As many have noted, Hillary’s best moment last night was her answer to the final question. What crisis had she faced and how did she handle it? Did anyone notice she reran her husband’s key pitch in numerous debates and speeches from 1992? Almost word for word, she opined that the hits she’s taken are nothing compared to the pain of ordinary people everyday across America. Back then, Bill was making up a phony “recession gap,” but Hillary perfectly linked it to the suffering of our veterans, eliciting sympathy for them and her simultaneously.
This is the essence of the early Clinton magic, making it seem all about her and not about her at the same time. Clearly, the applause for her was genuine, while Obama’s less than inspiring answer to the same question only underscored concerns if there’s a there there.

On the other hand, Republicans better take note that Obama is a jiujitsu master. In almost every answer, whether warranted or not, he indirectly and directly attacked Hillary or McCain. In answer to his $90 million dollars worth of earmarks–well, the real issue is John McCain’s support for a war costing us billions a month, that’s why we have budget deficits. Hillary, too, got pounded again and again, and failed to counterpunch. It may have made her seem the more sober of the two candidates, but Obama’s style is take-no-prisoners aggressive
wrapped in a velvet glove. He’ll work the body repeatedly, until his opponent is fatigued. McCain can’t afford to let him gain the advantage with that tactic, and will need to hit back early, often, and just as fluidly.

News that a 38-year old U.S. Marine Staff Sergeant had raped a 14-year old Okinawa girl over the weekend ripped open barely healed wounds from the last time such a tragic crime took place. Back then, in 1995, three Marines were charged with raping a 12-year old, and the resulting political earthquake led directly to decisions to relocate key U.S. bases, change the status of forces agreement, and ultimately consider removing Marines from the island. Since then, local politics has bogged down agreements to lessen the burden of the U.S. military presence on the Okinawan people, but the end goal has long been clear: moving almost all Marines to Guam by the middle of the next decade.

Now, however, all those timelines, and agreements, are at risk. The Marine has been handed over to Japanese authorities, but the political damage is just beginning. Prime Minister Fukuda called the rape “unforgivable” and Foreign Minister Komura was quoted to the effect that the Japanese people have “had enough” of suffering crimes at the hands of American troops. U.S. officials have been apologizing, but the ball really remains in the court of Japanese public opinion. Okinawan activists will seize on this as a way to get the Marines off the island more quickly than has been agreed, and if not handled deftly, the State Department may find itself bailing water out of a sinking rowboat. One key problem: Guam isn’t nearly ready for the 8,000 Marines and roughly 9,000 dependents who would be deposited there. n the other hand, all the plans for shifting bases within Japan, an unsatisfactory solution for the long term in Japanese eyes, are still wallowing in political bickering.

The real problem, of course, is what effect this will have on trust and good-feeling between Japan and America. Knocking U.S.-Japan ties off their stride is just what Pyongyang would like to see, and even Beijing might be happy with some tension between the allies–just enough to divert our energies more into alliance management and less into strategic planning for Asia’s future.

If, like me, you are waiting to eat in Beijing’s first kosher restaurant—opened in anticipation of hordes of Jewish spectators at the Olympics—you probably hope a kosher kitchen is the answer to China’s food safety problems. Come to think of it, the Japanese might hope so, too. Last night’s news in Japan was dominated by a report that at least 10 people had fallen ill after eating pesticide-laced frozen pork dumplings manufactured in China. The news was unclear whether the pesticide was found inside the dumplings themselves, or saturated the inside of the bag in which they were shipped.

As is the case in Japan, this new “threat” to the country has immediately involved the highest levels, with the Minister of Health, Labor, and Welfare stating that more needs to be known about the conditions in the Chinese factory that made the dumplings, while executives of the import company that distributed the tainted food flew immediately to China to seek answers. Japanese news stations also traveled to the factory and interviewed local folk who stated that the pork coming out the factory was “not bad.” The news also noted that nearly all the factory’s workers live on the grounds, as is becoming common in factory towns around China. No reaction was given from Chinese officials, but to their credit they did not bar Japanese television crews from filming.

