Nailbiting Time
- 04.20.2008 - 1:34 PMThe punditocracy is worried about Barack Obama. Maureen Dowd isn’t pleased with his debate performance (although she explains it’s because he really operates on a higher plane than mere mortal politicians):
The thorny questions Obama got in the debate were absolutely predictable, yet he seemed utterly unprepared and annoyed by them. He did not do well for the same reason he failed to outmaneuver Hillary in a year’s worth of debates: he disdains the convention, the need for sound bites and witty flick-offs and game-changing jabs.
Eleanor Clift was dismayed that he “spoke haltingly much of the time” and was “on the defensive,” and she now wonders if Obama would be a nominee “whose vulnerabilities boost chances of a Republican victory in the fall.” And others (here and here and here) are equally dismayed. Some are downright disgusted by the gap between Obama’s high-minded appeal to “new politics” and the cynical realities of his campaign. Some are disappointed by the fact that “it’s still true that after so many months of promising hard truths, Obama doesn’t really force people to accept any.”
Did one debate performance do all that? Was media confidence in him so shaky that a few tough questions from ABC moderators could send his standings into a tailspin? There is a bipolar quality to such opinion shifts: one day Obama is the messiah of American politics, the next he’s a deeply flawed candidate. And the public fretting that Hillary Clinton’s criticism prefigures eventual GOP attacks highlights a central problem for Obama: isn’t he going to be vulnerable when the GOP does launch its salvos?
But all this fretting is really to be expected: Obama has staked everything on his verbal acuity. When that fails, he has no safety net. He cannot point to tough campaigns or great legislative achievements to assure his base that he’s been through worse. So it all comes down to sustaining the balloon of excitement and novelty he has created.
Likewise, when Obama’s strange, far-Left associations come to the fore, or when his musings about average Americans make the news, the thin veneer of moderation and post-partisanship is torn. It makes people like Clift worry. And their fear is not entirely irrational.
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April 20th, 2008 at 3:16 PM
And therein lies the rub.
Hillary Clinton also lacks any tough campaigns or great legislative achievements. In fact, her greatest legislative achievement was a colossal failure that not only did not get the legislation passed but cost the party 50 seats in the house and 10 in the Senate and delivered the Congress to the Republicans for the first time in 40 years.
The bottom line on Obama remains, though. Unless the party determines it can win with under 75% of the black vote, he’s already won. Since they have never won without at least the high 80s of the black vote, that is highly unlikely.
Mrs. Clinton needs to have something on the order of 80% of the Super Delegates, or more, back her over Obama. Since the breakdown has been strongly towards Obama since Feb 5th, and since Obama still has a bunch of Super Delegates that will back him in the states he crushed Hillary in, not to mention states like NC, OR, MT and SD which he will crush her in, and since ther party bigwigs like Pelosi, Dean and Gore are in his corner even if they haven’t said so publicly yet, her burden is in reality even higher.
Only a scandal that requires Obama to withdraw from the race on the level of what happened to Gary Hart in 1988 will keep him from the nomination.
But the Party can’t push Clinton to the side because she’s still raising money and her and Bill still instill fear among them and command significant loyalties. So the endgame is apparent. After June 3rd, the Supers, and more importantly the bigwigs Pelosi, Dean, Gore will all come out for Obama. Clinton will soldier on like Reagan in 76 or Kennedy in 80, hoping for a miracle at the convention. Obama will be nominated on the 1st ballot.
April 20th, 2008 at 3:49 PM
“The bottom line on Obama remains, though. Unless the party determines it can win with under 75% of the black vote, he’s already won. Since they have never won without at least the high 80s of the black vote, that is highly unlikely.”
Amen. The Democrats are stuck with Obama. That train has already left the station. Hillary Clinton is subconsciously trying to help John McCain. She believes that he will likely be in office for only one term and that will open the door for her in 2012.
April 20th, 2008 at 4:12 PM
Barack Obama is a fraud. He’s nothing but an old school, Hyde Park extreme leftist. He gives great speeches when he’s not being pressed and makes people feel good. But in the middle of a debate when the pressure is on, he wilts.
Just wait until the Republicans have a chance to go at him for his past toxic associations (Wright, Rezko, Ayres, plus several others that haven’t been as widely publicized as of yet, like the past PLO operative that he has helped raise money) as well as the fact that he gutlessly voted “present” over 130 times as an Illinois state senator to avoid actually having to take a stand on a particular issue. And that’s not even taking into account his voting record in the U.S. Senate, which has been rated as THE single most liberal voting record of all 100 senators. Hey, when you can be rated to the left of people like Ted Kenney, Chris Dodd and Russ Feingold, you’ve really accomplished something!
