Republicans are experiencing a serious problem as they attempt to stand up to President Obama’s pressure to give in and raise taxes again in order to avert the sequester budget cuts. In spite of the fact that the idea for the scheme originated in the White House and that it is the president’s intransigence in insisting on more taxes rather than a spending solution, the public isn’t buying the GOP’s argument. Two new polls show not only that the president’s job approval rating is at its highest mark since his 2009 honeymoon, but that more people blame Republicans for the sequester and the damage it will do to the economy and national defense than blame Obama.
Democrats claim this is because they have the better argument when they put forward their so-called “balanced approach” to the deficit that calls, at least in theory, for both cuts and increased revenue. But though there may be some truth to this, when one looks deeper into the numbers it’s not clear this assertion stands up to scrutiny. As was the case last year when the country’s weak economy and the administration’s meager accomplishments seemed to guarantee the president’s defeat, Republicans are discovering anew that a situation that might sink another president is not hurting the incumbent’s public standing or giving them any leverage to resist his demands. The rules are just different for Barack Obama–and the sooner the GOP comes to grips with this reality, the better off they’ll be.
Polls from Bloomberg, USA Today/Pew Research and even Rasmussen all show the president with positive job approval ratings. Even more to the point, both Bloomberg and Pew have survey results that seem to back up the idea that the administration’s “balanced” formula is better than one that concentrates solely on cutting spending. Those numbers have led the president to believe in the efficacy of a public campaign of demagoguery aimed at portraying Republicans as the party of the rich defending millionaires’ private jet deductions while seeking to cut aid to the poor.
But the same polls also show a majority don’t approve of the way Obama is handling the budget or the deficit. In a country in which those problems are viewed as the nation’s priority, Obama’s personal poll numbers ought to be lower. And even where the majority back both tax increases and spending cuts, most believe the emphasis should be on the latter rather than the former–which also ought to lead to more opposition to the president’s stands.
There is little doubt that most also understand that if Washington grabs more “revenue,” the result will be a bigger government, not a smaller deficit, as Jonathan Cohn admits today in the New Republic. Though Obama’s laundry list of liberal spending projects in his State of the Union address are all relatively popular, the national appetite for more government is still limited.
That ought to mean that Republicans should be on firm ground when they push back against the White House’s over-the-top dog-and-pony shows in which the president highlights the suffering that will be caused by Republicans. The notion that Republicans are being any more ideological in their stands than he is on these issues doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. His histrionic threats to shut down vital services to spite the GOP are also easily lampooned. And yet Obama remains popular and capable of inflicting real damage on his opponents in the debate on these issues.
The answer to the Republican Party’s problem revolves around the same factor that they failed to grasp in 2012: the president’s unique appeal and popularity. After more than four years of facing off against him, Republicans should understand by now that the laws of political gravity do not apply to Obama.
That doesn’t mean they must, as some faint-hearted Republicans think, surrender without a fight. There is nothing wrong with the conservative principles they uphold, and House Republicans can drive a hard bargain on the deficit that demands entitlement reform if they have the guts to stick to their guns.
Obama’s status as the nation’s first African-American president and the consequent kid-glove treatment he gets from the press make it difficult, if not impossible, to hold him accountable for his hypocrisy or his failures. As I wrote earlier in the week, the White House’s innovative strategies for manipulating the media do not fully explain his ability to evade the normal tough scrutiny that any president gets. Nor does the liberal bias of the mainstream media, though that, too, is a contributing factor.
Obama’s identity as the man who makes Americans feel good about their country renders all other factors irrelevant. This is something that conservatives struggle to understand primarily because they are immune to the president’s personal charm and speaking ability. But it is a fact they must accept if they don’t want to spend the next four years banging their heads against a wall. That’s why the GOP must stop focusing so much on trying to attack a president who is impervious to criticism and concentrate on the sort of big ideas about growth that made them the party of ideas in the ’80s and ’90s.
