It is hardly surprising to read that the flow of Iranian arms continues to reach Syria via Iraqi airspace. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki had promised the Obama administration that he would inspect aircraft overflying his country, but his promise has proved hollow. As the New York Times reports:
The Iraqis have inspected only two [flights], most recently on Oct. 27. No weapons were found, but one of the two planes that landed in Iraq for inspection was on its way back to Iran after delivering its cargo in Syria.
Adding to the United States’ frustrations, Iran appears to have been tipped off by Iraqi officials as to when inspections would be conducted, American officials say, citing classified reports by American intelligence analysts.
One can only wonder how the situation would have been different if the Obama administration had made a serious effort to continue an American military presence in Iraq post-2011. If a Status of Forces Agreement had been negotiated, Iraqi airspace would now be patrolled by the U.S. Air Force–and the Iranian Quds Force would lose a main route for arming its Syrian allies. Bashar Assad might well have fallen already if that were the case, and thousands of Syrian lives might have been saved.
The outcome might also have been different if the Obama administration had been more engaged after the 2010 Iraqi election in pushing to form a government led by Ayad Allawi, a secular Shiite with heavy Sunni backing whose party was the top vote-getter. It is hard to imagine Allawi cooperating with the Iranians to prop up Assad the way Maliki has. Yet the administration and its ambassador in Baghdad, Chris Hill, took a destructive hands-off attitude that allowed the Iranians to assemble a pliant coalition led by Maliki.
In short, this is the price of American disengagement from Iraq–part of it anyway, since the price also includes the revival of al-Qaeda in Iraq and the ratcheting up of sectarian tensions in Iraq, which could yet result in an armed clash with the Kurds. Iraq’s experience once again shows that ending a “war” on our terms is not so simple as pulling out the troops. Indeed, pulling out the troops may well lead to a bigger war–not only in Iraq, it turns out, but in Syria as well. That is a lesson that those who advocate an immediate American pullout from Afghanistan–including the Times editorial board–would do well to keep in mind.
Mr. Boot, n nThe US failure to establish a long-term military presence in Iraq is result of many ill-considered US policies and actions towards the Iraqi body politic from the declaration of formal occupation in 2003 forwards. n nNot least of these was the decision to install a US-selected interim government headed by Ayad Allawi in 2004. This unpopular government was soundly defeated in Iraq's free election of 2005. n nDr. Allawi's campaign in 2010 united a less-than-a-third plurality of Iraqis opposed to the majority Shia-Kurd alliance. Because of this campaign it was impossible for his party to form a government and nothing the US could say or do (short of renewed military intervention) would have altered this political reality. n nRegarding weapons flows into Syria, it might be worth considering the limited success of the US in interdicting weapons during its time in control of Iraq's borders. It is unreasonable to hold an Iraqi government of much more limited resources to a higher standard than that to which we hold ourselves. n nFrancis Brooke
Hello Mr. Boot n nYou are the great historian and your books are very insightful and deep in content. I am following your posts and find them provocative, controversial, and extremely informative. So let me get it straight. We occupied Iraq under false pretenses. They never like us there. We didn’t install our guy over there. Shia majority and Muslim county elected shia majority and Muslim government. The government is collaborated with another Shia majority county Iran. What a shocker? We also left the country because our presents were very unpopular in USA and Iraq. We also didn’t leave any FCC office in place. It would monitor cargo in and out of the country, which would eventually lead to fall of Assad regime in Syria. And now you are suggesting that we need be more thoughtful in Afghanistan because all of that. Can we just leave the region? We don’t belong there. The only thing unites them is a hate toward us as common enemy. Let’s monitor them closely and intervene when we need it as a cop on the street to serve warrant without cop moving into the bad neighborhood. n