So much for the exaggerated hopes of those that believed Kim Jong-un would turn out to be a different kind of dictator. Following a long-range rocket test in December, North Korea has now apparently tested a nuclear weapon bigger than any it has tested before. This, despite warnings not only from South Korea, Japan, and the United States, but also from China, not to test. Far from being the reformer as many naively imagined, Kim is showing himself a chip off the old dynastic bloc, once again using North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction to posture before the world and no doubt to shake concessions out of the U.S., South Korea, and other states.
What makes this test truly disturbing is the close cooperation that is known to exist between Iran and North Korea in the development of ever-more destructive weaponry. The two countries have worked closely together on missiles and may well be working together on nuclear weapons. If so, the North Korean test is an indication of growing danger not only in Northeast Asia but also in the Middle East.
And what is the American response to this latest provocation? To his credit, President Obama has not repeated the pattern of his predecessors in trying to shower North Korea with aid to get it to desist from its dangerous behavior—a pattern that only subsidized North Korean malfeasance. Rather than trying to relaunch stalled six-party talks, he has actually pushed for the toughest sanctions yet on North Korea although their ability to actually coerce Pyongyang is limited as long as China refuses to cut off economic aid.
But these tough responses are undermined to a large extent by the symbolism of Obama proposing steep cuts in the American nuclear arsenal—from 1,700 to 1,000 warheads—in the State of the Union address on the very day when North Korea is testing a nuke and Iran is drawing closer to acquiring its own nukes. It is hard to know why the president imagines unilateral American cuts will encourage more responsible behavior from the likes of Iran and North Korea. The more likely consequence is to call into question America’s deterrent capacity, an especially pressing issue if, as Bret Stephens argues in this Wall Street Journal column, China’s nuclear arsenal is actually larger than commonly supposed.
With the danger growing from both Iran and North Korea it is all the more incumbent on the US to reassure regional allies—from Saudi Arabia to South Korea–that they will be sheltered securely underneath the American nuclear umbrella. If we cut our own nuclear forces drastically, the credibility of our guarantees diminishes and the likelihood goes up that our allies will seek nuclear weapons of their own, potentially setting off two nuclear arms races.
Of course it is not just in the nuclear realm that the US is undertaking defense cuts. Our overall military budget is to undergo drastic cuts within weeks assuming that the Congress and White House do not reach an agreement to turn off the sequester. Already the military services are cutting back on readiness and training. The Navy, for one, has announced that the Persian Gulf area will for the time being have only one aircraft carrier battle group on station, rather than two.
It is hard to think of a more threatening prospect than unilateral American military reductions at a time when our enemies our growing stronger. Weakness, it is often said, is provocative. By that measure we are provoking two of the most dangerous rogue states in the world.










"But these tough responses are undermined to a large extent by the symbolism of Obama proposing steep cuts in the American nuclear arsenal—from 1,700 to 1,000 warheads…." n nOMG we're gonna be defenseless!!!
You are an idiot.
I think this Hillel character is a sock-puppet of Wehner, Boot, Podhoretz and a few others at the blog, contrived to elicit scathing dialog. He's just too dense to be real. nBut then again …
nope, Hillel posts same stuff at Pajamas Media. Just a democrat trying to find a place to comment.
Using the NK danger opportunistically, against US defense cuts is more than pointless. It supports the illusion that that is all we can do and more US spending is the only solution. Even a doubling would achieve little other than justify Pyongyang all the more. n nWe must stop ignoring Beijing's culpability. Without its connivance, certainly against its opposition, Pyongyang would do nothing. It is China's vassal, all protestations to the contrary. NK withers and dies the moment its patron is angered and closes the door. China plays the innocent while using the North to periodically give the US and her allies a hot foot. n nWe must give them a hot foot of our own: a Washington/Tokyo announcement that 12 Ohio class missile submarines, including their armament, have been leased to Japan. Three quarters of those boats manned by Japanese crews are now cruising under the South China Sea. The lease will end once China pulls North Korea's nuclear teeth. n nA similar deal might also be worked out with Seoul. We have plenty of missile subs.
In his book Invisible Armies, Boot describes how a particular approach must be used to combat insurgency. Similarly, in this post, Boot declares the provocative nature of weakness when describing how in the wake of North Korea testing nuclear arsenal, the US is proposing steep cuts in our own levy of arsenal. Nuclear arsenal does not ultimately suggest insurgency but it does express that like combatting insurgency, a similar approach must be used. The main question remains not in allies and prospective threats but how the US can combat nuclear weaponry by “two of the most dangerous rogue states in the world” while not emphasizing our own nuclear stability?