In the long run, Democrats are going to learn that without Obama fronting for them, their attempt to reboot the New Deal/Great Society coalition built on more and bigger government will fail. The notion that they can dominate the coming decade of American politics by spending and taxing more is a myth that will lead to future defeats at the hands of articulate conservatives who can run on a platform of reforming the government.
Until then, the GOP is stuck with the role of Obama’s punching dummy. So long as Barack Obama is in the White House, the struggle between Democrats and Republicans will always be an unequal one.
Tobin's columns are such predictable garbage. He's always urging the GOP on to the next fight, than crumbling. Left unsaid is how high he thinks taxed ought to go now. n nObama's fantastic popularity amounts to 51% approval in three polls and a 55% in the Bloomberg. This is what the GOP must cave into, has no chance of resisting? n nWhen the GOP votes to increase taxes, they are dead to their constituency. They might just get by with having allowed them to go up (when there was nothing they could really do to prevent it). But voting to increase them is too much,
I don't always agree with Mr. Tobin, but I wouldn't refer to anything he writes as "garbage". I actually agree with you after that.
If the Republicans really wanted to be popular they could declare as one of their budget cutting ideas – ending the war on Med-Pot. An idea supported by 70% to 80% of the population. If they wanted 50%+ they could call for the end of marijuana prohibition altogether. But they can't do either. Their base would revolt. Rock meet hard place. n nMedical Marijuana prohibition is a crime against humanity and a violation of the religious precept – heal the sick.
The problem is, where are the loud speakers for the Republicans?! Even Boehner in WSJ says the "deep" cuts are harmful. Are you kidding me?! They'll never get spending under control. We are doomed. The Republicans are quiet for most part and allow BHO to set the narrative every day. Where are the Republican voices?! And the MSM have failed totally in providing objective information to the public. That's why BHO's likeability numbers in the polls are so high. He's allowed to get away with lies.
I wonder if you answer your question, gigireceda. Where are the loud speakers for the Republicans? Is the problem that they are quiet, as you say, or is it the MSM's total failure to provide objective information to the public, which you also say? I think the latter largely explains the former, actually.
With Bloomberg seriously suspect as a reliable and impartial pollster, all the other polls show Obama holding steady at 51% since the election. And that is how it is likely going to stay for the rest of his term, for the reasons Tobin lists (felling good about electing African American however unqualified, MSM beyond bias and now simply a part of Obama permanent campaign, etc.) nYes, regardless of what they do GOP will not be able to lower Obama's approval numbers below that magic 51%. And they should stop trying. nBut so what? all that it means is that GOP could win another election against Obama. Well, there isn't going to be one. He is not going to run again. And he is notoriously unable and/or unwilling to transfer any portion of that 51%, over and above the usual suspects, to anyone else. nThe GOP strategy should be clear; n1. hold steady denying Obama any part of his extremist agenda. All the polls will show him at 51% why this is happening. Ignore it. n2.concentrate on 2014. He is not going to run, and he can't/won't help anyone else running. That's the GOP target.
" That’s why the GOP must stop focusing so much on trying to attack a president . . . "——WHEN DID THEY EVERY TRY ATTACKING HIM? That is the problem. They never do. Not where it counts: on honesty, credibility, vanity, Will to Power–all the areas he is really vulnerable on. These are left almost totally alone. Attacking his policies (which is the most that the GOP does) does not work. The "Big Ideas" approach wont' work because the public TRUSTS Obama more. All he has to do is say "They have Bad Ideas" and the case is closed. Until the GOP can undermine that trust, they will never make headway.
Defense cuts are worth it for the other cuts in the sequester. I do not believe ther is no fat in the DoD budget. Reduce troop strength in for non-essential missions like Germany. Highly unlikely the Russia will attack. Ditto Japan. American strength in the 21st century is based more on its economy than on its military. We also should push to be reimbursed for our presence in the Persian Gulf by the Europeans who are the primary benficiaries. Even under Obama, who is blocking most oil drilling initiatives where he can, we are becoming less and less dependent on middle east oil. Republican pundits, Commentary in particular, should stop kvetching.
