Israel’s Defense Forces have, by all accounts, performed well during Operation Pillar of Defense. In the wake of the massive bombardment of southern Israel by Hamas, the IDF carried out a deft targeted assassination of the head of the group’s military wing and carried out a wave of pinpoint bombings of terrorist missile caches and arms factories inside Gaza. The leadership of the terrorist movement that governs Gaza with an iron fist is cowering in the bunkers. Though there have been some unfortunate civilian casualties, they have been kept to a minimum despite the fact that Hamas has tried to hide its armaments and its personnel among noncombatants.
But these achievements should not obscure the fact that although Israel’s military is doing everything it can to suppress the missile fire, the terrorists have still managed to launch hundreds in the last two days, with a few even penetrating as far as the greater Tel Aviv area. Just as troubling is the heavy-duty diplomatic support the group has received from its regional allies Egypt and Turkey in addition to Russia’s refusal to join the West in supporting Israel’s right to self-defense.
Though the group has taken a pounding from the IDF, it may well have achieved the objectives it had in mind when it decided to use the aftermath of the U.S. presidential election to escalate the conflict with Israel. Whatever else has happened in the last week, Hamas has demonstrated the irrelevance of the Palestinian Authority and made clear that it, and not PA head Mahmoud Abbas and his Fatah party, is the face of Palestinian nationalism. By slamming hundreds of missiles in the last week into Israel it may have squandered part of the arsenal of more than 10,000 rockets it has amassed in the last four years and suffered a blow to its leadership. But it has also illustrated that the independent Palestinian state it has erected in Gaza is supported by the Arab and Muslim world and is, for all intents and purposes, invulnerable to international pressure or Israeli attacks. If that isn’t a victory for terrorism, I don’t know what else you could call it.
In comparing this conflict to the one Hamas provoked at the end of 2008 when Israel was forced to launch Operation Cast Lead to try to put an end to the battering of its southern region, it’s clear the IDF has learned from its mistakes. The stories about Israel slaughtering Palestinians in 2008 were false since the vast majority of the 1,400 Arabs killed in the conflict were armed fighters, not civilians. Nevertheless, even more care has been taken this time. Israel is also doing much better at getting its message about the necessity of self-defense out to the world via both conventional means and social media.
But it must be understood that Hamas is in a much stronger position than it was four years ago.
Rather than Hamas being isolated, as it was in 2008, the Islamist governments of Egypt and Turkey are now powerful supporters of the Gaza regime. The Egyptians are openly backing Hamas and even sending their prime minister to Gaza to express solidarity while the group’s missiles rain down on Israeli civilian targets. Rather than counting on foreign volunteers or Palestinian civilians to serve as human shields for its terrorist cadres, Hamas can now depend on high-ranking Egyptian officials to visit even while it is still shooting at Israel.
Hamas is also counting on the usual routine of international diplomacy to save them from the consequences of their aggression. Though the Obama administration, along with the West, is backing Israel’s right to self-defense, tolerance for Israeli counter-attacks is probably limited and it won’t be long before Washington joins Moscow in calling for a cease-fire that will rescue Hamas from having more of its leadership and its weaponry eliminated.
Hamas also knows that although Israel is calling up reserves and sending them to the border in an attempt to intimidate the group into ending the shooting, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reluctant to launch a ground attack that will result in more casualties on both sides. A ground operation might do much to increase the pain for Hamas and to alter the cost-benefit ratio of their offensive so much as to perhaps turn this victory into a defeat. But that would come at a steep price for Israel in terms of its already shaky diplomatic situation.
All this means that if a cease-fire is agreed to in the next few days without much more damage being inflicted on the group, Hamas will have won a not inconsiderable victory.
Despite the Iron Dome anti-rocket system touted by both Israel and the United States, Hamas has shown it can still inflict tremendous pain on the Jewish state and even threaten metropolitan Tel Aviv. Iron Dome has intercepted less than half of the projectiles launched against Israel and saved many lives, but it can’t get all of them.
Hamas’s diplomatic support, particularly from Egypt, has demonstrated that it is invulnerable to pressure from the United States or anyone else. Israelis have also been reminded that no matter how outrageous the provocations of its enemies, much of the world will still insist that the Jewish state is at fault any time it defends itself.
While a cessation of missile fire will be a relief if it happens in the coming days, neither Israel’s government nor its population or its foreign supporters should take any satisfaction from what has happened this week. Netanyahu had no choice but to respond to Hamas and to do what he could to maintain Israel’s deterrence. But what we are watching shows that when you have a terrorist state on your doorstep that the world will not allow you to depose, there are no good options available to you and little chance for a good outcome.
Those who seek to restrain Israel from eliminating Hamas are effectively seeking Israel's end. Israel must take the few days it has to inflict massive damage on Hamas, no matter how bad the "civilian" casualties on the Palestinian side. This is war and that is what happens when you launch one.