Japan has had its own share of food safety scandals lately, but nothing I’m aware of that includes poisons (rather it’s the mundane variety of re-labeling expired products or using expired ingredients—no one has become sick, as far as I know). What this does show is that China’s vast food export market is still very lightly supervised, and as its exports designed for human consumption grow by leaps and bounds, we are more and more likely to see repeated stories of unsafe products, illnesses, and possibly worse. China will be facing pressures on multiple fronts across the world, and how it reacts will tell us a great deal about the type of global player it is going to be. Meanwhile, make mine hummus.

UPDATE: By the time the Japanese import company’s official arrived, Chinese officials had removed all traces of material from the particular production line and claimed that they found no pesticide in the factory.  It is unclear if they have chosen to stonewall, but the dumplings of course came in sealed packages.

Japan may no longer be the next great superpower, but its traditional culture remains one of the world’s great treasures. Next time you’re in Tokyo with a few days to kill, get off the beaten path and head off to some of the spots most foreign tourists miss:

1. Izumo Taisha: The second main Shinto shrine in Japan, located in Izumo City, Shimane Prefecture on the less-developed Japan Sea side of the main island of Honshu. The shrine of Okuninushi no Mikoto, the nephew of the Sun Goddess, it is perhaps the perfect Japanese expression of architecture’s communion with nature. It is also where Japan’s 8 million gods gather during the tenth month of the lunar calendar (roughly October or early November). Unlike Ise Shrine, dedicated to the Sun Goddess herself, Izumo is still steeped in the raw power of the western clans that ultimately subordinated themselves to the emerging Japanese imperial family in the 3rd-4th centuries C.E..

2. Kinosaki: The place where Japanese go for hot springs, especially in the winter. Located on the Japan Sea, Kinosaki is a charming city of traditional inns, many with their own hot springs, bisected by a picturesque canal. Be sure to go when it’s snowing, and to plod through the streets in traditional wooden clogs, wearing just a thin kimono while hopping from hot spring to hot spring. Afterwards, you can indulge in a huge feast back in your inn (don’t stay in a modern hotel). A short drive takes you to the Japan Sea, where you can stand on cliffs and gaze out towards the continent that has been entwined with Japanese history for millennia.

3. Mt. Takachiho: Kyushu, the southernmost island in Japan, is where the Sun Goddess sent her grandson to begin conquering the divine land, according to the Japanese myths. He descended to earth at Mt. Takachiho, located roughly on the border between Kagoshima and Miyazaki prefectures in the south of the island. You can climb it in about two to three hours taking one of two paths, and at the summit will reach the Shinto shrine marking his arrival. The views are stunning, including a crater lake in the extinct volcano you climb on the way up, and not far away are some of Japan’s best hot springs (look for one called “Tengoku” or Heaven—though I haven’t visited for years and can’t tell you where it is).

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As expected, former Seoul mayor and Hyundai executive Lee Myung-bak seems handily to have won yesterday’s South Korean presidential election. Exit polls have him at between 40 and 50 percent of the three-man race. This is good news for South Korea, Asia, and the United States. Lee is not only an experienced businessman and politician, he is likely to bring a more realistic approach to Korean affairs, warm up relations with the U.S., and perhaps even take South Korea onto new paths of international involvement. For now, Lee has promised a “747″ strategy: achieve 7 percent annual growth, increase South Korea’s per capita income to US$40,000, and put the country in the top 7 nations worldwide in terms of GDP.

Especially audacious is Lee’s income doubling plan (currently South Korea’s per capita income is around US$20,000), and it harks to former Japanese Prime Minister Ikeda Hayato’s income doubling policy of the 1960’s, which put Japan on the road to economic superpower status. With a growing asset bubble around Seoul, corruption in the state and among private enterprises, and rising income inequality, Lee has his work cut out for him. But in bringing clarity to his political platform, he has given South Koreans a road map for moving forward.