Promise Everything…. Deliver Nothing….. Blame Someone Else….
If the rules are different for Obama, then the GOP's strategy is self-evident: break the rules. Republicans should stick to their demands, treat the President as if he's nothing special and let the chips fall where they may. That may cost them politically, but a total cave-in would be a catastrophe leading, probably, to the loss of the House in 2014. I for one would have a hard time persuading myself that there's any point in giving my vote to a party whose standard operating procedure is to tongue-polish BHO's wingtips.
It's a fascinating post and the comments are equally interesting. The president has this sort of aura about him that enchants the press, and much of our nation seems to like the guy. Well, if all you read are the good news stories, and the fawning articles on his family, you are sure to like him. And why not? The press leaves out the negative and there is almost no mainstream criticism whatsoever. n nRepublicans need to be consistent and serious in their arguments. They need to come out and directly say what's wrong with the president's policies and why his way is the wrong way for our country. Yes, there will be little support from the press. Yes, people will wonder if the words are too harsh. So what? Let them wonder and let them think: If the republicans are passionate maybe there's something to what they have to say. n nThe nation needs to hear the discussion and republicans (and right-thinking democrats, if there are any) need to stand firm. Polls are simply snapshots of today, but the discussions and policy decisions will have effects for decades. Our economy depends not only on what we do now, but what we did in years past and will do in years future. Our nation's defense, to cite another example, is not something you can build in a year, but over many years. n nThese policy differences need to be articulated and firmly held. There's no reason republicans cannot do it and, moreover, it's in the interest of the nation for them to do it. The debates and arguments are necessary and beneficial to our nation. n nAnd let's add something else that needs to be said. Republicans (and others who are not in agreement with the president) need to learn how to deal with a fawning press. One day there will be a woman president and she may hold views that democrats (or republicans) dislike. The way to approach this future female leader is similar to what must be done today. Better to learn the lessons now (for both parties and for a healthy democracy) then to pass on the opportunity.
"…the president’s intransigence in insisting on more taxes rather than a spending solution…." n nObama in fact wants a combination of both. But all this is beside the point of why the public is turning against the GOP. The underlying fact is that the GOP is threatening not to raise the debt ceiling unless it gets its way. It is holding the US economy — and the world's — hostage to gain its political ends. And this is NOT a symbolic vote against raising the ceiling as was done previously, with no prospect of actually succeeding. The GOP means to do damage if it can't get what it wants.
I vote Republican and I want them to stand pat on taxes unless they can get a true "grand bargain" from the Democrats with 3-4 trillion in deficit reduction. They should not raise taxes for any of the 1.3 trillion already included in the sequester.
The GOP is terrified of being branded racist. Obama overtly and covertly uses the same mau mau tactics against his political opponents that Jackson and Sharpton use against corporations to extort money. Obama is personally vulnerable on many counts but his opponents don't dare get racial or personal. This is ironic considering Obama's inclination to use the race card and to personally slander any and all opponents. n nObama and his like are guilty of what Bush Jr. called "the subtle racism of low expectations." They don't believe that African Americans can compete in a merit based, competitive, capitalist system. Their solution is socialism. Their intent is to turn America into Detroit and to make white Americans as dependent on government as black Americans. n nObama beat two white gentlemen easily in general elections because they were white gentlemen. The GOP pushback should come from Hispanic Republicans and the main point of attack should be race and economics. Hispanics in their majority believe in free enterprise and working hard to get ahead like most Americans. African Americans in their majority are dependent on government in one form or another. n nThe political and racial argument against Obama's black socialist agenda needs to made openly and aggressively and those making it need to demonstrate cojones the white gentlemen of the GOP lack.
Tobin's always saying next time we make the stand! Then when that next time he collapses. What's left now is for him to say how high he wants the GOP to raise taxes. All it takes to make him cry is an adverse poll.