Jonathan may be right in asserting that Hamas is a winner whatever happens although it will not mean anything, but, in reality, the Palsetinians are the ultimate losers. Virtually no one in Israel will ever give up control of the so-called West Bank- Judea and Samaria- that would allow Palestinian rockets to hit all of Israel. Talk of peace will continue but no one- not even the Chosen One, President Obama- will be able to persuade Israelis that it is wise to give up ther so-called West Bank. israel will continue to grow and proliferatein Judea and Samaria and the Palestinians will continue to be in limbo.
Israel should cut off all the services they provide to Gaza. Let the heroic heroes of Hamas work out the details of how to keep the lights on and the toilets flushing. I bet after a few months of living like they're in an African refugee camp Hamas will look less like 'winners' than they do now.
The reason why Hamas wins by losing is buried in your piece, Jonathan. n nThe very success of 'pinpoint' targeting of bad guys and weapons caches means there is little if any price paid by the gazan population for hosting the bad guys – and even joining or helping them. n nRemember a uniformed soldiery was developed to protect civilians. By hiding among civilians, Hamas goes back to the most ancient type of warfare that was far too costly for later more enlightened populations to tolerate. n nBy giving them a pass, and 'pinpointing' the responses, we ensure that this type of warfare can and will continue forever, for the population does not pay a price or force the combatants out into the open where they can be fought and thoroughly defeated. n nNow, I understand that the 'world' will not tolerate this sort of self defense by Israel the way it tolerates it from other nations since forever. Indeed, not only do they tolerate self defense by other nations, but accept intentional offense against civilians (of which Syria is the example of the moment, Sudan very recently). n nSo, really, Israel has to ignore 'world ' opinion, because if it were up to 'world' opinion, there would be no Israel. n nIt is also worth noting that 'world' opinion is by and large the aggregate opinion of non democratic rulers. Most people of the 'world', unless they are British, Dutch, Scandinavian or German busybodies colored by anti-semitism, care little at all about Israel and its arab enemies, being more rightly concerned with feeding their families and trying to survive in their own personal hellholes.
Tobin is right to suggest that Hamas is once again on the way to victory and Israel to defeat, much as Hizbollah was viewed as the victor in the 2006 Lebanon War despite considerable losses in material and manpower. Anytime Arabs fight Israel and inflict even minimal casualties upon her without suffering outright surrender or catastrophic losses in human life the Arab street knows they have scored a major victory. But because of this radically different Arab calculus, Tobin is absolutely wrong in praising the IDF for minimizing casualties in Gaza. Essentially what Barak has been doing – and he is an old hand at this – is bombing empty buildings and structures knowing that no one is in them. As we all know the IDF is the only army in the world that also warns its enemies that a bombing raid is underway. The persistent unwillingness of the Israeli leadership to really destroy the enemy both materially and bodily because of fear of the EU, UN, Hussein Obama and the western media machine objectively means that it prefers its own citizens to die and not the terrorist-supporting Gazans who are shielded by "world opinion" (read anti-Semitism). Certainly, Commentary shouldn't be among those rationalizing such a disastrous strategy, which only emboldens terrorists and promises an even more violent and bloody confrontation the next time around. At least say that Bibi show some real courage and turn off electricity and water to the Gazans for 24 hours. Gee, even New Yorkers in the latest hurricane suffered more than that!
If Jonathan is correct, and I think he's only partially so, the reality is that Israel will have to inflict massive damage to Hamas and show Hamas, as well as Egypt and Turkey and whoever else, that Israel cannot be tormented and attacked repeatedly without consequences. That Hamas has some sympathy within the international community only shows just how wrongheaded and unprincipled is that same community. n nShould Russia be similarly harassed and bombarded, Mr. Putin would respond viciously and without remorse or mercy. The United States would respond quickly and definitively to any such attacks as well, the international community be damned. Look at our drone attacks in Pakistan; the U.S. strikes in foreign countries at will. n nWhat we are seeing is the hatred of Egypt and Turkey to Israel as displayed by their proxy Hamas. Israel should not think twice about a crushing response and a clear message to her neighbors: No tolerance for bombs, no tolerance for terror, and no tolerance for badly place international opinions.
Tobin is right in only one respect, but an important one. n nIron Dome, at least so far, is not the solution it was touted as being. Israel is not impervious to a rain of cheap but deadly missiles from Gaza or the North. Establishing that fact may have been the principal purpose of Hamas. And that it has achieved. Hamas retains the power to torment Israel at will with its ample and inexpensive arsenal. n nWhich does not mean Israel cannot deepen and widen its anti missile defenses and bring other approaches to the problem, and succeed. It will. But for the moment it lacks a reliable shield, and is not safe.
Israel absorbed a barrage of criticism, internally and externally, during and immediately after the Lebanon war, But this was soon old news. Except that Hezbollah was neutralized and its proxy was was eliminated. I do not see why this cannot be repeated in Gaza. Hit them hard enough and they will be reluctant to start another fight.
Unless Hamas is destroyed this will be a waste on both sides. Same with the Hezbollah. nThe world of the absurd allows fanatic Muslim to bombard IL with impunity and the the NYT, WaPo and Guardian accuse the victim for defending herself.