Comments on: Here’s The Rub

By: Steve Rogers

Steve Rogers — Thu, 08 May 2008 02:07:21 +0000

Fresh Air,

I agree, but substitute “unctious” for “smooth.” Obama is an oily attorney, after all.

By: Fresh Air

Fresh Air — Wed, 07 May 2008 21:00:46 +0000

Right, nacl. (1) Bush’s economy isn’t all that bad; and (2) Obama isn’t a “smooth black Kennedy” or anything close. Try a smooth, half-black McGovern.

By: nacl

nacl — Wed, 07 May 2008 20:46:24 +0000

The Rub is not Obama’s demography but Bush’s economy; also a general sense that America is bumping along on the wrong track and needs a new direction. The intensity of that feeling aligns with the appeal of a smooth black Kennedy.

By: Fresh Air

Fresh Air — Wed, 07 May 2008 18:58:15 +0000

The electoral map is very difficult for Obama. He has probably already lost Pennsylvania. If he loses Michigan and Ohio as well, he’s finished. The VP pick is simply a gambit. No one even knows who Webb is outside of Virginia and D.C. Perhaps it could net him Virginia, perhaps not. But Webb won’t deliver any other states that matter.

The question is, Can McCain put Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and New York in play? If he can, can he also hold Missouri, Iowa and Ohio. If he does these things, the race is essentially over.

By: Rininger

Rininger — Wed, 07 May 2008 16:34:31 +0000

There aren’t enough Black racists, snot-noses and moonbats in this country to put the anointed one in office. He couldn’t appeal to the middle if he made cash donations.

He can and probably will continue to claim that McCain is a Bush clone and that America is an evil, racist, sexist country that can only be saved by his inexperienced hand. That should go over well with the average voter.

By: Seth Halpern

Seth Halpern — Wed, 07 May 2008 16:04:16 +0000

Robert Gruber: Just out of curiosity, do you think Maverick’s apparent refusal to vote for Bush in 2000 was “childish” or merely insane?

By: phantomgourmand

phantomgourmand — Wed, 07 May 2008 15:24:05 +0000

A couple of points:

1. I agree that Republicans this cycle would be crazy to sit things out in order to protest McCain. Obama would be an unmitigated disaster on issues like national security, judges, and tax policy.

2. I tend to agree with ECM and Bruce about Obama’s electibility problems. Does anyone remember how John Kerry was polling at this time in 2004? I seem to remember him being ahead of Bush by quite a nice margin, but I forget the details. This comparison could help gauge Obama’s potential.

By: Bruce, NV

Bruce, NV — Wed, 07 May 2008 14:57:19 +0000

As I mentioned earlier, if BHO can’t draw more than 40% of the white vote in swing states, he can’t win. He’s appealing to the left-most party of the Democrat party. Meanwhile, MI, for one, will be a hard row for BHO to hoe.

By: lester

lester — Wed, 07 May 2008 14:54:53 +0000

again, the vp pick is crucial

By: ECM

ECM — Wed, 07 May 2008 14:51:34 +0000

I tend to agree with Jon S. here: the math just isn’t in Obama’s favor. Add in the fact that, regardless of how much he dresses up his issues (and I don’t mean his Wright/Ayers probles, though they will be a factor), he’s still a dyed-in-the-wool, hard-leftist.

Also, and though this is absurdly anecdotal, I look to my MSM-focused family and see that even they are very uncomfortable with the idea of the great and all-powerful ‘O’–all apologies to Ms. Winfrey (as well as the wizard)–as president is starting to make even them uncomfortable (something I could not have said in January, when they were dazzled by his 10,000 watt smile and oily smoothness and was “unbeatable” in the words of one CNN-o-phile).

By: Robert Gruber

Robert Gruber — Wed, 07 May 2008 14:43:29 +0000

Calling all fellow Republicans: You have a civic duty, an obligation if you will, to vote. All this chatter about McCain not meeting your criteria regarding a particular issue as a disqualifier for your vote is childish. You have a choice. It’s actually a pretty clear one. If you have to hold your nose when you vote for McCain, so be it. But you owe it to yourself, your political party, and your country to make a choice. If its Obama, well, I question your Republican sanity, but at least you have done (aside from paying your taxes) what little this democracy asks of you; you voted.

