Good Bad News from Iran
- 06.28.2007 - 11:27 AMGood news from Iran. The Associated Press reports that “Iranians smashed shop windows and set fire to a dozen gas stations in the capital Wednesday, angered by the sudden start of a fuel rationing system that threatens to further increase the unpopularity of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.” Why is this good news? Because it reveals the unpopularity of the theocratic dictatorship in Tehran, and its vulnerability to pressure.
As the AP article goes on to note: “The rationing is part of a government attempt to reduce the $10 billion it spends each year to import fuel that is then sold to Iranian drivers at less than cost, to keep prices low. Iran is one of the world’s biggest oil producers, but it doesn’t have enough refineries, so it must import more than 50 percent of the gasoline its people use.”
That’s a point of leverage that various analysts have suggested exploiting. In the pages of COMMENTARY, Arthur Herman argued for (among other things) imposing a naval blockade to stop the gasoline imports and oil exports that are the lifeblood of the Iranian economy. In USA Today this week, Peter Schweizer of the Hoover Institution suggested not only imposing a blockade, but also counterfeiting Iranian currency to drive its economy deeper into crisis.
Those may seem like radical steps. But they are in fact amply justified by Iran’s continuing development of nuclear weapons and its support for terrorists in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Iraq, and Afghanistan, among other places. Iranian proxies have been killing Americans in both Afghanistan and Iraq, and yet we have been looking the other way for fear of seeming too “warlike.” Even if we don’t have the political will to meet Iranian attacks with military force—and we don’t at this point—we could still try to make the Iranian government pay a price for its aggression. An embargo would be one way to do it. It’s an act of war, but not as extreme as air strikes.
Even if we’re not prepared to go that far yet, greater economic sanctions could have an impact given another fact noted in the AP story: “Iran’s government is seeking $12 billion in investments to boost refining capacity from 1.6 million barrels a day to 2.9 million barrels in the next five years. It also hopes to increase oil production to 5.3 million barrels a day by 2014, from the current 4.3 million.” If the U.S. could convince other countries in Europe and Asia to join our boycott of Iran, the investment that the mullahs need to buy off their own people might not be forthcoming.
That’s the intent of the Iran Counter-Proliferation Act, a bill sponsored by Representative Tom Lantos, which just passed in the House Foreign Affairs Committee by a vote of 37-1. Among other things, it would end the President’s authority to waive penalties under existing sanctions laws on companies that do business with Iran. (This waiver authority has been used to let European firms off the hook.) Unfortunately, the Bush administration, which talks tough on Iran, opposes this genuinely tough legislation.
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June 28th, 2007 at 12:40 PM
Considering the general level of cleverness and effectiveness of Congressional involvement in foreign affairs, Administration opposition to any reduction in its prerogatives is probably wise.
June 28th, 2007 at 1:20 PM
On the contrary, I think this is one case where Congress knows better (and Lantos is usually pretty solid on these matters — other than Pelosi’s pilgrimage to Syria). Since 2006, the administration seems to have lost the urge to be aggressive on anything, other than issues meant to tick off their own supporters.
June 29th, 2007 at 10:07 AM
” ‘Iranians smashed shop windows and set fire to a dozen gas stations in the capital Wednesday, angered by the sudden start of a fuel rationing system that threatens to further increase the unpopularity of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.’ Why is this good news? Because it reveals the unpopularity of the theocratic dictatorship in Tehran, and its vulnerability to pressure. ”
You are attributing greater meaning to this than I think there really is.
They are, “smash[ing] shop windows and set[ing] fire to a dozen gas stations…” because they are angry about the rationing and obvious potential for price increases.
If they were seriously ticked off at their gov’t they’d be smashing the windows and setting fire to gov’t buildings.
Think about it.
June 29th, 2007 at 5:50 PM
Here is a few notes on the article:
As an Iranian-American I should say that the comments and suggestions of blockade, airstrike, and other such are inhumane and irresponsible at best. Bloodshed and destruction in Iraq seems to not bother those who propose fire power. This is a measure of level of humanity and decency, and lack of knowledge of the region and its issues. At the worst of the human sufferings of the peoples, the politicians will continue to live in their palaces and mansions. Sanctions and blockades will only prolong the sufferings.
The government of Iran will only be changed by its people if they have the means to do it.
The allegations of crimes committed by the mullahs are coming from the CIA? What is the credibility of these sources? Have you forgotten Sadam’s WMD? Yellow powder from Africa? Our President did not get good intelligence, it seems.
I am in no way supporting a theocratic government just as we see the effect of it here in this adminstration.