Equally importantly, this is the moment for the U.S. to take advantage of having an ally in Seoul. The past decade of rule by presidents Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun has seen a near-collapse in U.S.-South Korean political relations. Both Kim and Roh pursued active engagement with Pyongyang, and most South Koreans saw nothing emerge from the policy except a nuclear North Korea. Lee has indicated that any further engagement with Kim Jong-Il depends on the North’s living up to the promises it has already made. This should give Washington an excuse to re-evaluate its policy of bending every deadline in the Six Party Talks in Pyongyang’s favor. Washington also has a unique chance to rethink the military reform projects put in place over the past several years, and to consider delaying the dissolution of the highly successful Combined Forces Command, a reform opposed by an overwhelming majority of South Korean uniformed officers.

Now is also the time to encourage South Korea to think about a larger role in East Asia, starting with improving relations with Japan, perhaps within a new trilateral arrangement spearheaded by the United States. The Japanese more forthrightly will have to address lingering historical issues to Seoul’s satisfaction, but the two should be natural partners in promoting democracy, free markets, and human rights in Asia. This should become a priority of the Bush administration in its remaining months. Yesterday’s election is a rare piece of good news in a region that needs it desperately.

Whatever the reason for the Chinese refusal to let nine U.S. Navy ships dock in Hong Kong, one casualty of the “misunderstanding” has been U.S. credibility in Asia. Nations throughout the region watched the events closely, not least of all because the U.S. Navy, and the Kitty Hawk in particular, is the most visible symbol of America’s commitment to stability in the Pacific.

A number of my Asia-wonk acquaintances in Washington have expressed their concern that Washington is sending a signal of weakness by making no response to the Chinese provocations (sailing the fleet back through the Taiwan Straits doesn’t quite cut it)—even canceling some meetings would have been seen as something. Most concerning to them is that this seems to be part of a trend, as Washington has let go by in virtual silence the Chinese anti-satellite test in January, the surfacing of a Chinese sub near the Kitty Hawk earlier this year, and reports of Chinese hacking into Pentagon computers, all in the context of a massive Chinese military buildup this decade.

The White House may not want to roil the waters, so to speak, with China, and thinks that quiet diplomacy is the way to nudge the Chinese back to acceptable behavior. But our Asian allies see it at least partly in a different light. They worry that the U.S. is allowing China unilaterally to change the norms of accepted maritime behavior in the region, and since all of them depend on sea lanes of communication for their survival, any indication that the U.S. is losing its will is of potentially major strategic concern. It is of less interest to them whether the incidents arose from a clear Chinese policy or miscommunication between the PLA military and the political leadership in Beijing. Their focus was on our response, or lack thereof.

How many more “misunderstandings” have to occur before nations in the region consider it in their interests to begin thinking about band-wagoning with China? Push some knowledgeable people here in D.C. a bit and the response is unsettling.

It’s seven months late, but we shouldn’t let 2007 pass without noting that it marks a milestone in American Jewish history. Although the first Jews came to New Amsterdam in 1654, it wasn’t until three years later that one of them, Asser Levy, was accorded the rights and status of a burgher, or citizen, of the colony. This year, then, marks the 350th anniversary, not just of the Jewish arrival in a new land, certainly something that had happened many times in the past, but of a much more meaningful passage: into nascent citizenhood, civil protection, and permanence of the Jewish presence in the New World.

Levy, all but forgotten today, was one of 23 Jews who arrived on September 7, 1654 on the bark St. Charles, carrying refugees fleeing Dutch Brazil, which had just been retaken by the Portuguese. Not wanting to run the risk of the New World’s Inquisition, having already escaped the Old World’s, the Jews were on their way back to Holland, where Levy apparently was from originally (his full surname was Levy van Swellem). Captured by pirates and rescued by a French privateer, the penniless Jews were brought to New Amsterdam, where Peter Stuyvesant immediately tried to have them expelled. The Directors of the Dutch West India Company, so the story goes, refused Stuyvesant’s demand, not out of mercy, but because many wealthy Dutch Jews were stockholders in the Company. (This was a lesson not lost on the new Jewish settlers about the importance of self-interest and property.)

