Ben Birnbaum’s thoughtful, well-reported piece on the Israeli peace process is one of those articles that can easily be interpreted as in accordance with anyone’s preexisting worldview: it’s a Rorschach. If you think Mahmoud Abbas is primarily responsible for the lack of peace, that will be confirmed by the description of Ehud Olmert practically begging him to take an incredibly generous deal and Abbas walking away. If you think Olmert is to blame for offering a peace plan on which he could not follow through simply to save his reputation as he prepared to leave office under a cloud of scandal and an approval rating close to zero, you will shake your head at the desperation he showed.
If you think Olmert and Abbas were peacemakers surrounded by petty schemers, you will not be convinced otherwise as you read of Tzipi Livni’s advisors telling Abbas not to take the deal so she could swoop in and claim the glory for herself, or by the same old mindless and manipulative game being played by “advisors” and “negotiators” on the Palestinian side who have been there forever and a day. (The Israeli names change over time, but the Palestinian names are always Mahmoud Abbas, Saeb Erekat, and Hanan Ashrawi.) So that’s the politicians; what about the people? In Israel, the people support peace, Birnbaum reports. The Palestinian people, however–that’s another story. Birnbaum chooses a delicate framing when he references a recent poll that “showed Palestinians preferred Hamas’s approach to ending the Israeli occupation over that of Abbas by a two-to-one margin.” I’m sure everyone can imagine what “Hamas’s approach” would mean, but for the record here’s the actual question from that poll (results, from left to right, are: total, in the West Bank, and in Gaza):
Given the success of Israel’s military counteroffensives against Hamas in Gaza, this is not simply a vote of no confidence. No confidence would be eight or nine steps up from where Abbas and negotiations currently rank among the Palestinians in both the West Bank and Gaza.
Though the article lays out the case that Abbas is the last chance for peace between the two peoples, it really ends up making a slightly different point: Arafat ruined his would-be country; Abbas is finishing it off for good. That’s because, as Jonathan Schanzer has reported and Birnbaum echoes here, Abbas has no successor. Hamas is waiting in the wings, which is why it may not even matter. Birnbaum went to Gaza, he said, to find the elusive moderate Hamasnik. Here is a quote from the single most moderate Hamas person he spoke to, Ahmed Yousef, when Birnbaum raised the issue of the Jews needing and deserving a safe haven:
“Go to Germany,” he replied curtly. “All the Jews of Europe should go back to their countries. Jews of the Arab world should go back to their towns and cities in the Arab world. We are ready to help them even, to prepare ships.”
Keep that in mind as we are told again and again that there are moderate, pragmatic Hamasniks who understand political reality and need only be given the chance to participate in the process. “Go to Germany” is the nicest thing Hamas has to say.
Abbas’s health is failing, Birnbaum reports, though it’s unclear how quickly. And Fatah is a mess. And Hamas is willing to let the Jews live on the condition they go back to Germany. And yet it is unclear why this is such a compelling case to sign a deal with Abbas. He appears to represent virtually no one, which means there is no one to uphold any deal after Abbas. What could such an agreement be worth, even if miraculously signed?
In fact, for those who said Olmert couldn’t possibly muster the political capital to follow through on his deal–and rightly so–what’s the argument that Abbas could follow through on his end? Sharon at least had Olmert, who tried to keep making concessions. And Olmert had Livni, who tried foolishly to oust Olmert when his back was turned but at least was willing to pick up the peacemaking mantle she attempted to pry from his hands.
Arafat could enforce an agreement, though he’d never sign one. Abbas can’t do either. Birnbaum’s piece makes clear Abbas is avoiding negotiations with Netanyahu, who American advisors told Birnbaum is much more willing to make peace than his critics say. But we already knew that. Abbas has no desire for a true, lasting peace. But we already knew that too.
You need to read the new NewRep for clues to Obama's agenda. n nBirnbaum's piece was timed to appear as an advance for the big O trip to Israel on March 20, with a hissy fit over Ariel; and 'lastchanceAbbas' hysteria: both already scripted. n nIt truly is amazing that anyone is speculating about the I/P Peace Process whilst Syria and Egypt disintegrate. Even a look at why neither Fatah nor Hamas will hold elections seems of no interest. n n n n n n n
Obama has already given PA the destroy Israel weapon that it wanted: he permitted PA to go to the UN and get status upgrade. With that PA will take Israel to the corrupt, hate-Israel International Criminal Court where PA will get the destroy Israel verdicts that it wants – just like it is getting UNESCO to declare ancient Jewish heritage sites as "Islamic". n nObama could have stopped PA from going to UN for upgrade status just like Reagan did: by threatening the end of all politcal and financial support. We know that despite words asking PA not to make the move, he was never serious about stopping PA because after PA got its upgrade he has refused to cut off funding, he has refused to close its DC office – nothing, not one sign that Obama is "upset" that PA went to the UN. n nObama is a left wing Israel destroyer. A stealthy one, but an Israel destroyer never the less.
Obama has said he intends no peace negotiations on his trip. n nFrom JPOST w/WH it''s a on the one hand on the other hand: n n"He underscored that the trip is an opportunity for him to demonstrate the United States' commitment to the Palestinian people – in the West Bank and Gaza – and to partnering with the Palestinian Authority as it continues building institutions that will be necessary to bring about a truly independent Palestinian state," a White House official said. n nObama also told them he would "reiterate America's commitment to Israel's security," the official said. n n—- n nOn the third hand the incoming coaliiton won't be negotiating anything but preliminary rounds of their domestic agendas.
I would have to guess that Obama's new tack of 'not bringing any solutions' is a political ploy in the negative for the benefit of Obama's Arab friends. Of course he can't 'bring peace' to the Palestinians because of the evil Jews you see. It's all scripted of a piece.
Abbas is a malignant joke. n nCorrupt, illegitimate, AND genocidal. Quite the piece of work. n nHis only redeeming quality is that he is incompetent at anything except lining his family's pockets – and that is only because of the truckloads of cash Europe, the US, and Israel funnel his way to keep him where he is.
what peace process? n nAbbas is succeeding in delaying-doing nothing-encouraging violence- and blaming Israel, and somehow convincing the world that the problem is ISrael n nIt is a play acted out in front of cameras, to complicit media, with almost every NGO and UN comittee as supporting arab backdrop n nwhich has succeeded in convincing most of the world, that Israel is illigitimate and apartheid regime and responsible for countless arab displacement and death n nand that Jews all over the world are more evil than the H man n nthe best that can happen is a longish hudna, misinterpreted by the west as 'peace' n nJust like Turkey had a longish period of a somewhat secular democratic government, but islam always trumps n nShould Abbas make peace wirh Israel, he would be dead man walking n nthe malignant joke is watching the Israeli actors Livni, Olmert and Dayan and others, falling all over themsleves to betray for their own political gain n nand maybe the sad hope that hatred of Jews and ISrael will sometimes end
The so called Palestinians will never make peace with an infidel state. They could do no other as their primary allegiance is to Quran, Hadith, and Sira.
Soon or later the Youssef and other Hamashniks will be for a surprise. Wait & See.