The entire American society has accepted for decades Progressive ideas, in spite of clear contrary evidence. This type of behavior is very similar to the behavior of devout religious people. We know that religion is propagated by parents, friends, and teachers, and is stronger than logic and evidence. How do we counter the vast amount of influence of false ideas destructive to our economy and personal well-being? We must do what we can to fight the harmful zealots dangerous to our lives. Please do what you can do to help! n nWhen people suggest ideas, plans, or programs, and give reasons and justifications, please examine the ideas by asking two questions. Is the idea in accordance with our principles that have been historically justified? How have similar ideas fared in the past? Maybe the very opposite of the idea may be best for us. Are we careful to avoid giving less time to opposing ideas? n nIn spite of the reality that current political ideas are false and destructive, our leaders are succeeding in blind sighting the nation. The first step is awareness. Please do your share in thinking carefully, becoming aware, and making others aware of the grave dangers we face in the near future. n nThank you very much. n
Well we have proof that Drug Prohibition is not working. Who is most religious on that topic? n nWhy not defund the DEA as a start in reducing government? Because the Republican base would desert them. n nRepublicans are just as religiously unserious as the Democrats. n nMedical Marijuana prohibition is a crime against humanity and a violation of the religious precept – heal the sick. n
the rules are different for an affirmative action hire n neven reminding this hire that he is in the position by virtue of his race is verboten n nso we all pretend that this emperor has clothes, while we all try to endure until he goes away n nwhat an obscene mess
Wrong, wrong, wrong. n nIt's the media. Imagine the talk about gas prices, if Bush were in office and not Obama. n nImagine the press about the true unemployment numbers, if Bush were in office. n nThe same can be said about Benghazi, drones, the rising debt, the stagnant economy, the imperial Presidency — you name it. n nThe press is to blame because they won't hold Obama responsible for anything. n nBut even with Obama gone, the media will still be biased. Remember how they gave Hillary a pass when she, in the middle of the Lewinsky affair, blamed the Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy for Bill's problems. n nWhen she said that on the Today show, she knew what the real story was. She lied. And the press let her get away with it. If the press had called her on that lie, we never would have heard the term Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy again. n nWhen Obama leaves office, he won't take the press with him. They'll still be there selling the same crap. n n n n n n
Let us not forget the eight years of the Bush-2 presidency, and what this did to the public's willingness to cut Republicans a break. Why should they? Who in his right mind really thought John McCain and Sarah Palin were fit to lead this nation? What about Mitt "the businessman" Romney and Paul "the CPA" Romney? What about the years of supporting segregation, looking askance at "women's move out of the kitchens," or gays seeking decent treatment (forget gay marriage, which wasn't even on the agenda until the last few years!)? And how about the anti-abortion kooks (as opposed to folks who simply want abortions to be fewer and harder to obtain), and the anti-stem cell research nuts, or those who want to sell our national parks to "private enterprise" or cut down all the trees and foul the water and air for "economic benefit?" Why should Americans like Republicans? n nAnswer: most Americans do not like Republicans. I am a Republican, and this bothers me. I want my party to change, not in order to mimic the Democrats, but in order to give credibility and bring success to what's really important in politics: balanced budgets, strong defense, commitment to educating the nation's children, a balanced regulatory environment, and an aggressive and highly profitable approach to trade. And, I want "order" to prevail in the nation, including in our inner-city neighborhoods, which for a very long time have been dangerous and disorderly and disastrous for the children who grow up in them. n nThese things and a few more, like regulating interstate commerce and the financial markets, are what our politics are supposed to address. What they should NOT be used for is to regulate abortions, or tell citizens who they can have sex with, who they can marry etc. Nor should the government be telling businesses whom they can employ or fire—unless they are hiring and firing solely on the basis of race, ethnicity, gender, etc. And even then….. n n[continued below]
