The headlines in the left-wing Israeli daily Haaretz summed up the reaction of opponents of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the latest twist in the lead-up to the country’s January Knesset elections. The consensus on the left is that the victory of right-wing candidates in the Likud’s primary to determine their Knesset slate spells doom for the PM. “Has the Likud gone too far right for Netanyahu?” was one. “Likud’s sharp shift to the right is political suicide for Netanyahu” was another, while a third read “Likud’s hawkish earthquake sparks new hopes for centrist alternatives.” Combined with the other major story in Israeli politics today — the return to electoral politics of former foreign minister Tzipi Livni, who is leading a new party called “The Movement” — you might think that Netanyahu’s critics are right to assert that he is in big trouble.
But despite the hoopla over Livni and the worries about the changing of the guard in Likud, Israel’s electoral math appears unchanged. Netanyahu and his newly enlarged Likud and its coalition partners remain on course to win a smashing victory next month.
The Likud primary resulted in some well-known figures in the party being booted from “safe slots” on its electoral roster (since the party is only expected to get in the vicinity of 40 seats, any candidate on the party list–whose order is determined by the voters–below that number isn’t going to get elected). That means veterans like Dan Meridor and Benny Begin, the son of Menachem Begin, won’t be back in the Knesset next year. This is because a new movement of younger and more right-wing candidates finished ahead of them. In particular, Moshe Feiglin, a nationalist gadfly who has been trying to take over the Likud from the inside for years, will for the first time gain a seat.
This will, as the Likud-bashers at Haaretz rightly point out, make the party’s parliamentary delegation much less moderate and more likely to make Netanyahu’s life hell as he attempts to keep relations with the Obama administration from collapsing. But the expectation that this will cost Netanyahu the election is merely the wish being father to the thought for his left-wing critics. This may cost Likud some centrist votes, which will go to Yair Lapid’s new party, or Livni or what is left of Kadima. But it could be offset by the votes picked up at the expense of the parties to Likud’s right.
It should also be understood that the driving force in any Knesset election is the person at the top of the ticket, not the one in the number 30 spot. Netanyahu remains the only credible candidate for prime minister in the field, and that is something that no primary will alter.
Even more important is the fact that Livni’s entry into the field will only further splinter the opposition to Netanyahu. Though she hopes to win Likud voters, her platform seems to center on two things only: her personal appeal and her belief that Netanyahu hasn’t done enough to further the peace process. Given her disastrous defeat at the hands of a lackluster rival like Shaul Mofaz in the Kadima primary last year, the idea that the public is clamoring for her doesn’t seem likely. The latest outbreak of fighting with Hamas in Gaza has only increased the perception among most Israelis that the peace process is dead. The Labor Party, which is likely to finish a distant second next month to Likud, has completely abandoned this issue and with good reason. It is hard to see how any candidate can win on such a platform. Nor, as Seth pointed out earlier today, is she likely to score points by trying simultaneously to run to Netanyahu’s right.
As the Times of Israel’s Raphael Ahren points out, Israeli politics remains divided between two camps. On the one hand there is Netanyahu’s Likud and its right-wing and religious allies that form the current government. On the other is the so-called center-left as well as the anti-Zionist Arab parties. According to all the polls, the former’s strength should net them anywhere from 66 to 70 seats out of the 120 in the Knesset. The latter can’t seem to do better than 50-54.
This means that it doesn’t really matter whether Labor’s Shelly Yachimovich or Livni or Lapid or some other outlier emerges from the wreckage of the Israeli center-left after the next election as the head of the opposition. As Ahren says, it would take an “earthquake” or some completely unforeseen event to shake the country’s electoral math. Though the Haaretz pundits and American liberals who despise Netanyahu and reject the Israeli consensus about peace are hoping that Livni or someone else will pull an upset, the prime minister remains on cruise control. His next term will probably be stormy and his party will give him plenty of headaches. But so long as most Israelis agree with his stands on the Palestinians and Iran, and understand that his steady hand on the country’s economic rudder is exactly what is needed, the Likud’s hold on office is not in question.
While Tobin is right that the left has no realistic chance of unseating Bibi's Likud-led coalition, unsurprisingly he glosses over the significance of the Likud primary results that have significantly strengthened the nationalist forces while sweeping away or at least undermining many of Bibi's closest cronies. Most importantly, religious nationalist Moshe Feiglin received more than twice as many votes than in the last primary when he would have obtained a seat had Bibi not engaged in party rule changes to assign his seat to a woman candidate. This time he even received far more votes than Yuval Steinitz, the Finance Minister and probably Bibi's strongest ally in Likud. MK Dani Danon, another fierce Bibi critic, received the fifth highest number of votes, testifying to the deep disappointment with Bibi and his handling of the recent Gaza conflict among Likud rank and file. Bibi is clearly dissatisfied with the results, but his hope may be that the Likud- Israel Beyteinu slate does badly in January and requires additional support form the left to form a government, perhaps from Yair Lapid's new party. After all, rather than accept support from the right-wing National Union Party after the last section, Bibi invited the leftist Peace Now sympathizer Ehud Barak to join his government, and the results of that choice were evident last week after the inconclusive cease-fire that helped gain Hamas new won friends and prestige.
gosh , now we have psychologists on this website..how do you know what bibi thinks? Maybe he is- on the contrary- very happy with the results? It will give him cover if this present administration tries to put pressure on him.The basic fact is that Bibi has been pretty steadfast in his beliefs for many years. Even the speech he gave accepting the two state solution came with many conditions- which he knew Abbas would reject. The fact is that he -unlike Sharon ,who did a volte face- has tried his darnedest to juggle pressure from abroad and internal pressure to keep Israel safe. Let's see what he wil do about Iran before burying his political career.
