Nouri al-Maliki has proved to be a stronger and more unifying prime minister of Iraq than many had predicted. But if he has an Achilles heel, it is his tendency to claim exaggerated prowess for the Iraqi Security Forces and to underestimate, at least in public, the degree to which they need American help. Last year, in a Washington Post op-ed, I noted his long history of overconfident predictions about when his army and police forces would be ready to take over security on their own. For instance:

In October 2006, when violence was spinning out of control, Maliki declared that it would be “only a matter of months” before his security forces could “take over the security portfolio entirely and keep some multinational forces only in a supporting role.”

The pattern continues to the present day, with tragic consequences. The multiple bombings that killed more than 100 people in Baghdad last week were at least partially the result of Maliki’s overly hasty decision to start taking down concrete barriers in Baghdad and his unwillingness to call in American military help. Indications are also emerging about complicity in the bombings by some security personnel—the very people the prime minister has been counting on. Maliki has rightly been excoriated by Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari:

Zebari said Maliki’s administration got ahead of itself, focusing on luring foreign investors while the country remains far from able to handle security.

“In all their statements, they call foreign companies to come and invest in Iraq,” he said. “So if people see ministries targeted and residents slaughtered in the streets, where is that security?”

The good news is that the Iraqi Security Forces are becoming more capable. Their performance is finally starting to catch up with Maliki’s rhetoric—but a gap still remains. In most of the country, they have no problem maintaining security with only a little U.S. help. But in Baghdad and parts of northern Iraq—areas that remain extremely dangerous—they clearly need more American help. The fact that Maliki decided to stop taking down concrete barriers in Baghdad indicates he is not wholly cut off from reality. I only hope he is able to swallow his pride and also ask the U.S. armed forces to assume a slightly greater role in working with Iraqi forces to avert future disasters.

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This entry was posted on Monday, August 24th, 2009 at 2:54 PM and is filed under Contentions. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Responses are currently closed, but you can trackback from your own site.