Obama Doesn’t Have A “Jewish Problem.” Really.
- 03.26.2008 - 5:15 PMBarack Obama has no imperfection or shortcoming that can’t be glossed over by liberal pundits. The latest gloss: he has no Jewish problem and all this “guilt by association” is terribly imprecise and unfair.
You see, Obama is not responsible for Reverend Wright or Tony McPeak. But what about Samantha Power, Zbigniew Brzezinski, and Robert Malley? Isn’t it reasonable to ask “Why does Barack Obama have so many foreign policy and national security advisers whose statements about Israel and American Jews are problematic? ” Apparently we should not hold him responsible for selecting these individuals, nor attribute any of their views to him. And we shouldn’t be bothered either, I suppose, by his own comment that “nobody is suffering more than the Palestinian people.”
The evidence that none of this matters? A Gallup poll showing Obama and Clinton splitting the Jewish vote. Others have pointed out that this does not tell us whether Jewish general election voters, given the choice between John McCain and Obama, will stick with the latter.
While it is correct that Jewish voters have favored Democrats in presidential elections, the GOP share of the Jewish vote has risen steadily. Will American Jews stick by a Democratic candidate who surrounds himself with the type of advisors Obama has, who feels unable to reject his pastor even after vile anti-Semitic remarks become known (and still insists his remarks are no big deal, apparently because the really objectionable ones only number “five or six”), and whose foreign policy embraces the notion of meeting with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad? We’ll get a hint with the primary in Pennsylvania, a state with a significant number of Jewish voters (5% in the hotly contested 2006 Senate race).
But everything is fine, perfectly fine, say the liberal media Obamaphiles. (And the Italian vote isn’t a problem, either.)
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March 26th, 2008 at 5:21 PM
Polls of people who identify as Jews are notoriously inaccurate. Phone surveys always overrepresent the liberal and assimmilated population and underrepresent or exclude the more religious, especially the orthodox who tend to hang up the phone. So, beware of any statistic about Jewish public opinion.
I would tend to trust exit polls more, because the pollster is actually looking at real live human beings who can’t selectively chose to hang up the phone. The exit polls from a number of states, especially NY and NJ, which are critical for the Democrats to win, showed a huge margin of support for Hillary against Obama, by 25-30 points, in the primary.
This kind of tells you where the sentiment lies, and for obvious reasons as your piece points out Jennifer. There are just too many people in Obama’s life who hate Israel and hate Jews. It can’t be a statistical fluke.
March 26th, 2008 at 5:49 PM
Here is another line of argument Hillary can use to win the superdelegates, and it is this.
Which candidate — Obama or Clinton — will cuase the least number of Democratic defeats further down the ticket?
IMHO, I can see congressional candidates shying away from Clinton, but running away like mad from B. Hussein Obama.
And don’t think that such calculations aren’t already being made by the party establishment. It’s one thing not to win the presidency, but it’s another entirely to lose congressional seats, especially when the Congress is so evenly divided.
What do you guys think?
March 26th, 2008 at 6:27 PM
“[N]obody is suffering more than the Palestinian people.”
A sentiment shared by Paul Wolfowitz, BTW, at a rally for Israel right after 9/11.
As a Jew, I get the fact that we need to be extra sensitive about the people who may purport to speak for our potential leaders. But enough vetting of choice statements may end up limiting the pool of advisors that our candidates may use.
Remember as well that McCain associates with James “F**k the Jews” Baker. Is this going to scare off the majority of Commentary readers? And the alternative, Hillary, hugged Arafats wife at the same speech in which she went into a typical antisemitic screed.
I agree with Leon Wieseltier; maybe we should all just take a deep breath. And maybe some Xanax, if that’s your thing.
March 26th, 2008 at 7:05 PM
wil all due respect this is a bunch of politically correct NONSENSE.
grow up, miss Rubin
this is an election race not a sociology class. the only onee who sees obama as an anti semite see anti semetism in anything they don’t like.
March 26th, 2008 at 7:07 PM
The linked table of the estimated Jewish vote in past POTUS elections does not bear out the assertion that the GOP share of the Jewish vote has been “ris[ing] steadily.” For the last seven elections, the percentages given are:
1980: Carter-45 Reagan-39 Anderson-14
1984: Mondale-67 Reagan-31
1988: Dukakis-64 Bush-35
1992: Clinton-80 Bush-11 Perot-9
1996: Clinton-78 Dole-16 Perot-3
2000: Gore-79 Bush-19 Nader-1
2004: Kerry-76 Bush-24
I do not see how the above date (assuming its accuracy) can be characterized as a steady rise of the GOP share of the Jewish vote for president. Rather, it appears that the GOP share of the Jewish vote peaked in the 30’s during the 1980’s, and since then has remained between 19% and 25% (counting Perot as a Republican, for present purposes).
