As this chart shows, there has been a small uptick for Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania, with a couple of polls now showing her ahead by 10 points. If she wins, as now seems very likely, the expectations game will be in full swing. The Clinton team will pursue the line that Barack Obama spent a fortune to knock her out and failed, while the Obama team will pick a percentage she should have reached (sufficiently beyond any probable outcome) to justify their sure-to-be-forthcoming argument that her win was really a “loss.”

So what is the “right” measure? Barring a blowout, there likely will be no consensus, with each side arguing to the media and superdelegates its talking points. (I think I know which side those 40 journos will take.) But Clinton will gain some momentum and confidence from a win that is better than a squeaker. And there will be no getting her out of the race before June.

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This entry was posted on Tuesday, April 22nd, 2008 at 8:05 AM and is filed under Contentions. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.