More on Florida
- 05.16.2008 - 12:34 PMWith regard to Barack Obama’s chances in Florida, there has been much focus on his problems with Jewish voters. But his stance on Cuba is just as problematic. Florida’s he large Cuban American population voted overwhelmingly in the GOP primary McCain (and arguably made the difference in outcome). Next week both candidates will speak before the Cuban American National Foundation, and Obama (presumably) will have to explain his stance on direct, unconditional talks with Raul Castro.
But that’s not the only Florida community that may have problems with Obama’s foreign policy views. His aversion to the Colombia Free Trade agreement and his willingness to meet with Hugo Chavez unconditionally may not sit well with other Hispanics in Florida (or elsewhere for that matter). With Chavez back in the news and further evidence of his mischief-making emerging, McCain is likely to continue his emphasis on regional security threats. (He has frequently raised these issues when campaigning in Florida.)
This, coupled with Obama’s unrealistic and provocative threat to rip up NAFTA, has given McCain an opening to argue that he, not Obama, would improve relations in our hemisphere. What were popular positions for Obama in Rust Belt states and with left-leaning Democratic primary audiences may turn out to be far less appealing in a general election–and in Florida specifically.
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May 16th, 2008 at 12:51 PM
You’re probably right about the Cuban-American vote in Florida, although it’s mostly Repubican anyway, no?
BHO was right, of course, about Cuba. Almost 60 years of embargo hasn’t been a smashing success. What’s the old cliché about repeating the same behavior and expecting different results?
May 16th, 2008 at 1:20 PM
The embargo has succeeded in keeping American currency out of Castro’s hands. If for no other reason, that has made embargo worthwhile.
Considering that Castro and his enforcers have been starving and torturing the Cuban people since Buddy Holly was still alive, getting the dates wrong is a forgivable error. But still, it’s more correct to say that the embargo has been in place for almost 50 years, rather than 60.
May 16th, 2008 at 2:06 PM
#2
You’re right on the math, but it hardly changes the analysis.
Had the embargo been relaxed years ago, the pull of US economy and culture (for all its warts) would very likely have had a substantial effect.
Our Cuba policy has been a creature of domestic politics, not strategic analysis.
May 16th, 2008 at 2:36 PM
“a creature of domestic politics, not strategic analysis.”
Well that’s been true for many of America’s foreign-policy questions through the years–esp. those focused on Ireland, Italy, Israel, South Africa, China, etc., etc., etc.
It may well be that America’s cultural/economic “pull” might have induced Castro to take a different line. There is no way to know for sure. But what we do know for sure is that Castro himself has denounced the embargo all along. There is no reason to think that he desired policies that would have shortened his reign.
May 16th, 2008 at 4:02 PM
GOM says: “What’s the old cliché about repeating the same behavior and expecting different results?”
But then that’s why it’s a cliche, and not an argument for some imagined results given different behavior–because it is only in your mind where these results reside.
Falling back on the suggestion that the pull of the “US economy and culture would very likely have had a substantial effect” is equally weak. Where does this effect show up in the Carribean? Haiti is a worse basket case. In Central America? Take your pick. In South America? Venezuela’s Chavez thinks he’s the second coming of Fidel. Is that the substantial effect you had in mind?
Where is it written that the US should trade with what is effectively a communist island prison. Economic sanctions are a policy tool. The policy is isolation. That the political regime has not collapsed is not a sign of policy failure. Lifting the sanctions would now reward the regime for doing nothing in return. I’d call that counter-productive diplomacy.
Your mileage may vary.
May 16th, 2008 at 7:13 PM
grump,
While dreamers may have hoped it would topple Castro the embargo achieved what it set out to do–prevent Castro’s regime access to our capital markets. It did not as some suggest push Castro into Russia’s arms. It was there already. As a result it ended up being a massive drain on Russia’s treasury.
Fast forward to the last ten years or so when the cries for lifting the embargo have gotten the loudest we find folks thinking that lifting the embargo would seduce Castro et al to moving our direction while simultaneously easing the enforced burden on the average Cuban. A canard at best. Lost in the debate is the fact that the entire world already does business with Cuba. Canada of all places lines his pockets with tourists as does Europe.
That said there has been no sign of any trickle down to the Cuban people as a whole. To our credit through all administrations we have kept out promise to Fidel–you will be rotting in hell when we lift the embargo. Given his health we’ll be lifting the embargo soon.
May 16th, 2008 at 10:50 PM
Cubans have great teeth.
May 17th, 2008 at 8:28 AM
Well now, let’s see.
Before Barry stopped believing in and identifying with the mutterings of his pastor, which was after Wright was still his pastor, but no longer his spiritual mentor [even though, if the handlers are to be believed, Wright never ever actually was his spiritual mentor, but only his pastor, and spiritual advisor] it is, nevertheless, common cause that during that great “Golden Period”, namely, them twenty years during which Barry could “no more separate himself from his pastor and his statements and attitudes, than from his “racist” white grandmother”, that Barry’s pastor was really, like really, out there, winning friends and influencing people.
Sadly, it was only after Barry saw that Wright was a losing proposition that “under the bus he went”.
Wright had, however, apparently managed to engage in numerous “outreach” efforts to other faith and ethnic communities, without his best congregant ever having had any inkling thereof, throughout those twenty or so magical years, that Obamah sat, with his family, in the front pew, of the great influencer’s peaceful church.
Having started, initially, on [as Barry’s pastor’s best friend described them] the practitioners of “a gutter religion”, Wright swiftly moved on to the “garlic noses” of New York and its environs, and then, to comments about the migratory patterns of certain American Poultry species.
Barry’s pastor was, unbeknownst to the objects of his ire, creating an entire nation of folks, unworthy of his his acceptance.
Then, after the terrible, terrible bus accident, when Barry no longer had the angelic Reverend Wright to kick around, came Barry’s own contributory remarks about smalltown America, with its mean and atavistic practices, clasping their firearms and their Bibles to their bosoms, in a most unsophisticated manner.
Now, its alienate Cuban and Colombian-Americans week, and others, too.
Way to go, oh great post-divisive messiah, unifier of America. Whose next, the bicycle riders?
May 17th, 2008 at 8:28 PM
Latest polls show Barack losing the Jewish vote. Only 61% support him, as opposed to 75% for the democrat most years. Shocking, no?
May 17th, 2008 at 11:07 PM
hamutzi - get help. The Reverend Wright fixation says more about you than it does about Obama.
arthur waldron - once Hillary is gone, these numbers will rise for Obama. Don’t forget there’s still another Dem candidate out there.