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- 05.07.2008 - 7:37 AMIf you want to know what Hillary’s strategist, Harold Ickes, might whisper in the ears of superdelegates if she decides to stay in and fight, here is a good taste. Nothing quite beats Paul Begala lecturing Donna Brazile that Democrats can’t win with a coalition of “eggheads and African Americans.” After that exchange, you can probably add one more superdelegate (Brazile) to the Obama column. Gotta love that Clinton light touch.
But before Republicans get excited about the possibilty of vicious infighting that will torment Democrats, those Republicans should keep in mind two things. First, eventually there will be a nominee (whether May or June or August) and a final night of the convention where everyone will raise hands together and declare undying loyalty. Most of those Clinton supporters, especially ones committed enough to vote in a primary, will vote Democratic in November. And there are a lot more registered Democrats than there used to be.
Second, Obama is a fast learner. His speech last night included a heavy dose of heartfelt appreciation for America, reverence for the land of opportunity and lots of empathy for working class voters. Like a vacuum cleaner, he is sucking up the Clintonian message to blue collar voters and absorbing the rhetoric which has successfully lured a coalition of working class whites, seniors and women. Don’t expect any more Snobgate slip-ups.
In short, the fun for conservatives is at an end.
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May 7th, 2008 at 8:02 AM
Jennifer is absolutely correct: a Democratic landslide from the top of the ticket to the bottom is forming for November. The Republican defeats in recent House races are a clear presage of that disaster. Gingrich’s recent admonition to his former colleagues is much too late. If ordinary grass roots people like myself and other bloggers have been saying this for months, why do the party elites awake to the situation now? Is it what some have said about a second marriage? The triumph of hope over reality.
May 7th, 2008 at 8:36 AM
A Democratic landslide? Good luck with that. You’re about to nominate a dark-skinned Dukakis. Don’t cry racism this November — if you nominate an inexperienced, corrupt, anti-American racist whose only message is “hopin’ fer change” then you get what you deserve.
May 7th, 2008 at 8:37 AM
It was interesting to see that roughly a quarter of Republicans decided they couldn’t hold their nose and vote for McCain. His promise to appoint conservative judges, one he couldn’t deliver on given the coming Democratic capture of both houses, won’t be enough to win them back. In fact, his return to “comprehensive” immigration reform, the deal he cooked up with Teddy Kennedy, guarantees McCain will go into November certain only of the support of the Bushes and the old counry club RINOs.
May 7th, 2008 at 8:38 AM
Conservatism and the political party that represents its ideas is done for–dead on arrival.
The evidence is right here:
http://www.theobjectivestandard.com/issues/2006-fall/decline-fall-american-conservatism.asp
May 7th, 2008 at 8:47 AM
I took a look at (cough) the Objective Standard mentioned above. A liberal college professor presides over the obsequies. ‘Nuff said?
May 7th, 2008 at 8:47 AM
In the land of the illegal immigrant, where I come from, there is nothing left to “conserve”. Almost everything and everybody from my youth has been replaced by the “Si Se Puede” crowd. It’s hard to get a majority when your people have been illegally made into a minority.
May 7th, 2008 at 9:01 AM
McCain has a very good chance to win in November if he picks an unconventional VP candidate (like maybe Bobby Jindal, although nobody seems to know anything about him beyond that he is an Indian American who got elected Governor in a poor Southern state). The old-style Republican Party is clearly gone, and McCain must come up with new ideas and new policy platforms. Newt Gingrich is right about the worthlessness of the old Republican slogans, but he is part of the problem not the solution. He offered 9 steps that the Republicans should take to start their Reformation. Most of them (like gas tax holiday, diverting oil from the strategic reserve into the market thus lowering the price of gas by 6 cents) are trivial and propagandistic. This nonsense as a substitute for well-thought out conservative but realistic 21st century policy is what has put the Republicans in the situation they are now in.
McCain is moving in the right direction by advocating a sensible energy and conservation policy that moves American away from its addiction to oil, and moves the Republican party away from its addiction to oil company donations. This is part of the image problem that this party has. You can’t be in thrall to selfish, brain dead corporate executives and brain dead industries(like oil) and expect to win the middle, working, and educated class.
The Republican party officialdom will have to be substantially overhauled with a lot of attrition from the elected ranks, and that will probably happen in the fall in Congress anyway. That won’t prevent McCain from winning necessarily, if he distances himself from Bush and the party, and has other people show relentlessly who Obama really is.
May 7th, 2008 at 9:03 AM
As depressed as I am about the chances for Republicans this fall, I am cheered by one very significant question. Those who believe Obama will take this need to convince me that Obama can take states that neither Gore nor Kerry were able to carry. Obama has trouble relating to Jews — there goes Florida. And as fast a learner as he may be, it will be impossible for him or his wife to not offend working class people, gun owners, etc. sometime between now and November. There goes PA and OH, maybe even WI. Now, at the same time tell me which states that went for Bush are now going to go for Obama?
It’s going to be a very close race
May 7th, 2008 at 9:11 AM
That’s quite the interesting essay (albeit almost two years old). But I have a hard time seeing it as evidence of anything.
For one, it’s an opinion column — a well-thought-out one, but an opinion column nonetheless. And any scientist will cheerfully remind you that opinions don’t PROVE anything.
The nature of those opinions also gives me pause. C. Bradley Thompson does a very good job of knocking down straw men, and then concealing his efforts to construct them in the first place. (Search for phrases such as “some assert” or “many conservative theorists believe”, and you’ll see what I mean. Such statements mean nothing… but they are used as the basis for many of his assertions about conservatism in general and the Republican Party in particular.)
Mr. Thompson uses “scare quotes” quite a bit, but doesn’t quote actual people that much. For example, while he spends quite a bit of time criticizing President Bush’s compassionate conservatism (and defining it by his own standards), he doesn’t actually quote the President, by my count, until paragraph 49.
He does a similar job of defining neoconservatism, by his own lights, and then explaining how ridiculous it is — although some tenets of neoconservatism, as he describes them, are unrecognizable to me.
The result is that some conclusions are reached that are simply absurd — such as equating neoconservatism with socialism, or referring to President Bush as the “feel your pain” President (ignoring the blindingly obvious counterexample in his predecessor).
There is much to criticize in the Republican Party, to be sure; and it’s certain, at least to me, that modern American conservatism doesn’t hold all the answers. But to describe it as “dead on arrival” is nonsense.
Please remember: in November 2008, we can predict, will all-but-absolute certainty, that at least 40% of the American electorate will vote Democratic, and at least 40% will vote Republican. (The election will be decided, of course, by the elusive 20% in the middle.) Any party that can attract that kind of following is by no means “dead on arrival”.
And that applies to Democrats just as much as it does to Republicans.
respectfully,
Daniel in Brookline
May 7th, 2008 at 9:43 AM
I was one of those Republicans who cast a protest vote against McCain. It was a free opportunity to send a message to the McCain campaign. However, in November, McCain will have my vote. Obama (the likely opponent) is totally unacceptable on so many levels I can’t begin to catalogue them all.