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Unsatisfactory Cease-Fire Won’t Doom Bibi

Even before his acceptance of cease-fire terms that brought down criticism him on his head from across Israel’s political spectrum, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s popularity had dropped precipitately from the across-the-board backing he received at the height of the fighting in Gaza. But those thinking that dissatisfaction with his acceptance of what amounts to a draw with Hamas will hasten the end of the current government or cut short his time in office are mistaken. The choices facing Netanyahu’s critics are as constrained as those that were facing the prime minister when he swallowed hard and allowed Hamas to issue bogus boasts of victory today.

The big drop in Netanyahu’s popularity in a poll published yesterday indicated unhappiness with the reality that Israel faced in Gaza. Netanyahu’s decision to scale back offensive operations against Hamas weeks ago after the Israel Defense Forces destroyed the tunnels it had found was not rewarded with an end to the fighting. The massive missile barrage from Hamas in the last week that caused two civilian deaths was seen as a setback for Netanyahu’s policy of restraint.

Though international public opinion blasted Israel for hitting Hamas targets hard and causing civilian casualties in Gaza, Netanyahu’s public understood that his attempts to avoid a massive escalation in the fighting until he was dragged into it by Hamas attacks was the result of his trademark cautious behavior. But taking out the tunnels didn’t end the rocket attacks or undermine Hamas’s hold on Gaza. With his right-wing coalition allies calling for a re-occupation of Gaza in order to enforce the demilitarization of the strip that Israel needs to really ensure calm, Netanyahu finds himself branded as a right-winger abroad but also denounced as a centrist temporizer at home by many of his erstwhile allies.

The unhappy truth about the conflict is that nothing short of an all-out war to eliminate Hamas will guarantee that Israel won’t face another round of fighting anytime the Islamists choose to up the ante in the conflict. It’s also true that so long as Hamas is still left in charge there, any talk of a two-state solution in the West Bank is also effectively shelved. Despite his threats of going back to the United Nations to force Israel to withdraw from the West Bank without a peace treaty, the fighting demonstrated anew the irrelevance of Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas. Even if Israelis were willing to believe Abbas is a credible peace partner—a dubious assumption even in the best of times—no Israeli government of any political stripe would ever give up that more strategic territory so long as there was a chance that it would mean another, larger and more dangerous Hamasistan on the country’s doorstep.

Abbas survives in the West Bank solely due to Israeli security protections for him. The notion that the PA can parachute into Gaza and ensure that construction materials aren’t used to build Hamas tunnels or to prevent it from bringing in more arms is ludicrous. Notwithstanding the promises of the United States and other sponsors of the cease-fire, the only thing it guarantees is that Israel will soon be facing another conflict with Hamas under perhaps less favorable circumstances than those that exist today.

But those who are blasting Netanyahu for his cowardice today must also realize that a decision to deal with Hamas once and for a while would incur a higher price than most Israelis are currently willing to pay, including many of those grumbling today about the prime minister’s choice. Taking down the Islamists would certainly cost the IDF hundreds of lives and result in thousands more Palestinian casualties, not to mention increasing Israel’s diplomatic isolation and worsening the already tense relations with the Obama administration. And that’s not even considering the cost of being forced to reassume the administration of Gaza and dealing with what would almost certainly be an ongoing terror campaign by Hamas and other Islamist groups.

Would it have been worth it? It’s easy to answer that question in the abstract since answering yes provides the only logical path to a better chance of calm as well as to a two-state solution. But Netanyahu can hardly be blamed for hesitating to pay such an egregious price in blood and treasure.

Nor should anyone imagine that this dismal result will — poll numbers withstanding — result in the collapse of Netanyahu’s government or a new election in the short term that might produce a new prime minister. There is no reason to believe that Netanyahu’s rivals on the right will be so foolish as to leave the Cabinet since that will leave the path open for the prime minister to assemble a new, more centrist government. Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman and Economics Minister Naftali Bennett will continue sniping at Netanyahu and will score points with their own followers as well as Likud voters who are disappointed that the prime minister won’t follow his own arguments about Hamas to their logical conclusion. But beyond venting their spleen at him, the PM’s right-wing critics have few options.

Just as important, nothing that has happened this summer altered the basic equation of Israeli politics of the last few years. For all of the grousing thrown in his direction, which is in part the function of dissatisfaction with the choices facing the country and the prime minister’s personal unpopularity, Netanyahu’s positions represent a clear consensus of Israeli public opinion. As much as most Israelis would be happy to be rid of most of the West Bank, few believe it makes sense to leave it in the absence of a Palestinian decision to end the conflict that Hamas’s survival makes impossible.

Even more to the point, no one either in the government or outside it emerged this summer as a credible alternative to Netanyahu. He remains the only possible choice for prime minister even if few people like him and even fewer are happy with the alternatives he must choose between.

Those who would like Israel to have easy answers to an ongoing security threat—whether by accepting more concessions or by taking out Hamas—are dissatisfied with Netanyahu. That’s a group that includes most Israelis. But at the same time most Israelis also understand that his answers are probably the lesser of a number of possible evils.

Even if Hamas really does observe this cease-fire, the coming months will be rough for the prime minister. But talk about re-occupying Gaza or a bold stroke that will make peace possible is just that: talk. The reality of the Middle East is such that Netanyahu’s unsavory choices are the only viable ones for a nation whose only real option remains doing what it must to ensure its survival until the day when its enemies are prepared to make peace. As such, the unheroic and cautious Netanyahu is still the only realistic choice to go on leading Israel for the foreseeable future.


