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Jennifer, all those numbers you just quoted, along with everything else coming down the pike, bring home a very hard reality: Barack Obama is going to have to work hard to lose this election.
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May 13th, 2008 at 11:23 AM
McCain needs to have and project a plausible, practical vision and contrast that with Obama’s implausible, impractical vision.
May 13th, 2008 at 11:26 AM
I keep coming back to this: john kerry was a terrible candidate and even with that he came very close to winning in 04. We’ve had 4 more years of war and other problems since then translation “things” are even worse.
Obama is thusfar an excellent candidate with some baggage, but still miles ahead of kerry.
Mcain, if not exactly likebush, ispretty close and represnets the status quo. the one 82% of america is not happy with apparently.
so bottom line: if a trainwreck like kerry can almost win, obama can likely win
May 13th, 2008 at 11:32 AM
The odds are solidly against “Barry” Obama. Shelby Steele explains it well. At the end of the day, America is not ready to elect a radical left-wing “man of color.” A center-right presidential candidate would easily win. John McCain should be encouraged by his present polling numbers. Most people don’t attention to politics until after Labor Day. Folks like us are statistical weirdos. Obama will have much to worry about once the “unwashed masses” start paying attention.
May 13th, 2008 at 11:37 AM
Nothing personal, JPod, but weren’t you pushing the “no way HRC can be stopped” meme about 10 months ago?
May 13th, 2008 at 11:58 AM
If the Republican loses in today’s Mississippi runoff for a Congressional seat–long held by a Republican with past substantial support for Bush–then I predict there will be almost no way for McCain to overcome the handicap the Republican brand will be in November.
May 13th, 2008 at 1:44 PM
lester: John Kerry was indeed a terrible candidate (it’s refreshing to hear a liberal acknowledge that, rather than the usual claim that he just ran a bad campaign). But in many ways Obama’s worse–he has absolutely no record on which to run. Which would be fine if he were running against an incumbent where he simply had to present himself as a plausible alternative, but he’s running against McCain, who has a strong public image built up by the MSM for the past decade as the anti-Bush Maverick (thanks, guys!) AND has a long record of experience AND has an awe-inspiring personal bio. And for President, Americans always vote for the more conservative candidate. All those people who voted for Heath Shuler in 2006 (or voted D in the recent special elections in LA & MS) ain’t gonna vote for Obama over McCain. If the Dems had nominated Edwards, they’d be sitting pretty. With Obama, not so much.
May 13th, 2008 at 2:24 PM
Look, it’s not even as bad as David Thompson writes. It’s not that Americans will vote against Obama because he’s black - it’s that they’re lying to pollsters now because they want to appear enlightened by supporting a black man for president. There is a HUGE observer bias going on here. Further, the impact of that bias is being amplified by the leftist tendencies of Democrat primary voters who are voting for Obama because he’s a lefty.
When it comes time for mainstream America to vote in November, Obama is going to be demolished. It won’t even be close. And if there’s broad chaos or a general meltdown at the convention in Denver, he’ll turn out like Mondale in ‘84.
May 13th, 2008 at 2:30 PM
Brian, I agree with you. I just can’t see all the doomsaying about the unstoppable candidacy of a guy whose greatest political achievement is defeating Alan Keyes, and has yet to be tested in a campaign where the other guy, y’know, *disagrees* with him on policy occasionally? (And I’m not counting the crap about whose incomprehensible health care plan that won’t pass anyway is more “universal” here.)
As far as I can tell, every time he’s actually had to face tough questions, he’s looked awful. And while he’s generally got the MSM eating out of his hand, is it possible to go through an entire general election campaign for president without actually answering real questions occasionally?
And can the Obama cultists sustain a fervor for their messiah until November, or will many of them be distracted by other bright shiny objects between now and then?
May 13th, 2008 at 2:39 PM
One challenge is to break through Obama’s veneer of cool reason at every opportunity, even as the media try to insulate him in a protective cocoon. This persona makes him potentially more electable than the more overtly snooty Kerry.
May 13th, 2008 at 3:54 PM
Bob -
Good luck with that. I’m a supporter of Obama’s and I’ve been amazed at how cool he remains under pressure. With the “kitchen sink (and all other household applicances)” thrown at him in March/April he never once so much as raised his voice. I’m not sure it’s a veneer. It looks more like it’s who he is.
And, yes, Kerry was a ridiculous candidate. Wrong on too many levels to count. But Obama has the issues on his side. Pay attention to gas prices over the course of the summer. That’ll have a big effect on swing voters. If they continue to rise and continue to drive up the costs of goods, Obama could campaign from the basketball court and still win.