The polls are closed in Israel and the counting of the ballots is now being conducted. But if the published exit polls are accurate, there is, as expected, no doubt about who will lead the next government. The exits show Netanyahu’s Likud getting 31 Knesset seats–far more than any other party. The parties making up the current coalition received 61 seats, a clear majority. But Netanyahu will have other options, and the big losers could be the religious parties that could wind up on the outside looking in at the next government.
That’s because the big winner of the election turned out to be journalist Yair Lapid’s secular Yesh Atid Party, whose main platform plank was support for a change in the conscription laws that would mandate the drafting of ultra-Orthodox Jews into the Israel Defense Forces. That’s a proposition on which the Likud as well as the Jewish Home Party led by Naftali Bennett could easily agree. Netanyahu is already reportedly reaching out to Lapid to join him in a broad coalition that he would probably prefer to the current cabinet. It’s also something most non-Haredi Israelis will applaud.
It should be remembered that exit polls are not actual votes and even if they do reflect the results, the army vote–which is counted last–could also change the results and tilt the numbers a bit more to the advantage of the nationalist parties.
Lapid has apparently won 18 or 19 seats, far more than the last polls showed him getting. Over the last week it appears Israel’s swing voters, who wanted to keep Netanyahu as prime minister but wanted to register a slight note of protest, went for Lapid’s list in larger numbers than those who voted for Bennett.
Though many, especially in the foreign press, tended to lump Lapid in with Labor as part of a center-left faction, his positions on security and defense issues are quite compatible with those of Netanyahu. His vote cannot be interpreted as a pro-peace protest against Netanyahu. Rather, it is very much in a long tradition of Israeli parties that capitalized on secular resentment against the power of the ultra-Orthodox parties. He ought to be able to exact a high price from Netanyahu, but there’s little doubt the prime minister will be happy to pay it since Lapid might be easier to deal with than the political extortionists at Shas and United Torah Judaism that are always available to sell their votes to the highest bidders.
As for Bennett, his total fell short of his highest poll numbers. But he is still in a very strong position. His 12 seats make him an essential part of any coalition led by Netanyahu. He will act as a brake on any possible lurch to the left on the peace process, but given the lack of interest on the part of the Palestinian Authority in returning to negotiations, its doubtful that he has much to worry about. Moreover, his religious Zionist party won’t have any trouble supporting a change in the draft laws to ensure more Haredim serve in the army.
Another potential member of the next government would be Tzipi Livni. Her new Hatnua Party won approximately seven seats. There’s no love lost between Livni and Netanyahu, but if she refuses to join a coalition that already included Lapid, she would be effectively marginalized. That’s something Livni probably wouldn’t be able to stand. Of all the party leaders, she is the one left with the toughest choice.
One party that is unlikely to join Netanyahu would be Labor, which finished a disappointing third. Labor leader Shelly Yacimovich knows that the only hope to build her party back to its position as one of Israel’s two biggest is by leading the opposition in the next Knesset. She will stand aside this time and hold onto the not-unreasonable hope that she will do far better the next time.
There will be those who will portray these numbers as something of a rebuke to Netanyahu, and there is something to that. But as I wrote a couple of weeks ago, his biggest problem in this vote was that he couldn’t lose. Since the lack of a serious alternative to him made his re-election a certainty, voters were free to support smaller parties rather than the Likud and therefore register their preference for the kind of coalition he would lead. Though Netanyahu would have liked to have a bigger total for Likud, he can’t be disappointed with the bottom line of this vote: he remains prime minister and will be able to pick and choose his coalition partners. The next government will be fractious and difficult to manage but for all of his problems, Netanyahu remains the only possible choice to be prime minister for the foreseeable future.