The real test, however, started the following year, when Levy, a trader, petitioned to stand guard in the colony, one of the marks of being a burgher. Stuyvesant had excluded Jews from this privilege, and added injury to insult by fining them monthly for their exemption. Levy’s initial petition was rejected, but records later indicate he was permitted to do guard-duty. Soon after, Levy found his ability to trade goods limited by a decree that a “burgher right” was required. He duly petitioned, and after again being denied, appealed to the Company’s Director General. On April 21, 1657, a decree was issued that Jews in New Amsterdam should be admitted as burghers, equal in rights to the Dutch (though they were not allowed to form a religious congregation until nearly a century later). Seven years later, when the English took over New Amsterdam, the civil rights of Jews were upheld.

Levy was a trailblazer, and it is a shame he has been forgotten by those who owe him much. It appears he was the first licensed Jewish butcher (and a kosher one, at that, being exempted from killing hogs) and tavern owner, not to mention litigant in scores of cases. More importantly, Levy was likely the first Jew to own property in America, first in Albany, in 1661, and the following year in New Amsterdam itself, on what is now South William Street (just a stone’s throw from the headquarters of Goldman Sachs, appropriately). But it was Levy’s fight for citizenship 350 years ago that truly marked the beginnings of Jewish settlement in America, which is a date worth celebrating.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe so far has defied predictions of his imminent political demise. Refusing to take the traditional Japanese path and accept responsibility for his party’s crushing defeat in parliamentary elections last month, he has instead forged a new cabinet of the leading politicians in his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). His bold tactic, however, may well make it even harder for him to govern, thus hastening the end of his premiership.

Abe’s party lost the last election due in no small part to scandals among his ministers. Today’s news brings word of yet two more resignations, these from a Cabinet not two weeks old. Abe’s tactic was to turn around his team and forge ahead on important domestic and foreign issues, but the opposition party will certainly push as hard as possible for early elections that would likely further weaken the LDP.

Most importantly, the presence of LDP heavyweights, including former foreign and defense ministers, has the potential both to dilute policy-making and neutralize Abe’s primacy. He will have to navigate among a group of experienced, equally ambitious leaders, who have been brought in precisely because Abe couldn’t deliver the first time around. Former Foreign Minister Taro Aso, moved from the Foreign Ministry to Secretary General of the LDP, has already made clear his intent to try to succeed Abe. The tendency toward lowest-common-denominator politics after the roller coaster years of Koizumi and the first Abe cabinet may naturally assert itself.

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More than six decades after the end of World War II, Asia continues to grapple with the legacy of war. Unlike in Europe, where countries have attempted to create a new set of norms and institutions designed to link them ever more closely together, Asia in many ways seems stuck in history, revisiting old wounds and squabbling over the same territory. In his compelling new history of the aftermath of war in the Pacific, In the Ruins of Empire: The Japanese Surrender and the Battle for Postwar Asia (Random House, $27.95), Ronald Spector argues that the region’s future was largely determined in the year after the Japanese surrender, and was doomed primarily by the misguided and unrealistic attempts of the victorious Western allies to impose order on the chaos unleashed by Japan’s surrender and abandonment of its occupied territories. Washington spent much of the cold war dealing with the resulting instability.

Certainly in comparison to Europe, postwar Asia seemed almost incomprehensibly complex. Moreover, as Washington grappled with creating a pax Americana, Asia appeared less strategically important than Europe, in part because nothing like the specter of all-out conflagration hung over the region, and in part due to the absence of ethnic connection to the Atlantic world. And yet at the same time, while the cold war certainly affected Asia, causing extensive destruction in Korea, Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia, the region’s nations were spared Europe’s draining twilight struggle.

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