shooting back or mobilize and invade. I bet we will do second. n n