Sadr on the Wane
- 03.10.2008 - 12:10 PMAt last Friday’s noon prayers (and in a subsequent statement on his website), Shi’ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr admitted that his influence over Iraqis is on the wane. Sadr’s Mahdi Army had wreaked havoc on Iraq during the country’s initial post-Saddam phase, killing non-Shi’ites and fomenting anti-American chaos. Now, in the face of increased national unity and a continued desire for calm, he’s been forced to recognize his growing irrelevance.
Best of all, in acknowledging his marginalization, Sadr cites the very things the war in Iraq was meant to provide for Iraqi citizens: freedom and prosperity. He said, “Many persons who are close to me have split for materialistic reasons or for wanting to be independent, and this was one of the reasons behind my absence.” The best reasons I can imagine.
In Sadr’s statement, we’re seeing the militant Shia analog of al Qaeda’s (inadvertent) admission of an operational meltdown last year. In November, during a raid north of Baghdad, U.S. forces seized documents in which al Qaeda leaders ranted about being in a state of “extraordinary crisis” due to the anti-terrorism efforts of Sunni Awakening groups. Hearing admissions of Islamist defeat in stereo, as it were, from extremist Sunni and Shia elements, is very promising. As the violent fringe withers away, the Iraqi center continues to step up and forge a path towards legitimate statehood. However, recognition of Iraqi progress from al Qaeda and Muqtada al-Sadr raises a question: When will our own Democratic leaders acknowledge the same?
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March 10th, 2008 at 1:16 PM
When will our own Democratic leaders acknowledge the same?
When John McCain beats them, perhaps.
March 10th, 2008 at 1:22 PM
Or when it facilitates their efforts to take credit for “ending the war.”
March 10th, 2008 at 4:53 PM
“When” …
amazed it’s taken this long, though CK has most of it …
as soon as they think they can take credit for it.
March 10th, 2008 at 5:04 PM
To remind you again of the chronology:
Most of 2007: Surge happens. Fails to reduce violence. Iraq in 2007, despite General David Petraeus’s false claims that things are getting better, remains more violent than at comparable periods in 2006.
September 2007: Violence drops in Iraq due to Sadr declaring a cease-fire.
March 2008: As violence increases again in Iraq, Bush cultists point to Sadr’s despair as some kind of good sign even though Sadr basically gets to decide what the violence levels in Iraq are.
I don’t like Sadr but I sort of understand his depression; the fact that his cease-fire is being used to justify the failed surge, and therefore the U.S. presence that is fueling the civil war, must be depressing. He has a choice: either end the cease-fire and cause the civil war to get worse, or continue the cease-fire and give the Americans an excuse to pretend that the “surge is working” and therefore they must stay.
The best thing, of course, would be to use Sadr’s cease fire as an excuse for a U.S. withdrawal. But since Bush is committed to American defeat (”defeat” being defined here as keeping the Iraqi civil war going forever), that will never happen.
March 10th, 2008 at 7:17 PM
AlQuaeda “documents”. If they are what we have been told then they would not be writing documents esp the navel gazing kind. Does not compute.
March 10th, 2008 at 11:06 PM
T.B.,
your pasted chronology is about as accurate as astrology.
This is just another blow against those who are invested in America’s defeat. You people have been announcing that defeat for five years now. It still hasn’t materialized for you. Your constant carping is growing fainter and fainter. Soon, you’ll have to switch to claiming credit for victory, as CK and BD noted.
Poor baby.
March 12th, 2008 at 1:35 AM
“Most of 2007: Surge happens. Fails to reduce violence.”
This is false. The troops were not in place until about July 1. Implementation of the strategy you call the surge started in July and was not fully implemented until late August. It was expected that American casualty figures would increase through the fall due to more engagement by more American forces. Here are the figures for American military deaths in Iraq, including non-combat deaths:
2-2008 29
1-2008 40
12-2007 23
11-2007 37
10-2007 38
9-2007 65
8-2007 84
7-2007 78
6-2007 101
5-2007 126
Also, Sadr fled and declared a cease-fire to save his troops’ lives, hoping for a strong return later. That hasn’t worked out for him since the new strategy took Sadr’s expected strategy into account.
You need a better argument, T.B., the one you posted above makes you look foolish.
March 12th, 2008 at 10:23 AM
[…] Ist Sadr intellektuell offener für Realität als der Westen? At last Friday’s noon prayers (and in a subsequent statement on his website), Shi’ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr admitted that his influence over Iraqis is on the wane. […]