It’s certainly true that negotiations over how to avoid going over the fiscal cliff were particularly difficult ones for Republicans. President Obama had a huge negotiating advantage: If a deal wasn’t struck, taxes would go up on everyone, not just the high-income earners, and the military would be decimated by deep spending cuts. Presumably Republicans will be in a stronger position as we approach our next governing crisis: the debt ceiling deadline in early March.
There is a twin danger for the GOP, however. One is that they enter negotiations assuming the president is responsible and acting in good faith—and that a “good government” solution will be found and a grand bargain will be struck. That’s not going to happen. Mr. Obama is a dogmatist and a committed progressive. He has no interest in reining in spending or reforming entitlements. He wants to, in his words, “transform” America. And he has a burning desire to destroy the GOP.
The second danger facing Republicans is they once again engage in brinksmanship with the president—that they elevate the debt ceiling debate and (unwisely) threaten to allow the United States to default right up until the moment when they cave (which they would be forced to do).
My counsel to them would therefore be to take the threat of default off the table sooner rather than later. (One way to do this would be to pass legislation that increases the debt limit for, say, six months at a time.) Republicans should simultaneously put forward reasonable and realistic cuts to offset the increase in the debt limit, in the hope that they can secure some gains. Which leads me to my broader piece of advice.
The Republican Party tends to do quite poorly when it engages in high-profile negotiations/confrontations with Democratic presidents. It happened to Newt Gingrich in 1995 over Medicare and the government shutdown. It happened to the GOP Congress in 1998 over impeachment. And it happened to John Boehner and the GOP in the summer of 2011 and December 2012 over the debt ceiling and the fiscal cliff.
The reason for this has been, in part, because it’s impossible to govern when a party controls just one legislative chamber. The president, especially one with a sympathetic press, has enormous things working in his favor in any showdown with Congress.
On the flip side, the two greatest electoral gains for Republicans in Congress happened in 1994 and 2010. Those elections were not preceded by dramatic, high-stakes, last-second negotiations that took place in a crisis atmosphere. Rather, they came in the aftermath of Democratic presidents and Democratically-controlled Congress’ overreaching. Republicans forcefully criticized the policies of Clinton (in 1993 and 1994) and Obama (in 2009 and 2010)–but they did not threaten to shut down the government, cause America to go into default, and encourage America to go over any fiscal cliffs.
So what does that mean for the here and now? The mindset of the GOP should be to jettison the idea that Obama is a responsible interlocutor (Speaker Boehner seems to have gotten that message in pledging that he will no longer negotiate one-on-one with Obama). Second, congressional Republicans should accept the fact that even though they have a majority in the House, their power to shape the governing agenda is still severely limited. There will be no meaningful reforms of entitlements or the tax code. Accept it; and accept that they cannot undo the damage of Obamaism so long as he remains president.
Republicans should of course check Mr. Obama’s ambitions where they can and when they occupy the political high ground (like on the implementation of ObamaCare). But trying to put America on a different course right now, given the present circumstances, is a fool’s errand. Prudence is a political virtue–and in this case, prudence argues for modesty of aims and expectations.
At the same time, Republicans in the House should pass bills with an eye toward sketching out an ambitious governing agenda—not in the hopes that it will ever become law during the Obama years, but simply to lay out a compelling alternative to Obama.
In sum, then: Republicans need to carefully pick their fights. Declare now that under no circumstances will they allow the U.S. to default on its debt–and then pass legislation to prove it. At the same time, Republicans should continue to argue for re-limiting government by offering up specific proposals. Hold hearings that highlight the failures of government. Demonstrate patience. Don’t try to remake the world. And lay out a reform agenda that Republicans would implement if Obama wasn’t president and if Republicans controlled both legislative chambers.
The public will eventually grow weary of Obama and Obamaism. The job of Republicans right now is not to get in the way of that process.
Two House GOP strategies should be to n1) pass specific bills that actually cut discretionary spending. Every time I read TNR comments, they always claim that all the GOP wants to cut is SS, Medicare, and Medicaid. n What happened to Tom Coburn's spending cuts? n2) focus on the Regulatory Avalanche, especially whatever the EPA tries to do to stop fracking. n nSomeone needs to remind Obama and the Dems that they stopped mentioning the word "Jobs" at the end of Election Day. And suddenly Obama's main legislative agenda is immigration reform and gun control? What happened to jobs? n nLike Boehner, The Economist has now seen the error of their rosy beliefs. n nMessing with the debt limit again will truly damage America in ways that matter. nWho wants such a dysfunctional misgovernance as the 'leader of the free world' or 'safe haven'?