The government of Iran is trying to steer the economy towards some balance, but it is unlikely that they can continue. From an economic point of view, the government decision to control gasolne consumption is plausible, but the weak economy is incapable of providing an alternative source of income for the people who work in transportation services.
If the mullahs were smarter, they would come out and say we will recognize and normalize relations with Israel and then we would not hear one word about Iran anymore.
July 1st, 2007 at 1:19 AM
I agree with Mr. Safabakhsh. Punishing the ordinary man in Iran with such economic actions will no more weaken the government than it did Saddam Hussein’s. Counterfeiting currency? Blockades?
I think congress is right, we ought use the full or near-full force of our multi-trillion-dollar economy, which does more foreign business than ever before, to let them know how we feel about their behavior in the world. Punishing any company that does or ever intends to do business with the U.S. or our allies, making them really consider the cost-benefit of doing business in Iran v. in the U.S., seems sufficient. That, and time.
Reportedly, the youth of Iran are not as radical as the elders. Stupid policies such as this rationing cannot engender much respect or warm “I wanna grow up to be just like the mullah” feelings in the youth. Their responses aren’t a sign of imminent revolt, but when the middle class begins to feel the government is dumber than they, their will is for change. Time may be on our side. It does the most work in this world anyhow, let’s just let it bring about what it may. The specious logic behind all these arguments and rationales of our foreign policy, “if we do A, B should happen,” are disturbing for a scientist like myself - no one seems to be doing their homework, and the motivations are all too emotional, pugnacious, vengeful or reactionary. Finally, hey, support or at least consider Ron Paul for President. To paraphrase C.S. Lewis, no plans of ours will ever “fix” this world - many good men have become evil in efforts to make ideals reality.
July 2nd, 2007 at 6:52 AM
It is interesting that Mr. Safabakhsh calls even suggestions of airstrikes or a blockade “inhumane.” Yet he–who, significantly, calls himself an “Iranian-American”–says nothing about the six hundred or more Americans, servicemen and civilians alike, the illegitimate gang of war criminals in Tehran has murdered in terrorist attacks since 1979. His eagerness to apologize for this vile regime reveals what sort of American he is.
He recites the canned references to Iraqi WMD and yellowcake as a shorthand way to imply the Mr. Bush was wrong to invade Iraq. By doing this, he adds himself to the other thoughtless millions the U.S. unfortunately now contains. Finding thoughtful analysis too difficult or boring, they take a page from Goebbels’ book, repeating slogans so often they come to see them as self-evident truths. The thinking this process involves is about as substantial as the bumper stickers from which, I suspect, Mr. Safabakhsh and other like-minded “Americans” learn whatever they think they know about these subjects.
Fact: There is sound evidence (from British intelliegence, as Mr. Bush said) that Iraqi agents repeatedly tried to buy the refined uranium ore called yellowcake, not only in Niger, but also in several other African countries. There is equally sound evidence, from the head of one of the weapons inspection teams in Iraq, that it evaded inspection of a dryer essential in producing weaponized anthrax and then took it to Syria just before expelling the inspectors.
And the silly insult that America also is run by a theocracy reveals an ignorance of American government so profound that it is shocking Mr. Safabakhsh could be a U.S. citizen, if in fact he is. A pack of criminals has chosen to wage covert war against the U.S., starting with its unprovoked actions at the U.S. Embassy in 1979. The armed entry there was an invasion of U.S. territory, an act of war; and taking U.S.citizens hostage was the first in a litany of war crimes. In questioning whether these swine have committed crimes, Mr. Safabakhsh again is either disingenuous or stunningly ignorant, or, as an “Iranian-American,” he may not care that Iran murders U.S. soldiers. The list of crimes is long and thoroughly documented, and this information is available to anyone who wants to know it.
Since late December, U.S. forces have captured many Iranian intelligence agents in Iraq, along with documents that reveal the scope of Iran’s covert operations there. To cite one of many examples, Al Qods force agents trained and financed the men who, on Jan. 10, disguised in American uniforms, seized four American soldiers in Karbala. They drove the captives away, stopped by the road, dragged them out in their handcuffs, murdered them, and escaped in a following vehicle. These abductors, Mr. Safabakhsh, committed sabotage and murder–both grave war crimes. The U.S. found fingerprints on the SUV they left behind, These were matched to a man named al-Dulaimi, and from documents captured in a raid in Sadr City in May, the U.S. learned what he looked like and where he had gone. U.S. Special Forces tracked him there and killed him.
It is almost funny to watch the Iranian forces testing missiles and preparing their defenses. They seem to have no idea what the U.S. Navy and Air Force can do to Iran, and how quickly–but I suspect they are about to find out. And they would be wise not to retaliate, because the U.S. would probably respond with even harsher actions.