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Bibi, Guerrilla Warfare, and Public Opinion

The Israeli public appears to be unhappy with the ceasefire agreement that Prime Minister Netanyahu has reached with Hamas. According to one poll, his public backing for the handling of the Gaza crisis has dropped from 82 percent at the height of the fighting to just 38 percent today. Meanwhile support for more hardline members of the cabinet such as Economy Minister Naftali Bennett has surged. The common cry of critics of the ceasefire is that Netanyahu is making a big mistake by not seeking “victory,” defined as the eradication of Hamas.

But as Jonathan Tobin and other realists have pointed out, the cost of seeking victory is simply too high for the Israeli public to stomach. Sure, Israelis may want to wipe out Hamas; who doesn’t? But once they saw what it actually took to accomplish that objective, they would likely turn against the military operation just as they previously turned against the 1982 invasion of Lebanon which was designed to eradicate the PLO. Or as the American public turned against wars in Vietnam and Iraq and Afghanistan.

As Haviv Rettig Gur argues in the Times of Israel, part of the problem is a mismatch between general Western, including Israeli, conceptions of what war should be like and what war is actually like most of the time. Quoting the great military historian Victor Davis Hanson, Gur notes “that for 2,500 years, democracies have held to a particular view of wars as brief, decisive, winner-takes-all confrontations between like-minded opponents.” Yet the IDF has been denied such a decisive battle with a regular enemy force since the end of the Yom Kippur War. “Defeated on those decisive battlefields,” Gur notes, “Arab opponents of Israel have turned to new arenas, to the very terror, guerrilla and irregular tactics that Israelis consider immoral and cowardly.”

Yet whatever the morality of guerrilla tactics, as a practical matter they are much harder to defeat than a conventional attack–as the U.S. discovered in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq and as Israel has learned in Lebanon, the West Bank, and Gaza Strip, and as both the governments of Iraq and Syria are now learning. While it’s easy to say that the IDF should “defeat” or “destroy ” Hamas, actually accomplishing this task would involve a painful and protracted occupation of the Gaza Strip that few Israelis want to undertake. Gur writes: “The IDF believes it could take years to ‘pacify’ such a crowded, politically hostile territory, at the cost of hundreds of IDF dead and untold thousands of Palestinian dead, massive international opprobrium, and vast drains on the IDF’s manpower and financial resources that could limit its operational flexibility on other dangerous fronts, especially Syria-Lebanon and Iran.”

As a practical matter, moreover, Israel would be hard-pressed to wage such a conflict over the opposition of President Obama who would surely try to punish Israel by denying its request for more armaments and possibly by refusing to veto anti-Israel resolutions at the United Nations.

Such a war might still be well-advised if Hamas were an existential threat, but it’s not. Despite all of the rockets it rained on Israel, Hamas thankfully managed to kill few Israelis.

Netanyahu’s judgment clearly is that a ceasefire which restores the status quo ante bellum is the best Israel can do right now, and he is surely right. That is not satisfying for those who hunger for an idyllic version of war in which the bad guys surrender after being bombed for a few days, but it is line with the complex reality of irregular war as it has been waged over the centuries.


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2 Responses to “Bibi, Guerrilla Warfare, and Public Opinion”

  1. BINYAMIN LACHKAR says:

    “Sure, Israelis may want to wipe out Hamas; who doesn’t? But once they saw what it actually took to accomplish that objective, they would likely turn against the military operation just as they previously turned against the 1982 invasion of Lebanon which was designed to eradicate the PLO. ”

    Allow me to disagree. Hamas is no Vietnam or Lebanon. According to many military experts, it would take only a few days to conner all of the Gaza strip if we wanted. The IDF estimations for casualties are around 500 but it seems very clear that they have been inflated by 2 or 3.
    The Israeli public would be ready to endure this price if this means eradicate Hamas.
    The real reason Bibi and the IDF did not want to do it has very little to do with the price in human lives but more with what to do after. They mainly want clam and go back to the former status quo, they do not want to change anything. That’s why Bibi did not try to destroy Hamas, he did not want.

  2. IAN LANE says:

    Mr. Boot presents a compelling, but I believe ultimately obscure, and therefore not convincing, argument. Cognizant of the conventional wisdom that one must understand history so as not to repeat it, I do not think that the current situation in Gaza is sufficiently similar to prior conflicts such that the people of Israel “would likely turn against the military operation just as they previously turned against the 1982 invasion of Lebanon”. In ’82 the Israeli’s had not made such dramatic and concrete concessions to their enemy for peace. When the Oslo agreement was reached I was convinced, not that it would lead to peace, but that it would lead to support for Israel’s necessary self-defense to come. I was very much wrong about that, and perhaps like many people of good will and peace, I have come to the conclusion that nothing other than an unambiguous victory for Israel will end this conflict. Yes, it will be a bloody, painful, costly and long tragedy to engage Hamas to the point of victory – to say nothing of the difficult 30-50 subsequent years during which Israel will have to administer the Gaza territory itself or find the so far elusive “moderate Palestinian” leader who genuinely wants Peace and coexistence with Israel, but if recent history has taught us anything, it has taught us that we have no choice.




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