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7 Responses to “Unsatisfactory Cease-Fire Won’t Doom Bibi”

  1. MARK HEIMAN says:

    But Jon those aren’t the only choices – Bibi should have refused to beg Hamas for a truce and agreeing to its terms. Instead he should have cut power and stopped all supplies to Gaza, while continuing to react to any rocket fire by killing the Hamas heads and their families, as he had been doing. In other words, prosecute a war with an enemy, not beg the terrorists to stop shooting while feeding them. Then perhaps after some time Bibi could negotiate a “truce” in which the enemy could not claim to have changed the status quo ante, which indeed was a win. Rather Hamas would have suffered huge losses and IT had to beg for the status quo ante, rather than Israel doing so. While this obviously would result in international condemnation, the kangaroo court is already set up anyway and Israel may as well face the docket with some small victory.

    • JACK LEVEY says:

      And then how long until the next FAA ban on flying to Israel, the next State Department shut down of its embassy in Tel Aviv (but not its consulate in Jerusalem, where it serves Arabs and refuses to serve Jews), and hte next presidential roadblock on resuplly of arms?

  2. DAVID SCHIMEL says:

    I suspect that Bibi is remaining focused on the main, imminent threat to Israel, namely Iran. The clock is ticking now that Iran is months(?)away from achieving nuclear threshold status. He knows that Obama will not prevent this from happening; if anything, Obama is probably facilitating it by his obtuse policy of negotiating with Iran. Israel will have to deal with this sooner rather than later and IT CANNOT BE TIED DOWN IN A SERIOUS WAR ON OR REOCCUPATION OF GAZA that will only complicate the necessary action to be taken against Iran. But Bibi cannot publicly suggest this in order not to put Iran on a higher than ever level of alert.

    • MIKE BATTERMAN says:

      Davidnhas nailed it. I wonder how anyone can fault the logic of his analysis…..the threat from the south (hamas) to be launched along withe terror to the north (hezbollah) both to be used by Iran to preoccupy Israel in case of an attack upon it’s nuclear facilities is now defunct. The main target is now isolated and far more vulnerible to the IDF. Moreover, the attitudes of the Sunni neighbors have now hardeneed and will be evr more tacit allies rather than vicious enemies.
      Did Bibi accomplish that withou Gaza Waterloo? Sure. Does it matter all of that much? Hell no!

  3. EMILE TUBIANA says:

    Dear Mr Jonathan S. Tobin, your analysis about today’s situation as it looks now is very logic, but in life we know that the next day brings new situations and unexpected new solutions. Let’s wait until tomorrow to see what life will bring us or will bring to Netanyahu. I survived a few wars and each one was different from the other and had always surprised me.

  4. DAVID STERNE says:

    Mr. Tobin, I think that you are somewhat behind the times in your estimation of the Israeli public. If there ever was a majority for the so-called 2-state solution, it was never more than a razor thin majority, and certainly today it is a minority. Your assumptions that there is an Israeli majority for a second state are contradicted by latest polls and by the elections themselves, which demonstrate a growing skepticism that there is any “partner for peace” and that therefore any such theoretical “state” is not viable. Couple that with the growing nationalistic/religious camp (fully one third of the Knesset is shomer Shabbat, which does not mean that they are opposed to “2 states,” but there is certainly a correlation, and the same is true of the population at large). I think you need to catch up on your statistics and acknowledge that the “times they are a-changing…”

  5. EMILE TUBIANA says:

    Israelis in general love to criticize. Democracy in the United States of Obama, as many claim it exists, is losing its values. When we have a president who does whatever he wants, without presenting it to Congress and by failing to respect the Constitution – for me, I see this as a dictatorship. As for Israel it is the opposite of the United States. There is a democracy there, even a too broad one. Today the Israeli left has great freedom and sometimes plays a detrimental role, as did Shimon Peres when he convinced Rabin to sign the treaty with the Palestinians. At that time, a few Americans from Columbia University had rigged the whole system and asked Arafat to simply answer “yes” to questions. This was to convince President Bush, the father that Arafat had said yes. But in reality it was Arafat who had tricked everybody, as he had no intention of honoring any agreement with Israel. When Bush the son became president, he had finally confirmed this when he said that Arafat was lying.

    As for Bibi Netanyahu, at the moment he is only wise, honest and competent man, and he comes from a great family, since he and his brother were officers of honor and their father was loving Israel. I think Netanyahu will be reelected; he is the only one who is multilingual and knowledgeable about the American mentality to be a good Prime Minister and a good interlocutor.

    It was not necessary to sacrifice more young Israelis for an even more prolonged war. I think he had done well to accept the cease-fire, knowing that he gave nothing else to Hamas and that Hamas was well decimated. Besides, all of Israel’s wars were short. None of them has seen the Arabs raise their hands. They all ended with a cease-fire. So Netanyahu has not found it necessary to extend the war that would have made even more Israeli deaths.

    Let’s have some time pass with peace and quiet and we will all see how the Palestinians of Gaza will realize their true situation. Qatar too is going to realize it had made a grave mistake by supporting Hamas and taking advantage of the presence of the American army at home. I think this whole Gaza and Palestine episode was the pure fault of our President Obama who thought to restore his prestige in trying to help Hamas and Qatar. Soon Israel will surprise its enemies.




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