[continued] n nA personal note: I wonder why blacks cannot and/or will not emulate my people, the Jews, who instead of going to court to force the goyim to admit us to their country clubs—built our own! As far as employment discrimination—we opened and managed our own businesses. Housing? We owned construction companies. Medical care—more Jewish kids went to medical school at one point, than any other minority! Education? To this day (sadly) more Jews are on academic faculties than any other minority—by a huge margin. We work hard, we overlook slanders and slights whenever possible, we commit the fewest crimes of any religious group by percentage, we value stable family life, and we make sure (in most cases) that our kids go to the best colleges possible, even if it means dipping into the family's bank account to send them there. And we advocate on behalf of civil rights more than any single group does. And let us remember, that "advocating" is not the same as "demanding." We are rarely concerned with our own "rights," but never shrink from fighting for the rights of others! Name a black man or woman who does that. You cannot. And this is why Barack Obama is the president, in order to ensure that they never do! Which proves the adage: "Be careful what you wish for." In fact, this president is a nightmare for America's blacks. He will in the end set their push into the wider society back by decades. And he may do far more damage than that, if the Compromise of 1877, which ended Radical Reconstruction, is any clue as to what might lie ahead. n nNearly all of us have inhaled the lessons of the civil rights era. Now, it's time for the government to get out of the way and let us—citizens and localities throughout the land—work out the way we intend to live in our legally desegregated society. In other words, we need to take what the law says and over time fit our interactions to those laws. Will what "fits" be the same in every town, or even in every state? I sure hope not! This never was and should not now be a nation where "one size fits all." n nThe courts are what will aid us in making the shift from public enforcement and regulation to private agreements and settlements. If a party, whether because of his race or her gender, feels he/she has been treated unfairly in ways the federal laws forbid, the courts will decide the matter, and we'll all have to adjust. But I'm betting that Americans have had all they can take of being treated like puppets in the government's Punch and Judy show! We want them to get out of way. Those who don't, but still demand that government protect them or give them what they either cannot or will not get for themselves—-well, those folks will be uncomfortable for a while, until they produce a generation that wants to see what it can do "with all that freedom!" n nLet us be clear: none of what I've said is acceptable to Barack Obama. If he is anything, he is an incarnation of Lenin, another cold, intellectual man who was willing to do or say anything to amass and exercise absolute power over others. Like Lenin, Obama is both a genius tactician and strategist. Our president hits both the short AND the long ball! He is simply too much for Republicans, who are nothing like him. They are stiff, he's loose as a goose. They tell the truth as they know it, while Obama lies and knows he's lying! Whereas the Republicans see their limitations and are dismayed by them, Obama knows no limits. He, like his hero Lenin, will do anything to anybody whenever it suits him, if it furthers his single goal: to make America over in his image! n nLast, I believe the difficulty Americans are having with looking past Obama's disguise is that we actually cannot believe "this is happening here." Authoritarian demagogues? Not in America! Those kinds of politicians, like Lenin, Hitler and Mao—they don't arise in the US. Why not? Well, because they never have. Bad reasoning. n nEven George Washington warned us about guys like Obama. BTW, have any of us ever heard Barack Obama say a kind or admiring word about the Father of Our Country? Or, is Obama himself now the Father of Our Country? Which country is that? Obamaland?
Much of what you say is accurate the GOP has come to be dominated by the anti……fill in the blank. nBut, Obama isn't Lenin, this comes from Rush and Beck and .the other much more radical radio talkers, not thinkers. Power grab? I remember Beck nearly every night saying the black helicopters were coming….even said Obama was amassing a huge private army, fake false? yep! n nAuthoritarian demagogues? Did you even listen to Santoram? His group wanted complete control of everyone's private life while giving Corporations an open road to anything that would make money? nI listen to the GOP right wing and am reminded of the Taliban…not nearly as violent…but just as radical. nBy the way…it isn't the Dems who have changed and are attempting to change the rules to suppress and control voting. Or can gerrymander a state so the Dems win 55% of the vote, but just 25% of the Congressional districts. n
There is room for more tax on the affluent. But entitlements will have to be deal with. The Demo want the republican to be responsible for the losses while they will claim responsibility for the rescue.