Benjamin Netanyahu’s efforts to form a new coalition government have not been going smoothly. The prime minister’s attempt to break up the alliance between the two big winners of the last election—the centrist Yesh Atid Party’s Yair Lapid and the pro-settler Habayit Hayehudi’s Naftali Bennett—have flopped as the two have stuck to each other and their mutual support for a change in the military draft system that will compel for the first time the conscription of Haredim. Netanyahu knows he needs at least one of the two to form a government and if they stick together, he must not only take both but also agree to their demands about a reform that he appears reluctant to implement.
But as difficult as his position was until now, Netanyahu’s leverage in the talks just got even smaller thanks to another longtime antagonist. Israel TV is claiming that the White House has made clear to Netanyahu that President Obama’s long anticipated trip to Israel next month will be postponed if the prime minister does not have a new government in place by March 16. While some in Israel, where Obama remains unpopular, may not care much about the visit, Netanyahu is counting on it. That means the chances are that Lapid and Bennett will soon be signing coalition agreements on their own terms and that the ultra-Orthodox parties will be losing their ability to stymie reform.
Netanyahu is eager for the Obama visit because he views it as a perfect opportunity to help reset the strained relations between the two governments. More importantly, he’s also hoping the president will use it to make a strong statement in support of Israeli security and to re-emphasize his willingness to do whatever it takes to prevent Iran from gaining nuclear capability. Losing that visit would be a blow to his prestige and undermine his efforts to have the allies present a united front on Iran and the peace process after four-plus years of Obama’s efforts to distance the U.S. from Israel. Since dragging out the talks in what would probably be a vain try to get his way on the next coalition would probably keep Obama at home, that means that the prime minister’s already faltering attempt to split up the Lapid-Bennett tag team is now officially doomed.
Netanyahu has his own reasons for fearing both Lapid and Bennett.
He’s clearly worried about Lapid’s boasts about replacing Netanyahu in the next election and dreads having to give him the key post of foreign minister as part of the price for getting Yesh Atid’s 19 seats onto the government benches. Though they are closer on ideology, he seems to have just as much antipathy for the charismatic Bennett, who once was chief of staff and broke with Netanyahu, allegedly because of the influence of the prime minister’s wife Sara.
But with Lapid and Bennett deciding that their mutual support for a more equitable system of national service outweighs any differences on other issues, Netanyahu now has no choice but to swallow hard and have both of these would-be rivals in the Cabinet.
Obama and the two party leaders may be doing Netanyahu more of a favor than he knows. Keeping both Lapid and Bennett inside the government tent is to the prime minister’s advantage. Saddling him with responsibility for government actions also lessens Lapid’s long-term appeal as a reformer even if the foreign ministry would give him the gravitas to be a credible prime minister in the future. Moreover, achieving a real breakthrough on the question of the Haredim and the draft would be a genuine achievement for Netanyahu and burnish his legacy in his third term as Israel’s leader.
It’s important to understand the big loser here isn’t the prime minister. It’s the ultra-Orthodox who have used their disproportionate influence on the country’s political system to perpetuate an unequal burden of national service as well as to funnel huge amounts of patronage and government allocations to their institutions. Keeping Shas and United Torah Judaism out of the government will create a team of rivals in the Cabinet that worries Netanyahu, but it will enable him to do something none of his predecessors ever achieved.
Fix the strained relationship? Please. Israel will collect the trash as usual in French Hill or fix a sidewalk in Ramat Eshkol, the PA will then holler that Israel is Judaising Jerusalem and exercising sovereignty over occupied land, and the president will go on a 45 minute Joe-Biden-and-the-building-permit style rant about how it is a slap in his face and the US's face that an Israeli setllement was expanded at the very moment he was honoring Israel with his presence. n nAs far as I'm concerned, he can throw his favors in the thorns.
