Why Hillary Supporters Might Abandon Obama
- 03.27.2008 - 8:27 AMMany commentators are buzzing over a Gallup poll (and a similar NBC/Wall Street Journal one) showing that 28% of Hillary Clinton supporters would support John McCain if Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee and that 19% of Obama supporters would do the same if she is the nominee. Gallup explains:
It is unknown how many Democrats would actually carry through and vote for a Republican next fall if their preferred candidate does not become the Democratic nominee. The Democratic campaign is in the heat of battle at the moment, but by November, there will have been several months of attempts to build party unity around the eventual nominee — and a focus on reasons why the Republican nominee needs to be defeated. . . Still, when almost 3 out of 10 Clinton supporters say they would vote for McCain over Obama, it suggests that divisions are running deep within the Democratic Party. If the fight for the party’s nomination were to continue until the Denver convention in late August, the Democratic Party could suffer some damage as it tries to regroup for the November general election.
If you consider who a typical Clinton voter is the poll makes quite a bit of sense: older, white, and working-class voters who place a premium on experience and may have bought her “3 a.m.” argument. Sound like potential “gets” for McCain, right? (Then, of course, there are the voters offended and scared off by the Reverend Wright affiliation, but liberal bloggers say that’s all behind us so we won’t worry about them. For now.)
In most elections you see “Republicans for [fill in the name of the Democratic nominee]” groups spring up. They usually are not terribly Republican to begin with and profess that “never before” has the Republican party offered someone so extreme, so conservative, etc. This election there may be groups, real groups, of “Democrats for McCain,” who simply conclude that Obama is too liberal or too inexperienced to be president. Even if the final number isn’t 28%, a fifth or a tenth of that figure may spell trouble for the Democrats, if he’s the eventual nominee.
How long before Clinton’s team starts making this very argument to superdelegates?
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March 27th, 2008 at 9:14 AM
The poll you cite is a one example and the Rasmussen tracking polls are another of how Obama has been hurt seriously by the Wright affair. The NBC-WSJ polls claims he hasn’t, but as commented before, polls that ask people about racially or religiously sensitive issues are often inaccurate because a certain percentage of people don’t tell the truth. The Rasmussen and Gallup polls directly contradict the NBC-WSJ one, so take your pick on whom to believe.
There are many voters who supported Hillary who will not vote for Obama. All of us know people like that, so anecodotal evidence corroborates the national polling here. The key will be to watch the new few primaries and see how well Hillary does. If she wins PA by less than 10%, that would be a bad sign for her. If she wins by more than 10%, she even has a chance of winning NC and IN.
Barring a disaster for McCain, I don’t see how Obama can beat him.
March 27th, 2008 at 9:30 AM
Just out of curiosity, was there comparable polling done during the Republican primary. In other words, did any pollsters ask Republicans after South Carolina or New Hampshire “Would you vote for Sen. Clinton or Sen. Obama if Sen. McCain is the nominee?” If those numbers existed, it would be interesting to see how they compare at the height of the talk radio assault on Sen. McCain, versus these figures for the Democratic race right now. I know that the concern on the Republican side was more that conservative voters would stay home, as opposed to voting for the Democratic nominee, but it would be interesting to see if there was any comparable data. Or, better yet, if any poll asked Republican voters whether or not they would stay home and refuse to vote in the generals, if Sen. McCain were the nominee.
March 27th, 2008 at 9:35 AM
Well as you undoubtedly know, my favorite pundit Dick Morris has been insisting that the superdelegates will never, ever risk alienating the black vote. Only Barry himself could calm those waters, and I don’t know what would impel him to do so now that the feuding with Hillary has so escalated. Marty Peretz, the doddering bellwether of New York Jewish intellectual, hence upscale Democrat, opinion, slavers over the “Holmesian logic” of his refusal to disown Rev.Wright. (I wonder what Felix Frankfurter would have thought about that.) I keep wondering why any sane superdelegate would resign himself to either aspirant. (Meantime I’m sure there’s been a run on aspirin.)
March 27th, 2008 at 9:38 AM
Plenty of leftists will vote for Senator McCain out of spite when their favored Democrat candidate is knocked out of the race. Plenty of moderate Democrats will vote for McCain regardless of which Democrat candidate is still in the race.
Senator Clinton is so power mad she probably already went crying to the superdelegates. The Democrats are in trouble no matter which candidate they nominate.
March 27th, 2008 at 9:47 AM
If “Holmesian logic” means fatalistic determinism bordering on the Koranic, maybe Peretz is (inadvertently) correct. Holmes’s had such a personality streak.
March 27th, 2008 at 9:47 AM
“Marty Peretz, the doddering bellwether of New York Jewish intellectual, hence upscale Democrat, opinion…”
Marty Peretz is no longer the bellwether of anything, if he ever was. He may tell you how Upper West Side ultra-libs are rationalizing the Obama fiasco, but in the rest of the city and the tri-state area, I am finding it extremely hard to find more than a few affluent Jews who are sticking to Obama. Quite a large number will either stay at home or vote for McCain.
March 27th, 2008 at 9:55 AM
For those relics of the 1960’s who still think New York is an ultraliberal place with Marty Peretz as its bellweather, doddering or otherwise, every neighborhood in Manhattan voted for Hillary except 2 - Central Harlem and Greenwich Village/Chelsea. Even the Upper West Side went for Hillary.
If the DNC disses Hillary, McCain has a decent shot of even winning NY State and NJ.
March 27th, 2008 at 9:57 AM
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March 27th, 2008 at 10:09 AM
Ellen S, I take it that if Hillary is nominated, you will vote for her?
March 27th, 2008 at 10:13 AM
It’s far more likely that the most ticked-off Hillary supporters would just stay home in November or vote only for the Democrats running for Congress, etc., in their districts. They would have real trouble bringing themselves to vote for a Republican.
The possible exception could be those Jewish liberals who still strongly support Israel; they might be scared enough by Obama’s anti-Israel program and entourage to actually vote for McCain.
Hillary herself would not be above inciting her people behind the scenes to undercut Obama. As has been noted here and there, Obama’s loss in November could give her one more chance in 2012. As long as she could stand at arm’s length from such a sabotage effort, it might succeed.