By: paul zisserson

paul zisserson — Wed, 07 May 2008 14:33:12 +0000

I have a question that needs answering. If Clinton’s share of the white vote in Indiana and North Carolina were roughly the same, why was the vote in Indiana so close. I’m sure that the share of the black vote in Indiana was not even close to that in North Carolina. Has anyone seen a more specific breakdown for Indiana? Was there a low white turnour compared to black?

By: Jeeves

Jeeves — Wed, 07 May 2008 14:21:37 +0000

Seth: I’m an Arizonan and started voting GOP in 1976. Maverick has put that vote in jeopardy with his promise to speak in front of The American Council of The Race. Part of his “biography tour” I guess. Certainly not part of his reaching out to conservatives. Oh well, he’ll win AZ without me, so I have the luxury of not voting for the lesser evil.

By: Jon S.

Jon S. — Wed, 07 May 2008 13:51:11 +0000

For a number of reasons, Obama’s campaign is much thinner in its support than the MSM or most conservative bloggers seem to think. I keep harping on this b/c head to head nationwide polls are meaningless (and even if you believe them they show a much closer race than any Republican typically has this far in advance of the election), but let’s please focus on the only game that counts: the Electoral College.

So: what states is Obama going to win that Kerry did not, and conversely can McCain pick up a few states that Bush lost? At this point, it sure looks to me that Obama will not pick up any sizable red state and that McCain stands poised to pick off a few big blue states.

By: lester

lester — Wed, 07 May 2008 13:47:36 +0000

obama will probably havea vp pick that will appeal to this democraphic. Webb maybe

By: Bob Miller

Bob Miller — Wed, 07 May 2008 13:44:56 +0000

The McCain campaign needs a message and then needs to stay on message.

It will have to cope with near-unanimous criticism and ridicule from the old and new media (this treatment being a new experience for McCain), and Obama’s well-financed and well-conceived voter identification/mobilization effort.

I’d like to see some sign of commitment and professionalism.

By: Seth Halpern

Seth Halpern — Wed, 07 May 2008 13:34:12 +0000

If Maverick gives La Raza a dose of sovereign American straight-talk (or, better yet, finds a non-racist, non-irredentist Mexican substitute to address), I promise he’s got my vote. If he sucks up to them, I’m sure he figures he doesn’t need or want it. I live in New Mexico. I have voted Republican in 8 straight presidential elections. Clear enough?

By: cavalier

cavalier — Wed, 07 May 2008 13:06:52 +0000

McCain got a nice start on the marginalization of Barak with his comments on Roberts yesterday and he and the campaign need to push that line relentlessly but also, as you seem to intimate expand it into other policy areas. As you say, they will need to do so with skill and consistency but I think McCain has a real chance of success.

The good thing is that even in those areas where McCain would seem to be weakest in respect of the policy preferances of the public he has demonstrated real strength with independants. While laying a powerful claim to being the most hawkish Republican and the most vocal and effective advocate of the surge he was also able to garner the votes of many independants opposed to the war and skeptical about the surge during the primaries. Here to his very real experience (as opposed to the pretended expertise of Hillary - as Marybel notes above) will be a substantive asset.

By: Steven

Steven — Wed, 07 May 2008 13:05:02 +0000

MCain has no “experience” voting “present.” You may not like his positions, but he has them.

Obama says what he thinks his audiences want to hear. McCain tells his audiences what he believes. That approach doesn’t always sit well, but in the end, honesty often prevails. I guess we’ll see if cheery, but empty, promises trumps hard reality with the electorate come November. Yes, Obama will sprint to the middle. McCain is already there.

Then again, much of America takes political advice from Rosie O’Donnell…So, jump ball.

Steven from Indiana

By: Marybel

Marybel — Wed, 07 May 2008 12:29:56 +0000

At least part of the reason that “experience” didn’t get Hillary very far was that what she had was flimsy at best and she lied about even that. McCain may do better with that tack as part of his campaign.