The buzz in Israel at this hour is that leaked exit polls are showing that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party may be doing far worse than expected in today’s election. The story is that Likud’s total of Knesset seats will drop below 30 and that centrist newcomer Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid party will wind up in second place, with right-wing star Naftali Bennett’s Jewish Home also doing well and the Labor Party possibly dropping to third or even fourth place.
If true, this would cause a major shake-up in Israeli politics. But President Obama and other American liberal critics of Netanyahu shouldn’t get too excited. Even if the rumors and leaked polls are accurate, there’s no doubt that Netanyahu will still be leading the next Israeli government.
A scenario in which Lapid and Bennett’s parties are big winners would certainly mean that Netanyahu would be weakened. But that was already in the cards, as his own party (which absorbed Avigdor Lieberman’s party prior to the campaign) had become one in which those to the right of the prime minister were going to have more influence.
But even a Likud that scores under 30 would still mean that right-wing and religious parties will wind up with more than a majority, meaning there is no chance of a government led by anyone but Netanyahu. However, the rise of Lapid does give the prime minister a chance to form a government without the religious parties since, if the rumors are correct, Yesh Atid could wind up with as many seats as those parties may get.
While Lapid is put in the same camp as left-wingers like Labor’s Shelly Yacimovich or Tzipi Livni, he has also made it clear that he is largely on the same page as Netanyahu when it comes to issues of war and peace. His priority is domestic politics, and principally in changing the law to ensure that the Haredim are drafted into the Israel Defense Forces like other Israelis. A coalition with Likud, Bennett (whose modern Orthodox and secular supporters also support draft equality) and Lapid is not out of the question. It would be a difficult marriage, but so would any possible collection of Israeli parties. If this happens, there will be no real shift in Israel’s position on borders or settlements.
We’ll find out later today whether the actual results will resemble the rumors (Israel is seven hours ahead of the Eastern United States, meaning that by mid-evening EST, we should have a good idea of what will happen). But even in the worst scenario for the Likud, Netanyahu is still on track to get his third term in the prime minister’s office.
A Likud-Jewish Home-Yesh Atid coalition (with about 70 seats between them) would be the best possible outcome for Israel.
Except, Labor is apparently doing really poorly, and Yesh Atid is anything but left wing.
According to the Times of Israel: n n"Isaac Herzog of the Labor Party says there are good relations between Labor and Yesh Atid and that the two could potentially cooperate to form a center-left government. The two parties are projected to have 17 and 19 seats, respectively, according to the Channel 10 and Channel 1 exit polls." n nWe'll wait until the actual results but Labor isn't doing that poorly. It looks like they are exit-polling in line with the most recent polls. And 36 seats between the two of them isn't something to sneeze at. I realize Yesh Atid isn't Labor but I wouldn't be shocked if they got together.
Yesh Atid actually has a number of right-of-center members, inc. Orthodox American olim. They appear to have done surprisingly well but I would caution that Israeli exit polls are notoriously inaccurate.
prefer to wait until the polls are closed, but do like imagining Naftali Bennett as the next Defense Minister, especially if Hagel needs someone to jaw-jaw with
nLeaked exit polls might just change some voters back to Likud.
The hunt for 120 Knesset seats is going. Here’s 99 to go: nLikud-Yisrael Beiteinu 31 seats nYesh Atid 19 seats nLabor party 17 seats nJewish Home party 12 seats nShas 11 seats nHatnuah 7 seats nBalad 2 seats n
Left-right split in Israel still leans about 55-45%. By left, that's anything without an emotional tie to the Land of Israel movement or the religious national block with Shas pinging around. Or 3 to 5% less then what the GOP gets nationally–it isn't as if Herut-Gahal and its successors have an overwhelming lock on public opinion. otoh Likud-YB is the single largest faction and that's a solid 55%–less has been good enough for the Dems to rule the roost. otoh the "left-wing" mandates are toted up to include the Arab parties. And Arab separatist/ethnic/communist lists are something other than vanilla left-wing.
I agree that Netanyahu-bashers shouldn't rejoice. n nWay too early and no great damage done to him at this point
Let's hope Netanyahu sees Obama as the biggest Netanyahu-basher of them all. Even then, I am not certain the prime minister will get Obama and what he is about.
let's hope that that perception turns out to be correct and President gets in a couple and the chastisement helps Israel.
If Netanyahu does not include Naftali Bennett’s (land of Israel) Jewish Home party in his coalition, there will be many unhappy campers in the nationalist and religious Zionist camp. All eyes will be on Bennett to see what kind of politician or statesman he will become. Netanyahu made a mistake attacking Bennett, in my opinion.
Take home message of this election and many that preceded it: The Arabs and Islamics never disappoint. Their deep hatred of the Jews is the one thing that keeps Israel honest.