Commentary Magazine


Contentions

Missile Defense Stands Up to Scrutiny

It is amazing the controversy that missile defense continues to arouse nearly 30 years after Ronald Reagan gave his famous “Star Wars” speech. Yesterday I posted an item saying that Reagan’s vision of intercepting missiles had been vindicated by the success that Israel’s Iron Dome system is having in knocking down Hamas rockets–some 300 so far. This sparked much indignation on Twitter and the blogosphere, with a graduate student named Matt Fay writing an entire blog item in reply arguing “Iron Dome Does Not Vindicate SDI,” and political scientist/blogger Robert Farley posting numerous tweets in a similar vein. They attack me for one alleged factual error and for a larger conceptual error of equating defense against Russian ICBMs, which have a range of thousands of miles, with defense against short-range Hamas rockets which can travel no more than 50 miles and often less. Let me explain in brief why I stand by my original point.

First, the supposed factual error is more an omission than a mistake. I wrote that “the U.S. West Coast is actually protected by a limited ballistic-missile defense system based primarily around satellites, sea-based Aegis and X-band radars, and Standard Missile-3 interceptors.” Fay points out I neglected to mention the ground-based interceptors located in Alaska and California. Fair enough; I should have mentioned them. But the first line of defense against missiles aimed at the U.S. remains warships equipped with Aegis radar and Standard Missile 3′s–as a quick glance at the website of the US Missile Defense Agency will confirm. In the future a new generation of SM-3′s will also be based ashore in the U.S. If North Korea were to launch a missile our way, an Aegis-equipped Navy ship would be more likely to shoot it down than one of the ground-based interceptors in the continental U.S. But they are all part of a larger system with redundancy built in to increase the chances of a successful interception.

What about my supposed error in equating rocket defense with missile defense? Granted there are major differences between the two–missiles travel farther and faster and they can have multiple warheads and various defenses against interception. But the fact that missiles take time to prepare for launch, that they have to come from launching platforms easily observable from the air, and that they are often in flight for many minutes–roughly half an hour to get from Russia to the U.S.–actually improves the chances of interception. By contrast Qassam rockets can be set up with no notice and detonate 30 seconds after launch. The fact that the Iron Dome system has been 90 percent successful, if initial reports are to be believed, is actually quite impressive and does vindicate Reagan’s much-mocked vision of using one projectile to intercept another.

Some critics point out that even a 90-percent success rate for national missile defense wouldn’t do much good, because letting even one nuclear-tipped missile through could be devastating. True enough, but, Reagan’s sometimes grandiose rhetoric aside about “eliminating the threat posed by strategic nuclear missiles,” even markedly reducing that threat would be of great benefit. In the days of the Cold War, the Soviets plotted to launch a devastating first strike on the U.S. But if a defense system had knocked down many of their attacking missiles, that would have preserved America’s ability to launch an even more devastating counter-strike. Thus if missile defense had been in place in those days it could have improved deterrence and reduced the risk of a nuclear attack. Today missile defense can achieve more limited, but just as valuable, objectives by preventing North Korea, Iran and other rogue states from threatening their neighbors and their neighbors’ ally, the United States.

I remain puzzled by the emotional response generated by any advocacy of missile defense. Why do so many critics have such an investment in trying to prove that missile defense doesn’t work? Isn’t a good defense the best way to keep the peace?

Introducing Commentary Complete

3 Responses to “Missile Defense Stands Up to Scrutiny”

  1. Patrick says:

    It's because they hate Jews, Period.

  2. GFK67 says:

    The criticism of missile defense by the critics, the Pugwash/Federation of Concerned Scientists and their friends, is a longstanding feature of the anti-military left. Go look at the furor during the build-up to the ABM Treaty in the late 1960's (the Soviets sought the treaty because they wanted to slow/control the US ABM programs which they saw as well-advanced over their own). These folks do not hate missile defense, just American (and now Israeli) missile defense. They never said a word about the massive, multi-decadal, Soviet missile defense programs. They say nothing today about the continuance of those efforts, nor about Chinese ABM and ASAT efforts. Nor do they say anything about Iranian importation of dual capable Russian AAW missile systems that have an inherent ABM capability. n nI agree completely that it seems a no-brainer that enhanced defenses, such as those implied by effective ABM systems, should be easy to support. Defenses do not threaten anything except those systems/forces that would attack us. It would seem that those who oppose such systems, i.e., who oppose us defending ourselves against an active attack, should be exposed to the criticism they deserve–at the least, they are arguing that it is somehow unreasonable that we should be able to protect our citizens. Seemingly a hard sell, no? But the issue never seems to appear in our lovely press in such a stark manner. Somehow those of us who have been working to provide such defenses are accused of all sorts of nasty and immoral actions/motives. n nI remember reading interviews with ex-Soviet General Officers after the Cold War's "end," in which they noted that it was (in their view) immoral NOT to do everything possible in mounting defenses, even were they to be imperfect–they were explicitly talking in the context of potential nuclear war. Obviously there are resource limits, thus the "imperfect" defenses, but even imperfect defenses raise the level of uncertainty for the attacker, thus increasing the overall deterrent.

  3. BreadAlone says:

    Missile defense is one of those ideas that is thoroughly conservative in conception and that will for the foreseeable future be associated with conservatives–as such it is an idea that will be denounced passionately, even if there is not a legitimate case against it. The concept of missile defense and the commitment of conservatives to it likewise shows the greater and utmost commitment of conservatives to the greater cause, defense of the homeland and our interests abroad. Barring some unpleasant statements like those given by Herman Cain in interviews, the Republican presidential primary this last election cycle was actually a pleasant thing to behold, as it displayed in which party true sensibility about such matters lies. (That said, the party is quite far from perfect even if Herman Cain and like are discounted. And what good is foreign policy sensibility when there is no COURAGEOUS advocacy come the real campaign?)

Leave a Reply