I take no pleasure in pointing this out. As both a conservative and a supporter of Israel, I deplore the mindless attachment of the vast majority of American Jews to the Democratic party. One need only listen to a few conversations on politics at any nonOrthodox synagogue (including, unfortunately, Conservative shuls), or read a Federation newspaper, to learn how deep the American Jewish identification with the Democrats and the political and cultural left runs. Perhaps McCain will improve this showing in a race against Obama, but I doubt that he’ll get more than 30%.
March 26th, 2008 at 7:30 PM
Dan,
Your numbers may be correct but your reasoning is less convincing. The fact that Jews have voted mostly for Democrats in the last 7 elections (except Carter) is because on social policy issues and in terms of human appeal, the Republicans have not been attractive candidates (especially the Bushes). When Carter ran in 1980, he only got 45% of the Jewish vote. There are many more Jewish conservatives today than years ago (look at the support for Rudy Giuliani, for example). I would predict that Obama gets less than 40% of the Jewish vote if he runs against McCain. Obama is no friend of Israel and McCain very much is. He is also a much more appealing candidate than the Republicans have put up in years.
March 26th, 2008 at 7:41 PM
There are just too many people in Obama’s life who hate Israel and hate Jews. It can’t be a statistical fluke.
I am not convinced obama knows much about the world and the ME conflicts to have strong opinions. his background reveals him as somebody who blows with the wind of expediency, whatever promotes his political career. as a chicago politician he needed church and palestinians. as a presidential candidate he will tell the jews what they want to hear. he simply did not impose good discipline on his advisors, which also says he’s not too sharp.
the anti-israel attitudes that people are now displaying has to do with the ignorance of and unwilligness to face up to islamism/jihadism. in denial about that, the tendency is to scapegoat and the jews are simply a convenient, traditional target. it’s leading some to downright antisemitism, but many simply delude themselves that were it not for the jews and israel, america would not have so many problems. it’s just the usual reluctance to accept a difficult reality.
oao
http://fallofknowledgeandreason.blogspot.com/
March 26th, 2008 at 8:19 PM
Ms. Rubin’s political analysis is often sharp, but this post misses the mark.
The first wrong assumption is that Jews vote based on Israel questions. Some of them do, and more might do so if they perceived a candidate as truly anti-Israel. Most non-Orthodox Jews, however, vote based on a vestigial leftism that belies their economic status. As the bon mot goes, they have incomes like Episcopalians and vote like Puerto Ricans. Even though some proponents and opponents say the Iraq war was in part designed to benefit Israel, Jews are in their majority anti-war, and more so than the country as a whole.
The second wrong proposition is that the listed people are anti-Israel or anti-Jewish. Some of them may hold views closer to Meretz or Shimon Peres than to Bibi Netanyahu or Caroline Glick, but that’s not going to antagonize the anti-war majority of Jewish voters.
Finally, Obama has kissed the ring of AIPAC, and in his “more perfect union” speech, he was not wishy-washy about support for Israel. He has kissed the AIPAC ring and touched all the pro-Israel bases. He did so because of the constraints of American politics. These constraints will not go away even if Obama in his heart secretly yearned to back off a bit on the alliance with Israel. The hopes placed in Obama by those who would loosen US ties to Israel are unlikely to be realized, just as there will be no substantial relaxation of the Cuba embargo, and for similar reasons. The candidate’s sentiments are unimportant. Nixon was given to anti-Jewish remarks, but he appointed a Jewish Secretary of State and supplied Israel with arms in 1973.
What I fear from Obama is goo-goo internationalism, moving in the direction of the world Nanny State paid for by the U.S. taxpayer, billions thrown away based on the “root causes” meme, and “humanitarian’ interventions in places that have little to do with our national interest.
March 26th, 2008 at 8:29 PM
rlgordonma,
John McCain has not endorsed James Baker for twenty years. He did not attempt to excuse away Baker’s offensive remark.
Dishonest finger pointing wont cleanse the Obama camp of its anti-American, Anti-White and anti-Semitic stench.
Lester,
dem Joos always try to hide behind accusations of anti-Semitism, is that it? (Unlike Obama playing the race card every time he’s legitimately criticized.) You anti-Semites always say that.
It doesn’t look like America is going to elect a President who will kow tow to your mullahas in Iran. Too bad.
March 26th, 2008 at 9:06 PM
I actually think that every responder to Jennifer Rubin’s piece has a point. In terms of any impact a weakening of Jewish support will have upon Obama’s chances in the general election, an increase to only thirty per cent of that vote by McCain could make a difference in Ohio, Pennsylvania and perhaps Michigan. If McCain wins in these states, the election will be his by a decisive electoral college margin.