You're missing the forest for the trees. The reason the GOP does badly is not so much because they're bad negotiators but rather because their 'goals' are not shared by enough people. The loudest voices in the GOP are screaming that the deficit is going to be the ruin of us all, yet people have been hearing this for close to thirty years, so they're not going to accept a whole lot of current disruption to their lives (such as closing parks, DMVs, whatever) in order to avoid some problem that exists only in the abstract.
Eric cantor voted NEA for fiscal cliff only to unseats his boss John Boehner and take the helm after Boehner is knocked out. AMA American Action Majority spokesperson Ron Meyer rightly said. “That’s more than enough to get the job done, but the one problem these guys face is they need a leader to coalesce behind.” AMA coalesced At least 25 House Republican members together, discussed this and wanted to unseat Speaker Boehner. They are willing to do what it takes to get House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA) take the helm after Boehner is knocked out. . It’s a month since Israel evaporated outta world headlines. Israel is another Antarctica everybody knows it is there but no one would deal with it but the bribed and the corrupt. Come on girls. Ain’t damn secret no mo. Israeli Deranged Megalomaniac Egomaniacs lost the White House and the Capitol big time? Zionists got to commit a crime to surf headlines again or get Eric Cantor elected as House Speaker to draw American Fools’ attention to petty Israel. Nice daydream Eric. Eric cantor is the only Israelifirster Zionist AIPAC Republican who will love to U-Haul Israel to World Headlines if he’s elected. It's a lovely idea, but first USA have to get it past corrupt politicians many of whom are quite aware of the scam that plays Americans on daily basis, however rather than do the job Americans have elected them to do, they keep their mouths shut and instead look after themselves and their families, whilst the rest of USA continue to be exploited for Israel. Eric Cantor wears John Wayne Shirt & Cowboys’ boots and speak with Southern Accent to pose that he’s ain’t East European Urban Rejects that John Boehner enjoy snubbing while hangover. Jack Daniel’s or Bell's Whiskey. John Boehner is back and he knows very will that Eric Cantor ain’t a thing but scam.
with you it's always the Jews. and the side effects of course.
Replying to besht2003 nhaha
s'true. n nas much as you type that's what it comes down to. you hate Jews. you hate Israel. you don't need all the Neal Cassady meth babble to communicate that — it isn't that your Jew hatred is some great profound thing, the living fount of cascades of words–your Jew hatred is *pre*-verbal. Rhetorically, no matter how many miles you walk, you end up with the same fixation, face down along a railroad track outside of San Miguel de Allende.
I could not agree more! And while speaking to the press about the Republican agenda…do so in a clear, concise, explanation using only one or two syllable words. Then hammer those words home.
Great advice. "Going big" with some elaborate scheme for largescale cuts will never be signed into law by Obama (assuming it can pass the Senate) anyway. All that can come of such proposals is to be cornered into agreeing to more tax increases with "cuts" that are really just reductions in future spending projections that would be easily reversed. 2013 discretionary spending will run about $1.3 trillion. Cut 5% of that — $65 billion — and you've accomplished a near miracle. Build the cuts into the base budgets and you could be looking at a real reduction of deficits of $650 billion in 10 years. Come to think of it, half that would be a big deal, considering the GOP controls only one house. n nAt the same time, Obama and the Dems would be cornered into defending all manner of pork, crony capitalism, waste, inefficiency and outrageous giveaways. n
Obama will never cut spending, he wants to over load and break the system and stand up in it's place a socialistic utopia. George Soros is also pulling Obama’s strings as well.
Your advice would be sound if we could stand another four years of $1-2 trillion deficits. I doubt it.
When the debate over the debt ceiling comes, Republicans will have arrived at the last opportunity to maintain their credibility with conservatives. Most conservatives will want them to hold fast for spending cuts, even at the risk of a government shut down and even among those who agreed with Boehner during the last few weeks(as I have). In other words, most of us will go to the mat with them, and if they lose, then it's completely hopeless, but, at least, they will have done their duty.