As an admittedly parochial observer of Israeli electoral politics, it would seem to me the old saying still holds, and is pretty universal: You can't beat somebody with nobody. I can't imagine any of the other candidates are up to effectively facing the challenges ahead for Israel. That's a pretty big deal for a voter.
Just a correction: this is a complete nonsense to include the Arab parties in the left-center block. They never were and never will be together in the same coalition. The closest ever was during the Oslo years when the Arab parties, who were smaller and more moderate, supported the minority government of Yitzhak Rabin from the outside. It won't happen again. nSo the center-left is in fact around 40 seats with no hope to win at all and a demographic situation that will only get worse for them (the people who make children are the people who don't vote for them). Exactly like the GOP.
Anyone who is still calling Netanyahu "right-wing" must have been living in a cave the last few years. Freezing settlement construction, signing on to the "two-state solution" and destruction of communities in Yesha don't fit the description. If in fact "right-wing" Bibi has been outflanked by true nationalists in the Likud, he still has the Sharon option – form a new party. Don't be surprised if he does.
the freezing of settlement buidling did not encompass jerusalem at all or any of ther existing settlements. Only brand new ones were included-and this is why the US government was so frustrated-thank G-d! We have to go back a long time- maybe pre-oslo- when may new so-called settements were being built. i wish they would do that now but you cannot leave this at Bibi-s feet- he didn't start this at all! The ""two-state solution" has been ingrained in the body politic for three decades, Bibi just put his imprimatur on it- albeit with some serious conditions which he knew the Palestinians would reject. Don't accuse Bibi of not being 'right wing' enough. it is the Likud-which, by the way,is a coalition and encompassed some very dovish people- that has drited to the center. So, if you want a "real' right wing party- vote Habyat hajehudi- the party of the settlers!
actually, it was the courts that ordered destruction of certain communities in Judea-Samaria. Bibi & his allies could not stop them legally.
What is strangely fascinating is that American pundits are trying to interfere with Israeli politics, but they still fail to notice the changes in the Israeli voter demographics. n nDanon and Ayalon are the future
.
Next to the weird spell cast by Obama over the American people comes the lame excuses and rationales offered by the hopelessly duped fans of BB.
Can you tell me what Bibi has done that provokes your ire? The country is at peace, has just struck at hamas and repelled its terrorists,shown that the iron Dome defense works, Jerusalem and Judea and Samaia continue to see growth….yes, I know, Bibi isn't perfect…and who knows how long the ceasefire will last….well, no one this side of the Almighty is.
Danon's father immigrated from Egypt as a child, assuming with his family, in the early 1950's. nI think the Israeli term is Mizrahi, although one assumes mostly Sephardic in ritual. n nI only saw Danon once – with Rick Perry at a news conference in Manhattan, which got news coverage because it was two or three days before Obama was addressing the opening of the UN GA. (what Perry said influenced Obama's speech) n nMy point, ever since Netanyahu became PM again, is that Likud IS the center in Israeli politics, because of the demographics. I do get attacked for noticing this, and never followed Israeli politics until 2008 (fresh set of eyes). n nIt's not just the Mizrahi and their descendants, but the former Soviet Union. Just like the immigrants to the USA from the former Soviet Union, they instinctively mistrust the left.
The likud has been at the center since it became the Likud. It was put together (by Arik Sharon) from three parties, it included the herut (right), Liberals (center right) and various small left of center parties. "Gahal" itself was formed by Herut and the Liberals. So, Likud,in contrast to herut, was actually already a center right party from its inception.Because Menachem begin and Shamir were its foremost leaders, it was assumed to be an extreme right party. Not true at all. So, bibi had nothing to do with it!_It is actually very beneficial that the trend in israel- for some time now- has gone rightwards, because of the Russian jews, the "Mizrachim" and the religious zionists (settlers). Danon is one of its tising stars. Obviously, the left and the press here in the US or israel loves to depict the Likud as extreme right. not true at all. This is why Bibi will win comfortably in january. Kadima (now virtually defunct) was just an offshoot of LIkud that Sharon, the ultimate ppragmatist, formed as his own vehicle.
Many Americans still want to know:r nr n(l) Did the President issue an order that everything possible be done to save the lives of these four Americans; and, if so, when did he do it?r nr n(2) If the President issued this order, who in his Administration countermanded his order by issuing a stand-down order?r nr nUntil we know the answers to these questions, we cannot stop asking them. The four Americans that died deserve far more. The buck stops with the President — not with Under Secretaries (or the Secretary) of the State Department.