Our Next Message to Beijing
- 03.26.2008 - 4:33 PMToday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry expressed “serious concern and strong dissatisfaction” with a mistaken shipment of American military parts to Taiwan. It then urged the United States to report the details to Beijing so as to eliminate “severe consequences.” The Taiwanese had requested replacement battery packs for their American-made helicopters. Instead, they received four nose-cone fuse assemblies used to trigger nuclear weapons.
The sharp Chinese reaction came after yesterday’s Pentagon announcement that the Defense Logistics Agency had made the incorrect shipment to Taiwan in August 2006. The Taiwanese had noticed the mistake and contacted U.S. authorities in early 2007, yet it was only last Thursday before anyone in the Defense Department realized what had actually been sent. Defense Secretary Gates and President Bush were informed on Friday.
“Our policy on Taiwan arms sales has not changed,” said Ryan Henry, principal deputy undersecretary of defense for policy, yesterday. “This specific incident was an error in process only, and is not indicative of our policies, which remain unchanged.”
But should they remain unchanged? Many argue that, if we want to make sure there is no war in the Taiwan Strait, we should help the Taiwanese build a bomb or, better yet, just give them a few weapons in order to create a stable balance of terror with China. Moreover, some believe that the threat to arm Taiwan and Japan would be the most effective way to get Beijing to stop supporting the nuclear weapons programs of North Korea and Iran.
These proposals, despite apparent advantages, do not represent sound policy choices, at least at this moment. For one thing, both would be clear violations of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, the global pact that in fact prevents the spread of nukes. Yet if we don’t disarm Kim Jong Il and stop Iran’s “atomic ayatollahs” now, we will undoubtedly see the rapid dispersion of nuclear weapons soon. As Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, has noted, about forty nations have the capability to develop the bomb within a decade.
The primary reason that prevents them from doing so is the so-called “nuclear taboo,” which is reinforced by the nonproliferation treaty. Once weapons technology starts to spread to dangerous states, however, other nations will have no choice but to accumulate atomic arsenals to defend themselves. When that happens, the nonproliferation agreement will become a dead letter. Some analysts, like Kenneth Waltz, think the world could be more stable then, but I know it will be worse. Things cannot get better when tyrants, terrorists, and thugs will be able to bring on Armageddon.
So what should we now say to the angry Chinese? Today, we should confirm that the shipment to Taiwan was an error. Tomorrow, the message may be different. If the Chinese continue to prevent us from disarming North Korea and stopping Iran, we should say that our next transfer of warhead mechanisms to the Taiwanese will not be a mistake.
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March 26th, 2008 at 7:10 PM
“Many argue that, if we want to make sure there is no war in the Taiwan Strait, we should help the Taiwanese build a bomb or, better yet, just give them a few weapons in order to create a stable balance of terror with China. Moreover, some believe that the threat to arm Taiwan and Japan would be the most effective way to get Beijing to stop supporting the nuclear weapons programs of North Korea and Iran.”
does the phrase “pick your fights’ mean anything to you guys?
what has china done to you?
and remeber: china hold a trillion of our t bills. they OWN us.
you want to risk a confrontation with them over FORMOSA?
March 26th, 2008 at 8:25 PM
I believe there is a zero-risk method of getting China to reform its policies. We in the West— especially reporters, writers, and politicians—should start writing about the Mao-made famine of 1959-61, the worst in human history. Young Chinese people don’t know about it. Those old enough to remember believe that it was caused by crop failure. If we, here, talked about how farmers were forced to melt their tools in backyard furnaces, and if we, here, talked about how China exported grain during the famine, the news would get to China. Despite China’s censorship, people there know more about what is said in America than people here in America know about what is said in China.
We, here, could point out that Communism always leads to famine. Most people in the world think of Marxism as a philosophy that cares for the poor. it doesn’t. It creates starvation. It does so because it believes that human nature has to be changed so that the state can wither away. A philosophy that rejects human beings the way they are will always dismiss the value of of human life. If we say it here, the Chinese will understand us. And then, the Communist Party will collapse.
