- Commentary - http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs -
Live and Let Weaponize
Posted By Shmuel Rosner On February 13, 2009 @ 7:46 AM In Contentions | 9 Comments
On the plus side, the U.S. intelligence community can acknowledge a foolish mistake and reverse its position when necessary. As Emanuele explained [1] yesterday, the outrageous NIE report [2] on Iran from last year has finally found its way [3] into the dustbin [4]. And now it’s official:
[R]etired admiral Mike McConnell, later said it had been a mistake to make public the key judgements of the intelligence assessment because it suggested Iran was no longer pursuing nuclear weapons. Asked about it at a Senate hearing, Blair acknowledged it was a difficult question to deal with in a public setting. “I can say at this point that Iran is clearly developing all the components of a deliverable nuclear weapons program — fissionable material, nuclear weaponizing capability and the means to deliver it,” he said.
The problem is President Obama’s national intelligence director, Admiral Dennis Blair, didn’t promise much in his annual threat assessment to Congress. Will Iran’s program be stopped? It’s not up to the international community – or to America – to decide whether Iran develops nuclear weapons or not, Blair explained. It’s up to Iran. And while nobody wants Iran to go nuclear, Blair can’t say if international effort (and “engagement”) has any chance of advancing this cause: “Whether they take it all the way to nuclear weapons and become a nuclear power will depend a great deal on their own internal decisions,” he said.
Internal decisions – namely the outcome of Iran’s election? Blair didn’t say. But even in the event that Muhammad Khatami becomes Iran’s president, it’s hard to imagine a change of heart on the nuclear issue – as even the most enthusiastic cheerleaders of the so-called reformist leader will admit [5]. As Blair put it:
They are, to be sure, a hard people to deal with, suspicious of others (the Americans and British once staged a coup against a duly elected Iranian president), and prickly about their pride. They want a nuclear program and, quite likely, a nuclear weapon, and there isn’t much that will stop them.
And that’s just a subtle way of saying that we shouldn’t try too hard.
Article printed from Commentary: http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs
URL to article: http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/rosner/54672
URLs in this post:
[1] explained: http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/ottolenghi/54612
[2] outrageous NIE report: http://www.slate.com/id/2179713/
[3] found its way: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5h9aJCtqyZAOM3qeuQvgkaY-6MvQg
[4] dustbin: http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/washingtondc/la-fg-usiran12-2009feb12,0,3478184.story
[5] admit: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20090213.COSIMP13/TPStory/National
Click here to print.
9 Comments To "Live and Let Weaponize"
#1 Comment By Seth Halpern On February 13, 2009 @ 9:06 AM
So when Barry said a nuclear Iran was “unacceptable” he was lying. Again. And when Hillary threatened to “obliterate” Iran if it ever nuked Israel, she was (as I commented at the time) implicitly foregoing preemption for deterrence. And when Gates mused about creating “leverage” last fall he was basically just spinning windmills in his fertile imagination. And presumably this is just more of the faculty seminar that is our present government?
#2 Pingback By The “Iran is complicated” argument « The Realist On February 13, 2009 @ 9:51 AM
[...] in abstract debate amid gathering danger, and serves merely as an excuse, as opposed to a reason, for doing nothing. Possibly related posts: (automatically generated)Solar Power in IranA Coalition of the Willing on [...]
#3 Comment By wdriver On February 13, 2009 @ 11:15 AM
At least Blair gets to the heart of the question of whether Iran can be ‘talked and negotiated’ of foregoing the Bomb. It’s up to them, and like other nations with the expertise to do so, they will develop a nuclear capability without a doubt. I know this, you know this, and Israel knows this.
Talk is cheap and comical in a devilish way. Why do we persist in our belief that we can come to agreement with dissimilar nations with their own priorities and goals. Our blind reliance on this belief is why history in any given time repeats itself in thought and deed.
Iran – unless it is stopped by force – will get the Bomb. There I’ve said it, now let’s stop the meaningless debate.
#4 Comment By Grantman On February 13, 2009 @ 12:11 PM
I’m starting a contest: Which city will get a dirty bomb first?
I say dirty bomb because from what I understand, having fissionable material is “the easy part.” Delivering it accurately is another quantum leap, recent satellite launch notwithstanding. It’s also much more deniable if someone carries it out on a tanker/container ship and into a port somewhere. Or overland.
Any takers?
#5 Comment By Bob Miller On February 13, 2009 @ 1:24 PM
This administration will find a way to do nothing about this with or without any assessment, data, or whatever, until it understands that the developments in Iran also threaten vital US interests in the short term (that is, Obama’s term in office).
#6 Comment By Dan On February 13, 2009 @ 1:53 PM
The Navy brass is the most problematic when it comes to actually stopping the Iranians.
#7 Comment By provoter On February 13, 2009 @ 2:52 PM
But the u-turn on the NIE report is no problem from a public awareness standpoint, because all the major media trumpeted it in big, bold, above-the-fold headlines, right? Same show-stopping treatment they gave the original announcement last year, right?
Now you’ll excuse me whilst I attempt to pry tongue out of cheek…
#8 Comment By LHB On February 13, 2009 @ 3:04 PM
Sticks and stones will break my bones but names will never hurt me. For too many diplomats, that doesn’t apply to Iranian Islamists.
No one ever accepts Israeli actions by saying Israelis are “prickly about their pride”. Maybe Israelis are not supposed to feel hurt when someone promises to wipe them off the planet or send them back to the ovens. And yet, even with all the provocation, Israeli leaders don’t promote hatred of those who want to kill them. Israeli leaders even go so far as failing to defend children in Sderot so that they won’t be accused of provoking those who are already committed to destroying their people and already launching rockets to do so. But accused Israel is. Lieberman proposes a policy that is essentially the same as that proffered by Rabin and accepted by Arafat (exchange of territory) and is excoriated as a bigot. Ahmandinejad and Khameni call for a UN member nation to be destroyed and deny the Holocaust and are excused for having pride. Good let Obama’s diplomats assuage Khameni’s pride. Then Obama’s supporters will might feel a little embarrassed at continuing to make that excuse Iran’s mullahs continue their terrorism.
#9 Pingback By The NIE is Dead « Theoptimisticconservative’s Blog On February 14, 2009 @ 6:36 PM
[...] number of commentators, like Shmuel Rosner at Commentary’s contentions blog, have picked up on the tacit move of the Obama administration [...]