What Iran Truly Fears
- 01.18.2008 - 2:16 PMYesterday, Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that the “criminal regime” of Israel “would not dare attack Iran.” Why? “It knows that any attack on Iranian territories would prompt a fierce response.” Ahmadinejad also says he is not worried about the United States. Hostile talk, the fiery leader noted, is just campaign rhetoric “aimed at American domestic consumption as they need it in the upcoming presidential elections.”
Why are we hearing war talk from Tehran at this moment? After all, the United States is merely pursuing a peaceful course of action, pushing the Security Council to enact a third set of sanctions for Iran’s failure to stop the enrichment of uranium. Washington can count on Germany’s support, but it is meeting increasingly stiff resistance where it counts.
Russia, by giving the cold shoulder to Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni in Moscow yesterday, signaled that it will not vote in favor of a new round of coercive measures. For its part, China hosted Americans and Iranians in Beijing in the last few days and ended up siding with the latter. Yesterday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said, “We hope that the international community will intensify diplomatic efforts to break the deadlock for an early resumption of talks so that the issue will be solved in a comprehensive, lasting and proper manner.” Today, Saeed Jalili, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, was more direct. “On the Iranian nuclear issue, China and Iran have a similar stance,” he crowed after meeting with his Chinese counterparts.
On Tuesday, the five veto-wielding members will meet in Berlin to discuss new sanctions, but there will be no satisfactory outcome, especially because Chinese and Russian diplomats are repeating their almost word-for-word calls for more useless talks. These cynical pleas for additional negotiations, which would give the mullahs more time to develop their weapons, show that the Iranians have now neutralized the United Nations. Even if the Security Council should come up with new sanctions in the months ahead, we can be sure that they will be totally ineffective.
So let’s start connecting the dots, if I may borrow a phrase from Gabriel Schoenfeld. The Iranians are not worried about Washington’s diplomatic initiatives. They must realize that the only thing that can stop their nuclear program at this moment is military action. That’s why Iranian fast boats challenged the U.S. Navy earlier this month in the Strait of Hormuz—to remind Washington and the international community of the price of war. And that’s why Ahmadinejad said that neither Israel nor the United States would attack. The Iranians, I believe, wish to prevent the one thing they cannot control and truly fear.
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January 18th, 2008 at 2:44 PM
How different is this than the pre-war scenario prior to the Iraq invasion? Then, China and Russia dragged their feet at the UNSC while feeding armament to Saddam.
January 18th, 2008 at 3:11 PM
In spite of all this, I believe a military operation would be folly. It would be far more difficult than anticipated, likely escalate, and in the end fail to achieve its objective. This, I believe, is the truth. I wish it were otherwise and that we could follow the Chinese toward a “diplomatic solution” to the problem. But that option does not exist either.
January 18th, 2008 at 3:20 PM
“They must realize that the only thing that can stop their nuclear program at this moment is military action.”
George W. Bush must bomb Iran before the dishonest pacifist Democrats possibly take over the White House. The situation with Iran is only getting worse. Democrats will find one phony reason after another not to take military action. It is now in their DNA. They are the party of George McGovern even if they adamantly deny it. This is especially the case when our country is threatened by a Third World “victim.”
January 18th, 2008 at 3:29 PM
A nuclear armed Iran can give nuke material to terrorists, arm their missiles which maybe already reach Europe, arm their friends in South and Central America, and shut down oil shipments from the Middle East (after doubling the price for awhile). If the US doesn’t stop them we might have to submit.
January 18th, 2008 at 4:44 PM
Air power has been a persistent delusion, having a particular appeal to civilians, every since Giulio Douhet published Command of the Air in 1921. Douhet’s vision of a war won from the air has never come close to being vindicated–not in World War II (study the actual effects of bombing campaigns, which are well documented), not in Korea or Vietnam, not in Desert Storm (which was not won) and certainly not in Iraq. Iran is a huge country and ground forces would have to be used. Even so, and assuming they could even be landed in sufficient number, and supplied, I doubt they would find the actual nuclear program. Given some warning could we conceal nuclear weapons, etc. in New York City so that even an occupying army would not be able to find them? I think almost certainly yes. The Iranians are quite capable of doing the same. Indeed I suspect that is exactly what they are doing now.
Thanks to the Chinese and others the Iranians have excellent anti-ship missiles, pop-up mines, etc. which give them, I believe, the ability to close the straits of Hormuz. That would lead to an instant collapse of oil supplies and with it, I suspect, a collapse of Our European Allies or whoever else we had gotten to go along. In any case, try to think through what would happen if we bombed Iran. Give me a scenario where we succeed in achieving our goal, which is their nuclear disarmament. I have thought long and hard and cannot come up with one.
That being the case, better not to act than to act and actually BE DEFEATED.
January 18th, 2008 at 7:25 PM
It is Iran’s sovereign right to pursue whatever weapons it sees fit. Maybe that’s not in the best interest of the USA, but that does not give the USA or any other country the moral right to bomb Iran. In other words, LEAVE THEM ALONE, BUSH!
January 18th, 2008 at 7:51 PM
It is Iran’s sovereign right to pursue whatever weapons it sees fit. Maybe that’s not in the best interest of the USA, but that does not give the USA or any other country the moral right to bomb Iran. In other words, LEAVE THEM ALONE, BUSH
Absolute idiocy. President Bush said that we will not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons. He was and is correct. Fighting against the global Islamic jihad , whether Shia or Sunni is the calling of our generation.
January 18th, 2008 at 7:52 PM
“… the United States is merely pursuing a peaceful course of action, pushing the Security Council to enact a third set of sanctions…”
Twisted must be your thinking to consider sanctions to be “peaceful”. Sanctions are an aggressive, even though not violent, means to intimidate a nation (or person.) Also, to say “merely” is to leave out the counter-regime operations that we have taken, as intimated even by some Presidential candidates.
The United States is checkmated with respect to Iran, if one desires an actually positive outcome. Any action has negative to catastrophic consequences. Perhaps if we had a time machine and could go back 40 years in order to change our policy in Iran then we would have more constructive options today. However, given the lack of said time machine all we are left with are a selection of unpleasant choices today.
War mongering (on Iran) is emerging as a popular pastime among “true conservatives” (as they like to describe themselves.) It seems folly to me to believe that we can truly make positive, long lasting changes by constantly threatening a nation with bombing. If we never act then we appear as a toothless tiger. If we do act (and bomb away) it is more likely that we will spawn further hatred of the US.
January 18th, 2008 at 8:13 PM
What “should be” is one thing, what “likely will be” is another.
All things considered, I don’t see the U.S. taking any direct military action against Iran. We have been out manuavered.
January 18th, 2008 at 9:07 PM
eric, I think it’s important to note that Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and, as a consequence, has no right to pursue or possess nuclear weapons.