March 26th, 2008 at 8:35 PM
“We should say that our next transfer of warhead mechanisms to the Taiwanese will not be a mistake.”
I agree. I just wish President Bush would publicly deride the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s empty threat. Those totalitarian phonies shouldn’t be allowed to save face.
March 26th, 2008 at 9:13 PM
lester, the way I see it, China picked this fight, we did not. I think that running away is not a responsible option.
Also, China doesn’t “own” us. Beijing has threatened to dump its Treasuries before. It is an empty threat. I have posted on this topic. See this: http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/chang/774
March 26th, 2008 at 9:13 PM
lester, What has the Chinese done to us? They’ve actively tried to block us in the UN Security Council on countless votes. Their intransigence has made it virtually impossible to do anything about North Korean nukes - mostly so North Korea remains a thorn in the side of the USA. They (with the Russians) stand in the way of any meaningful action against Iran and their nuke program. They’re involved heavily in industrial espionage of US firms. They readily permit the theft of intellectual property. They keep their currency at artificial levels to the benefit of their economy and the detriment of ours. Shall I go on? For all this and more, we should confront them, not appease them.
And as for the Chinese owning a trillion in t bills, I don’t see them having us over a barrell to the extent that you seem to think. If they did something outrageous like invade Taiwan, what’s to stop us from saying that we’re just gonna keep that trillion dollars. Tell the Chinese that a Taiwan invasion is going to cost them a trillion dollars and they might think twice about it. They’re not the only ones with leverage here. Also, China needs us more than we need them. They need the American market. If we were prevent the Chinese from selling their products here, their economy would quite likely collapse. If they go over the line and invade Taiwan, we’ll just slap a 150% tarriff on all Chinese imports. It’d sting for some consumers here, but we could grind through it. The Chinese couldn’t.
March 26th, 2008 at 9:15 PM
George, your comments on Marxism and famine are spot on. Unfortunately, people in the West just seem to forget. You are right to remind us of this. Thank you.
March 26th, 2008 at 9:22 PM
Rininger, I agree that we should make it our policy to unmask every totalitarian state.
I don’t see the point of trying to be nice to autocrats. They do not appreciate displays of friendship. They see them as signs of weakness. On the other hand, they respect strength.
Thanks.
March 26th, 2008 at 9:24 PM
Lester asks whether we want to risk a nuclear confrontation over “FORMOSA”–obviously a territory of no importance except as home to its twenty three million people, lighthouse of democracy for China (Dubya no less) and strategic key to Asia.
The Taiwan military could probably deploy nuclear weapons in six months if necessary. They are very close with the Japanese, who understand what constitutes a common interest. They have indigenous missiles now deployed that would sink an invasion fleet.
We should support them for reasons of morality and of strategy. But if the going gets really tough, they will have their own decisive weapons. The Chinese may be able to use nuclear threats to scare us out of defending Taiwan or even Japan. But they will not be able to scare the Taiwanese or the Japanese out of defending themselves.
March 26th, 2008 at 9:26 PM
Ritchie, to back up your point, in 2007 China’s overall trade surplus was US$262 billion. Of that amount, US$256 billion was attributable to the United States. The Chinese economy, therefore, is built upon exporting to us. It is a misconception that we need them more than they need us.
The stability of the modern Chinese state depends on prosperity, and that prosperity depends in large measure on access to our markets, capital, and technology.
March 26th, 2008 at 9:27 PM
@ Gordo & George
Guys, three out of four Chinese here in Beijing know the Communist Party is a bunch of evil tyrants. They also know that the Chinese are doing better economically and socially now than they have since the Tang Dynasty. We’re not in a hermetically sealed bubble over here, despite Western Corporate Media’s efforts to paint us that way.