Barack Obama is simply not tough enough, experienced enough or decisive enough to be president of the United States and his politics are way out of step with those of the American public.
April 20th, 2008 at 4:13 PM
Thank you for joining the ranks of the punditry that youve been scorning. Assuming you can count, assuming you can think for yourself. assuming you know at least something about political science, then you should see what should be obvious. Obama has NO chance at the democratic nomination. None. The same idiots you’ve been criticizing have also been acting like it is a fait acompi that Obama will be the nominee. That view is just as out of touch with reality as everything else. In case you didnt notice Obama’s lead n the popular vote is 0.06%. He will be behind after Tues. And his lead in delegates is 61 counting Fla and Mich.and as everyone knows, that lead is only because he gamed the moronic Democratic system of apportioning delegates. Obama is not going to have to worry about handlng GOP attacks. He is going to be home where it doesnt matter.
April 20th, 2008 at 4:31 PM
Ragin Cajun
While I do Believe that Obama will win the nomination, you are overstating the case. For Hillary to need 80% of the Super Delegates, Obama would need to be ahead by about 470 Pledged Delegates. A more likely senario is that his lead in PD’s will remain at about the 160 mark. That, I think, is enough because the SD’s look likely to back the PD winner. Still I for one will continue to bite my nails. Should anything come along to convince the SD’s that only Clinton is electable they can very easily give it to her.
Also the Black Vote while important does not seal the deal. There is no proof that it is more vital than the women vote, the redneck vote, ore the old people vote, all of whome generaly favour Hillary. The National Polls show perhaps a slight favouring to Obama, but its a thin advantage.
April 20th, 2008 at 4:31 PM
MDR,
I think your math is wrong about the popular vote totals. Also, I agree with you that the Democrats’ proportional voting system is silly, but that is the system they have. Given that, how can Hillary Clinton succeed in persuading 80% of the uncommitted super-delegates to support her, particularly since their doing so would alienate the Democrats’ African-American base?
April 20th, 2008 at 4:36 PM
The debate has no great effect in the public eye unless a canidate makes a major blunder. Obama had a lackluste perfromance and Hillarys was not much better despite her opponent having taken most of the punishment. Obama is the nominee like him or not and really the only reason I believe Obama is not quite as quick to counter Hillary’s attack is because they are both democrats. Think about it, if he were as negative to Hillary as she is to him it would alienate her supporters come election time. Obama realizes he is almost assuredly going to be the nominee so why further divide himself from the losers supporters? I expect a stronger more iron fisted Obama come the general election.
April 20th, 2008 at 4:38 PM
“Obama has NO chance at the democratic nomination. None.”
Obviously, someone has been drinking too much rum. You can take this to the bank: Obama will not only win the democratic nomination, he will whip the dust out of McRusty come November!
This is a guy with fresh ideas who has breathed inspiration and excitement into an otherwise dull political exercise. He has won in the east as well as the west; in the north as well as the south. He is brilliant, ethical and absolutely superb, unlike the airhead we now have in the white house, or the lying, deceptive female contestant, or the good but old veteran.
Obama has shown that he can win in the swing states. He will also win the traditional democratic states. Obama is our man.
Go OBAMA! Yes we can!
April 20th, 2008 at 4:39 PM
you write as though your brain is floating in a pool of pure nonsense.
Mr. Obama is a candidate, as fully-fledged as any other, droll policy plans and all. Yet you manufacture a world where he is not a coherent person, but just the gilded echo of a speech on a hill, a feather of maudlin hope floating into a meadow.
He is not a novelty. I doubt he is a secret liberal terrorist, or a secret liberal terrorist lover.
Your journalism is dark and stupid.
April 20th, 2008 at 4:45 PM
The post from MDR is an extremely inaccurate post by the way is popular vote lead is 3%. In order for Hillary to catch up with that she needs to get around 58% of the remaining vote total. Check http://www.RealClearPolitics.com for the numbers. Perhaps you are still under the impression that Michigan and Florida counted in which case he is up by 0.4%, however they did not count. Thats just the way it is the people who are upset by that need to move on because its not changing and I dont feel Obama is somehow blocking the votes either. The thought process that Obama has so much power in the party that he can somehow block elections is unbelievably unaccurate, if anything that power would reside with the Clintons. Bottom line she can still win the Popular vote however she needs to get 57-58% of the remaining vote which will be very difficult. Anything under that number in any remaining state is a loss and she has yet to meet that number in many states.