President Obama got the best of both worlds with the passage of the deal to prevent the country from going over the fiscal cliff. He got the massive tax hike on wealthier Americans that he wanted and paid for it with no spending cuts. Though he acted throughout the crisis as if he might prefer the political advantage that he would gain by a Republican refusal to pass these measures, the avoidance of the cliff prevents the economy from going into a tailspin that would blight his second term. And he accomplished all this while making Republicans looking bad with the passage of the compromise being accomplished despite overwhelming opposition from the House majority caucus.
But the president’s claim that he wouldn’t have another debate with Republicans about taxes and spending in the future was a hollow challenge. House Speaker John Boehner and other Republicans who voted for the unsatisfactory package and ensured its passage knew that the alternative was a devastating tax hike for all Americans that would harm the economy and hurt their party for years to come. Though liberals have often claimed that it was the GOP and its Tea Party faction that was holding the nation hostage, this time it was the Democrats who were the ones with a gun to the heads of the nation. It was either vote for a tax increase for some and no spending cuts or see middle class America pay a terrible price. These circumstances won’t apply in the coming months when the debt ceiling and other budgetary measures must be passed. Though the cliff bill was a win for the president, he isn’t likely to have one like this again.
Before leaving the White House to continue his Hawaii vacation, the president spoke on Tuesday night as if the House vote settled for all time the question of whether he would have to deal with Republican objections to his decidedly unbalanced approach to balancing the budget.
Far from silencing the Republicans, this debate will ensure that the House majority will be even more determined in the future to oppose the tax increases that the president has said he will push for in the future. Nor will they allow him to get anything passed without addressing the one thing that he has refused to contemplate in any serious manner: entitlement reform. He also won’t be able to count on dividing the GOP caucus as he did this time, as Speaker Boehner’s desire to do the right thing by the country estranged him from not only the Tea Partiers but much of his own leadership team. If there’s anything Obama should expect it is that this is the last time Boehner will allow House Majority Leader Eric Cantor to outflank him with most Republicans siding with him against the speaker.
That means this is also probably the last time there will be enough votes to raise taxes on anybody, especially with nothing being done about the spending problem that is at the heart of the nation’s fiscal ills.
President Obama should enjoy his victory on his plane ride to his island holiday. No amount of presidential bluster or bravado will be enough to get him another like it over the course of the coming years.
Maybe when Americans see their taxes go up, as with the payroll tax and Obamacare taxes, as well as seeing the economy continue to lose ground, maybe, just maybe they will see they were wrong to vote for BHO. I won't hold my breath since MSM control the message and Republicans won't get aggrressive in getting their message out. Really, the Republican voices are almost whimpy-like, how can any American respect them? Where are they? Why do they allow BHO to be more vocal than they are? People are giving up on them.
I concur with you on one critical point. The "whimpishness' of the Republicans. Boehner is a wonderful person but absolutely the wron guy to take on Obama. Too quite, too polite, too soft. Imagine how a Gingrich would have reacted or a Giuliani. One has to parry and answer Obama's arrogance with constant attacks. In this world of one-liners, small speech bites, constant TV, the only way to counter the MSM's bias and influence is to attack, attack. i would advise any American politician to read (and listen) to the exchanges in the House of Commons to see how one can skewer an opponent while still keeping the disucssion civil.
Good lord, the payroll tax should go back up. The 2% cut was supposed to be a temporary holiday from this universal tax that funds Social Security as part of an economic stimulus package at a time of deepening recession. Failure to put this tax back where it was would only increase future pressure to jack up income tax rates. Conservatives have spent the last four years complaining that 40 percent of earners pay no income taxes, a legitimate gripe. At least all those people can chip in 6% to help pay for their own Social Security.
I agree 100%. Obama has surrendered his leverage by allowing most of the Bush tax cuts to become permanent (while those making more than $450k per year will surely be clever enough to take care of themselves). The issue going forward is soley centered on our nartion's debt. The Republicans now hold the high ground and should immediately focus like a laser on all the wasteful and unnecessary spending, and its adverse impact on the nation's future. This will set the stage for a showdown over the debt ceiling, at which point the Republicans will have the leverage advantage. Since the Republicans will surely hold the House… and will likely gain the Senate in 2014, Obama is already a lame duck. Happy New Year.
Sadly, I think he will simply do a reprise of this charade, with default being the sword he holds over the GOP. He will make minimal concessions in negotiations, he will drag out the negotiations until the last possible moment, and then make it a choice between another bad deal and default, with the media aiding and abetting him. After all, it worked beautifully this time and he will have more Dems in both House and Senate. Not to mention a thoroughly demoralized Republican Party.