charleston: The new Egypt can not even import enough oil to fuel what they have – see Spengler's "State of Denial" at Asia Times. yeah, deliberate pun on The Nile. n nSo, why insist on the gift of "Sixteen F-16s and 200 Abrams tanks"? nI certainly hope it is to help Egypt 'protect' Libya's eastern oil fields and water infrastructure n nAs for Israel's election? I prefer to wait for the final results, but it seems that Tzipi Livni will not be Foreign Minister again, definitely a good thing in so many ways. n nWhat is Michael Oren going to do next? n nA Likud+Beitenu coalition with Lapid and Bennett's parties will truly confound the western media. And, where else will Shas and UTJ go? n
Ultra-Orthodox as in "too Orthodox " or merely as in "extremely Orthodox"? Or as opposed to psuedo-Orthodox? Too often when someone uses the term very Orthodox they are saying they know nothing about Orthodox Judaism and don't care to find out. Too often when they say ultra-Orthodox, they mean they don't like Orthodox Jews very much but they dislike Chareidim even more. n nPlease stop sounding like New York TImes reporter or a spokesperson for transgendered Jewish activists demanding the right to put tefillin on a ham sandwich at the Kotel. n n n
Yasha Koach! Hazak!
ok ok: "ne plus ultra Orthodox"
Disclaimer: my step-kids, their spouses and kids, may they all be well, consider themselves yeshivish & might therefore be considered chareidim by some. But plenty of Dati Leumi, Torah im Derech Eretz, YU/Torah umada, sephardi, mizrachi, chardal and other learned, committed, observant Orthodox non-chareidi Jews would justifiably take umbrage at your describing Chareidim as 'ne plus ultra' Orthodox. Anyone who thinks Chareidim are 'more Orthodox" than other Orthodox Jews — as opposed to having an approach to Orthodoxy that differs in some ways — is very likely to be ignorant. n nOn the other hand, if you keep your wigs on the dresser and your TV in the closet, you might be yeshivish.
cmon it's a pun n nas for the distinctions between Orthodox or the most basic aleph bet of traditional Jewish learning, total ignoramus as charged, absolute, but I guess LCDs have made life easier
and not a bad one at that. n n nthem what can't take a small little joke might as well join the next NK caravan to tehran for the conference.
Some times one of the greatest brochos you can have is to have enemies who although very smart are arrogant to the point of utter stupidity.
my brother, a very successful man and my opposite in countless ways surprised me by disdainfully and spontaneously characterizing the President as "arrogant" the last time we met
I should get such a rebuke–all talk remains as to who will join *his* coalition–there's spin in that NYTimes report that gets full whirly at the bottom of page 1–the implication that somehow mandates awarded to parties concentrating on domestic issues (economy, electoral system, national service and the draft, housing) was a peace vote when they didn't run on that–if the dog doesn't bark doesn't mean it was barking really really loud but silently. There is one report (in American press) that Lapid wants negotiations with the Palis as coaltiion pricetag but Livni, who has adopted peacenik themes also upholds the right to E-1 and "settlements". n n nAnd yes, on the whole the left-center seems to be edging into rough 60-60 or 59-61 parity, counting the Arab parties –do they get ministries?would they sit in a coalition? would they be invited? & for sure Commentary sometimes seems to conflate a weariness and wariness with Palestinian claims with adherence to the nationalist camp mindset. n nBut at the end of the day it is still a 31-19 spread between Bibi and Lapid.
Lets see. Lapid exacting a high price from Netanyahu is fine but the Ultra Religious are EXTORTIONISTS! Whats the difference exactly?? All the parties asked to be part of the ruling coalition have a price whether left, right, center secular or ultra orthodox. This is not only true in Israel but in all socialist governments. Tobin shows his anti religious bias load and clear. He goes along with the hatred campaign agains the religious waged by the press and left in Israel. n
well no one like that here. n nThe Satmar rebbe is reported to have turned down similar invitations with the explanation "I hate the Zionists because they are not Jewish enough. You hate them because they are too Jewish."
I like that! By the way, I am trying to follow DCdoc's advice about (not) responding to a certain foul-mouthed troll. n nThere are historic as well as religious reasons behind the Satmar's distaste for Zionists. Ben Hecht's book Perfidy recounts how the anti-religious Labor Zionists deliberately sabotaged the rescue of Hungarian Jewry during the war because they were too religious to make good socialists.
Is there a divide in Israeli politics between the Ashkenazi and the Sephardim or Mizrahi?