They will do nothing but talk… They hold the strings.
ATT – could you clarify what you mean by "then it's completely hopeless"? I think I get what you mean – I'm just not sure how big "it's" is, if that makes sense. Are you referring to the next four years, or to the American Experiment in general?
In my humble opinion, the American Experiment in limited government directed by informed, responsible, free citizens is over. I hate to be so pessimistic; but I believe the Left, in its totality, has slowly but surely killed this country. And an intentional murder it was. Not unlike the Fall of the Roman Empire; a catastrophe for the world in many ways. Happy New Year everybody!
Sadly, I agree.
Mike, both! Any conservative opposition will become very similar to the so-called conservative parties throughout most of Europe: touching some spending on the margins and maintaining high tax rates on the productive. The consequences will be slow growth(which we're seeing already), the institutionalization of large government programs(also witnessing) and a major reduction in our military and foreign policy commitments. Your children and my grandchildren will be much less likely to live in a free land with a wide array of economic opportunities. As Yogi said, "it's not over till it's over," but the real confrontation will be here by April and we will see by then. I'm not quite where 5d is yet, but not very hopeful it will play out our way.
I was convinced (you may recall!) that we would win in November. My faith in America depended on that. I see very little to be hopeful about, now. nOn the other hand, I just spent 10 days with my folks in Houston (my hometown). Now there's a city (and state) with a good head on its shoulders. Just being there was rejuvenating. Exxon has moved its corporate HQ to The Woodlands, a huge suburb north of Houston. 3,000+ jobs in a great industry. I wonder how many people will be moving to the Promised Land from places like new York and California? nSo I guess there is hope – it looks like a Lone Star.
Texas is a wonderful economic and political story. So much so that I root for any Texas team and was thrilled with A&M's victory in the Cotton Bowl, even though they beat Oklahoma, another team from a conservative state.
I'm an Aggie, too!
reasonable advice. do nothing but do it more slowly. n ntwo thumbs up!
In my humble opinion, with respect, I must strongly disagree with the premise that the US House of Representatives, arguably the most representative body in the government, should cede authority to the president on all issues. Obama's isn't the first royal presidency. Presidential dominance, antithetical to the wishes of the founding fathers, has become the norm. President after president, at least since Lincoln, has increasingly abused his power, in effect continuing to erode the concept of checks and balances. To ask Republican Congressmen to accede to tyrannical presidential behavior, counter to the wishes of a duly elected congress, may be expedient in the short run but will be ruinous in the long run.
If the representatives we elected have any conscience at all, they will take seriously the constitutional duties vested in them. That means than when it comes to spending they are ultimately responsible. They should refuse to continue the recklessness of the past four years. Hopefully they will be more concerned about doing what is right rather than selling our children out in hopes of getting themselves re-elected. n nThe notion that our economy is too fragile to withstand federal government spending cuts is false. Economists are consistent in warning that our deficit spending is unsustainable. Allowing the country to become increasingly saddled with debt and prolonged economic stagnation will not lead those who supported Obama to an eventual epiphany favoring Republicans. Romney may not have said it well, but he was correct to lament the large percent of Americans who have become dependent on federal handouts. That number will be the only thing growing should the Republicans go along with Obama's wishes.
You can read Thomas Sowell on his comments at various times regarding the Stupid Party. He offers constructive criticism and advice. The Establishment Republicans have squandered their 2010 victory in the House. It's about lack of leadership, guts, integrity, and the warrior ethos, not to mention the Founders and what they would have done.
So the advice to avoid a GOP “debacle” is a GOP preemptive surrender. Give Obama endless debt ceiling limit increases without trying to demand anything in return. Is that why you (presumably) voted for the Republican representative for your House district? To give Obama what he wants so as to avoid negative press? In July 2011 the GOP leadership ignored those extremely extreme tea party extremists who counseled not raising the debt ceiling without some real concessions, and instead did the reasonable thing and agreed to the stupid and artificial fiscal cliff arrangement. Not only did the GOP still get bad press, the debt and deficit were taken away as campaign issues until the election was over. Would it really have been worse politically or policy-wise if those tea partiers had been listened to back in 2011? How? I don’t think rolling over again, this time without a fight, is a good plan for anything.