Make that "inherited leverage," jane. Our mastermind president inherited that advantage from GWB and did not create it from the strength of an economic argument. He didn't build that. n nIn any case, let's be glad it's gone, but remember to give credit where credit is due, to President Bush 43.
So you are stating our last president insisted that the tax cuts he championed be set to expire in 2010?
I am assuming the leverage being discussed is the threat of dramatic tax increases on everyone because of the expiration. Not being a Congressional historian I cannot say whether it was the threat of Democrat Party filibuster or Republican Party congressional leadership displeasure with lower taxes which gave birth to the date certain expiration but I am quite sure it wasn’t George W. Bushes idea.
Hope you’re not to disappointed the leverage wasn’t GWB’s fault.
About $200/month more in payroll taxes for ordinary households. The news media is crowing about how great it is that 'rich' people are getting screwed so that not one dime in expenses can be cut. I think we're done here. This is the death knell for the middle class and it's not a rhetorical point to say that between this and Obamacare they've squeezed every last dime out of us. We can no longer afford to live here. We can either go on the dole or emigrate.
Mr. Tobin, "…the heart of the nation’s fiscal ills…" is as much about lost jobs than spending. n nStop angging about entitlements. The GOP needs to remind everyone about JOBS, especially fracking jobs, and look at the Regulatory Avalanche as the real battle for 2013. n nI sense it is now obvious to many dems and their pundits that Obama and Reid ARE the problem. It took Biden and McConnell to break the deadlock beofre the rest of the world had more time to watch our failed Federal government in inaction. n nBetter hope Bill Clinton has the sense to hammer Obama into nominating Erskine Bowles or Sheila Bair as SecTreas.
For the life of me, I don't see why the House can't make reversing the tax rate increases that did happen a condition for raising the debt ceiling. n nAnd note the article's title: This MAY be Obama's last victory. Never underestimate the GOP's ability to cave, especially after last night.
Well, Obama's opening statement regarding the debt ceiling is ~: Congress should increase the debt limit to pay for bills they've already passed. " You're right Mr. President. We can't keep raising the debt limit to service our previous bills. So today we make a stand."____I also think, once folks get their checks and see 2% less (albeit from SS hike) that they may take a different look at spending. In the grand scheme of things, if 2% is going to create chaos with your personal budget, what will happen when it's 5-10% that will be needed from the middle class to pay for things in the future.____In the next two months, every day, every nite and on every channel, R's need to be out there explaining how Obama got his "rich" tax and now that it's passed, here's Revenues minus Expenses and here's the new deficit. What's Obama's plan now?
From Tobin's post: "House Speaker John Boehner and other Republicans who voted for the unsatisfactory package and ensured its passage knew that the alternative was a devastating tax hike for all Americans that would harm the economy and hurt their party for years to come." n nAnd refusing to raise the debt ceiling would not harm the economy and hurt their party for years to come? The GOP has the same leverage on the debt ceiling as the fiscal cliff. None. GOP threats right now carry the same weight as those of Snidely Whiplash and Wile E. Coyote.
The issue is whether the ride toward collectivism proceeds apace or whether Americans put their foot down and defend capitalism straight up. The culture wars are involved, for nothing less than the individual’s right to stand up for herself and to confront authority is at stake. See http://clarespark.com/2013/01/02/index-to-blogs-on-culture-wars/.
People like Tobin are mainstream pundits who have to play inside the lines to assure their careers. Thus the harsh realities of Obama's reign are out of bounds. Nevertheless, Obama's course is clear. He and his minions are well on their way to turn our great country on its ear.
I have to agree, however…Boehner may not have choices if he is booted out. But, it is time that this game is called and never played again. The one thing I do not understand is why the Republicans continue to allow the hateful Pelosi and Reid to have anything to do with negotiations within the GOP and don't tell me they don't….they have been involved every single time negotiations have taken place on many issues….perhaps John is a "good" guy but I sincerely hope he carries a large can of vaseline with him when he has discussions with the progs!
Based on many of the comments here I have only one questions: WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DO ABOUT THIS MESS WE'RE IN? We are on the verge (perhaps 20 years) of losing America as we know it and our basic freedoms and strangled by huge taxes. What to do? What to do? We need to stop whining and get something done within our own circle…2014 is right around the corner and thankfully, we can change it bit by bit every two years….but with the GOP? No!
" Though the cliff bill was a win for the president, he isn’t likely to have one like this again." Don't underestimate the ineptness and cowardice of the Republicans who hold the power in the House. Even if John Boehner is removed as Speaker who will champion conservatism and be able to explain and defend it in the public forum? Until the Republican Party finds a spokesman like Newt Gingrich or Ronald Reagan it will continue losing all its battles in the fog of war that Obama is waging against them. They don't even realize that they are in a war!!!