Yes, this is rather mystifying. How could Obama be going to Israel for any other reason than to intimidate Netanyahu and make it clear that the Israelis are not to make any move on Iran without US permission (never to be forthcoming, of course); and, in addition, to posture on the "occupation," Palestinian complaints, etc. And how could Netanyahu imagine he could come for any other reason? What greater blow to Netanyahu's prestige can there be than having to grovel before Obama, without any results?
Please. Obama was never coming to Israel. Turkey, Egypt and Iran won't let him. Though I did not expect Obama to whine about the composition of a foreign government as the excuse for that. Apparently Obama can only visit states that are ruled by single party fascist systems.
Those he yearns to emulate.
Yeah, baffling. Bibi needs Obama to make a "strong statement" on Israeli security and Iran? Sure he'll be able to take that to the bank!
Netanyahu is allowing ego to get in the way, and is quite disappointing of late. n nTrying to bring Livni in to his gov so he can avoid dealing with Lapid and Bennet? Is that not a countervention of hte mandate he was given by the voters? Israeli politics at its worst. n nAnd why for he love of God does he need Obama to visit? Does he need Obama to state even more unequivocally that an Israeli action on Iran is not permitted? n nI think he may be squandering Israel's chance to emerge from its current strategic problems. He needs less of an American leash, not more . . . n nToo smart for his own good, like Tobin said recently.
Well, Bibi has family ties with Livni through Likud-Kadima–I think he was given the mandate as a nationalist party and we can note Livni was not part of that but also Bennett is the guy who won on joining Likud-Yisrael Beiteinu and not the reverse. That Jewish Home is cross-mandated by tieing in with Lapid was Bennett's calculation that nominally heading the post-NRP religious nationalist camp while moving against the Shas-Degal Ha Tora Orthodox movements made sense. n nSo as news continues out of Israel Bibi remains reluctant to have Bennett & Lapid in the coalition on terms that squeeze out Shas and the confessional parties and put down markers restricting Likud-Yisrael Beiteinu's future course of action so that is up in the air. n nBut personally this old pooch agrees 100% with you–who needs Obama jiving around. What is this all about? Who cares? Let him stay home.
So, if Bibi fails to form the Gov. and Barry-boy goes thru with his threat, will the NYT excoriate Bibi because he DIDN'T want Barry to visit? Excoriate Bibi for being a non-compromiser? Excoriate Bibi for thinking about Israel first and America second… n'Cos excoriate Bibi they will! He can't win for losing! nI for one, and I believe that there are a million more like me here in Israel, hope that Barry-boy does cancel his visit, but, failing that, we are scuffing up old throwaway pairs of shoes and boots to give Barry's open-top Cadillac a raucous Muslim welcome as it speeds by…
I don't think there is going to be a government that includes both Likud Beytenu and "Yesh Bayit"; Yesh Bayit has nearly the amount of seats that Likud Beytenu has and such a government would be very unstable because without them there is not a Knesset majority. I predict new elections and then we will see how many voters really want Lapid as PM and not Bibi.
Sounds like a great reason for Netanyahu to NOT form a new coalition. n nContrast this new public 'diplomacy' with Obama's lovey-dovey state visit with the dictators of Burma in the middle of their ethnic cleansing of Burma's stateless muslims, the Rohyinga.
"Losing that visit would be a blow to his prestige and undermine his efforts to have the allies present a united front on Iran and the peace process after four-plus years of Obama’s efforts to distance the U.S. from Israel." n—————————– nAnd whyever would Netanyahu assume that an Obama visit would, in practice as well as even in theory, result in a united front on anything?
NYT will excoriate everybody but the far left. That is a given. nPr. O cannot afford to weaken Bibi, this would help Hamas, Hezbollah, Assad and Iran. nHe will go to the ME with a weakened position at home!!!
Your assumption that the prospective coalition will be capable of making wholesale change in ultra-orthodox society is extremely naive.As a commentary writer I presume you have some idetification with burke,as such you should realize you cannot change a deeply entrenched society overnight . Actually I think lapid bennet and netanyahu have bit offsomething larger than they can chew.